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Kerry lost August because the Bush campaign and their surrogates attacked mercilessly via the Swift Boat thing. It didn't matter that there was little basis to the charges. This left Kerry playing defense, backpedaling, and the current attacks on Bush's national Guard service are a day-late / dollar-short response to that.
Perhaps more lasting, though, is the label of "flip-flopper" that the Bush campaign has successfully labelled Kerry with (they've "Gore"d him). It didn't matter that there was little basis to those charges, either. The day after, and I mean THE DAY AFTER, Bush ran his first ad quoting Kerry saying "I actually voted for the $87B before I voted against it", the Kerry campaign should have come out with an ad counterattacking, and labelling Bush with the same and worse: "Bush was actually against the $87B before he was for it, because he wanted to saddle YOU wit the debt! You wanna talk 'flip-flops'?... " (rest of commercial could have run through a list: Against Dept. of H.S., then for it, Against a 9-11 Commission, then for it, Against nation-building, then for it...)
This would have nipped the entire "flip-flop" thing in the bud and turned it on Bush. Without such rapid response, Bush was allowed to set the debate, and determine what the CV is. He did it to Gore, he's doing it to Kerry.
The lesson is, start on OFFENSE. Attack attack attack.
But if there's a charge and you have to go on defense, do so IMMEDIATELY, and ALWAYS combine it wit a counter-attack.
If Kerry had done so immediately with the flip-flop charge, Bush would have dropped it like the coward he is (he knows he's even more of a flip-flopper).
If Kerry had done so immediately with the Viet nam issue, Bush would have dropped it like the coward he is (he knows his service can't stand up to the same scrutiny as Kerry's).
I am not being pessimistic... what's done is done. But I hope the Kerry campaign has learned this lesson. They belatedly counter-attacked the SBV thing, but at least they did. They seem to have, going much more on offense now. They need to keep it up and not let up, and they need to respond to every attack the DAY it is made, and ALWAYS link it with a counter-attack (put BUSH on the defensive).
We'll see what the current run of ads that Kerry has bought will yield. They seem hard-hitting and hopefully will snatch back the debate.
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