Indiana had the largest ideological shift I've ever seen from one cycle to the next

[Awsi Dooger]

2004 Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IN/P/00/epolls.0.html

14% self-identified liberals, 42% self-identified conservatives

2008 Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=INP00p1

20% self-identified liberals, 36% self-identified conservatives

That is a surreal change. It's not a category the mainstream media focuses on, but it is fundamental to voting tendencies, much more reliable than Party ID. The 20/36 ratio is not far from true swing state status, which would be about 21/34. For reference purposes, the nation was 21/34 in 2004, and 22/34 this year.

My eyes almost jumped out when I saw the 20/36. I've studied that category since '96 and almost nothing surprises me. A major move from one cycle to the next might be 2-3 points in each category. A 6 point shift in each is unprecedented, as far as I know.

At least it explains why my Excel model was off in Indiana. I forecast 18/38 this year, which indicated Obama needed at least an 8+ margin nationally to carry Indiana. At 20/36 it's completely understandable that a 6 point margin was enough. It puts Indiana alongside North Carolina and Missouri, the other coin flip states this cycle. North Carolina moved from 17/40 in 2004 to 19/37 this year, and Missouri remained stagnant at 19/36 in both 2004 and 2008.

[Indiana_Dem]

1. Nice observation! (even though I'm getting a lot of flack from my freeper co-workers). nt

[BrklynLiberal]

2. I noticed that in these maps from The NYTimes..

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Thanks for that great link

I'd read about it on a few sites but hadn't seen what they were talking about.

Gad, the entirety of the state moved significantly, and even more pronounced in the interior than near the borders.