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Nate Silver thinks uncounted votes may put Begich over the top.

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EconomicLiberal Donating Member (554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-07-08 11:43 PM
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Nate Silver thinks uncounted votes may put Begich over the top.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

Although Ted Stevens currently holds a lead of approximately 3,200 votes in ballots counted to date in Alaska's senate contest, there is good reason to believe that the ballots yet to be counted -- the vast majority of which are early and absentee ballots -- will allow Mark Begich to mitigate his disadvantage with Stevens and quite possibly pull ahead of him.

The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska's 40 house districts as taken from Alaska's Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself.


There's more at the site..
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-07-08 11:49 PM
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1. This from the Alaska Democratic Party
According to the Division of Elections, there are now 81,000 ballots outstanding that need to be counted. This accounts for more that a quarter of the total votes.

Also today, the Division of Elections said they’d count about 2/3 of the ballots (absentee and early) next Wednesday. Questioned ballots aren’t likely to be counted until the end of next week or even the beginning of the following week. Based on data from the Division of Elections, Begich is leading Senator Ted Stevens in the early votes which have been counted – 59% to 37%. However, there will be enough question ballots left after Wednesday’s count for the race to still go either way.
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