My prediction: A Kerry Landslide

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

There are little whisperings in the air that make me think Kerry is going to leave at best a few states to *.

• Remember '92? People weren't nearly as pissed off at George I as they are at George II, and George I got creamed.
  
  
• Never mind the polls, tons of people who normally wouldn't vote are so angry that they will vote this time, especially younger people who traditionally don't have a great showing - the polls don't account for that at all.
  
  
• F-9/11 coming out on video in October. A lot of people who didn't see it in the theater will see it on video. Supposedly the theater showing accounts for 4% of Kerry's voters (according to Moore).
  
  
• All of the other documentaries and well publicized books will get more people thinking and maybe wake a few up.
  
  
• The DNC seems to have finally woken up and is now actually starting to use the repug's tactics against them
  
  
• Iraq just keeps getting worse and worse
  
  
• Remember that Osama guy? He's still out there somewhere
  
  
• It's the economy, stupid
  
  

Frankly I fear the biggest threat to this election is vote tampering. They got away with it in 2000, and that will only embolden them this time. If * wins again, that will be how he does it.

[ugarte]

1. All that matters is turnout

If it's big, we win. End of story.

The polls say enthusiasm for Kerry among Dems is down, which means a lower turnout. I hope and pray they're wrong.

[friesianrider]

4. 110% in agreement....It's the TURNOUT, stupid! ;)

Turnout, turnout, turnout. Whenever turnout is high, it's always good for Dems and bad for Republicans.

And I agree totally with the original post. There are a TON of new voters (including me, my BF, my Dad, and my bf and my 80-year-old grandmas!) who registered because they want Junior out.

And Dems are understandably depressed - the GOP convention took over and I was depressed, too. Let's pick ourselves up, stop feeling sorry for ourselves, and register ONE new voter from now until election day. Keep donating $5 if you can to the DNC every month/week and talking to everyone who will listen. Write letters to the paper and make sure all your friends are registered, informed, and get their asses to the polls November 2nd. On November 3rd, it'll be too late. We're talking about the next 50 years or so here, and there is NO time to feel sorry for ourselves or be depressed. If Kerry's numbers are down, that's our signal to kick it up a notch! Truth and determination is on our side, and that's half the battle right there. We can do this if we get up off our butts and DO SOMETHING for Kerry everyday!

[sambird90]

8. dont believe it

don't let the repukes make you think that. i work in a large grocery store,i meet and talk to literally a thousand people ina week. i would say for the most part a good sampling of society. i'm no pollster but from what i gather gwb isn't well liked. KERRY will all right. we still have time.}(

[July]

25. Turnout is the single thing we should all focus on.

Let us not forget that Bush garnered fewer votes than Gore the last time, and that many groups that gave Bush support in 2000 will not go to him in percentages as high as the last time (Arab-Americans, for example, but there are many other groups that are fracturing).

There are more registered Democrats than Republicans.

There are so many different voting systems in place in the thousands of precincts across the country that they cannot game all of them. The hard campaigning in 2000 Bush states and such efforts as the get-out-the-Amish push suggest that Bush is desperate.

Of course, it's not in the bag. If they can steal EV-rich states, they can gain an advantage. That's why Arnold must be closely watched.

But if we get out the vote, I think we'll win.

[goclark]

2. Vote Tampering needs to be front and center

At every opportunity Democrat talking heads need to say..."They are trying to steal another election! Today I read that in California,they are messing with the voting process. Heard that Arnold is right in the middle of this, it is "compelling."

[ugarte]

3. That's why turnout is everything

They can't steal it everywhere, but if it's razor close...

[Vincardog]

13. TAMPERING

Turnout is important but When Diebold counts any way they want with no paper trail Turnout doesn't mean Shit. We can't let them put in crooked voting machines. IF your county has an electronic voting Machine vote absentee. Vote Provisional. Leave a paper trail. If you have to hack the damn box yourself and shut it down.

[goclark]

22. I live in CA what should I do..

Is there a website that tells the options of each state and what are the best possible scenerios?

[cthrumatrix]

24. the biggest risk this election easily is computer vote fraud

it's obvious what the hell they are doing

[BillZBubb]

5. My prediction: You are very wrong.

Kerry will not win by a landslide. We will be lucky to squeak out a win. Ohio is the key state this year and it is not looking good for Kerry there.

[movonne]

6. Doom and Gloom !!!

[BillZBubb]

11. No, reality.

I'm not one of you Pollyanna's where the sky is blue and everything is peachy. This is going to be one hell of a fight and we'll be very lucky to eke out a win.

[movonne]

14. The only way Kerry won't win is if they steal it again....So it will have

to be a landslide.

[Lex]

7. Forget looking "likely voters" and look at "registered voters"

because looking at polls that talk about "likely voters" are just crap.

"Likely voters" are leaving out lots and lots of Democratic votes.

[Norquist Nemesis]

9. I've been wondering what the difference is

with the "likely" vs. "registered". Registered is obvious. But how do they decide "likely"? :shrug: I haven't seen a definition of the likely's yet.

[rullery]

15. How to determine which Registered voters are Likely voters

Pollsters ask if you have voted before this election. If not, you are not considered to be a Likely voter. Then they look at their totals. Say for example, the poll of Registered voter shows 54% for Kerry and 44% for Bush. Subtract from that the number of newly registered voters, who by definition are not Likely voters. Then see what the percentages are for such Likely voters. Let's say it shows 49% for Kerry and 49% for Bush. Then you factor in how many voters (mostly Democrats) will not be allowed to vote because of "irregularities" found in their registrations. When you reach a result like 46% for Kerry and 52% for Bush, then pollsters have it about right. (NOTE: This appears to be how it is done here in Florida. I cannot speak for other states.)

[Norquist Nemesis]

18. Thanks! That explanation sounds

to me like what is being reported. Thanks to the biased reporting in the media, I'm getting a ton of things done around the house lately. ;)

[Lex]

20. Here are the votes that AREN'T COUNTED

in the polls because they aren't "likely voters":

** If you are a newly registered voter who just registered so you could vote against Smirk, or

** If you are a newly 18 year old voter who wants to vote against Smirk and the draft, or

** If you sat out the election in 2000 because you didn't care that much, but now Smirk scares the crap out of you so you are voting against him,

THEN you aren't being counted as a "likely voter."

That's A LOT of Dem votes being thrown out of these polls!

[Norquist Nemesis]

21. Excellent point!

Sadly, we Dems even get disenfranchized in the poll reporting. :mad:

[oasis]

12. Anecdotal reports blow the Ohio numbers out of the water. The corporate

controlled and manipulated polls are giving a false impression to the public. The idea is to dry up enthusiasm and donations for the
Kerry campaign.

Who would believe that the media is corporate controlled and biased to the right, but not the media's polls?

[BillZBubb]

16. Anecdotal reports are a pretty flimsy foundation.

No doubt the reports on polling data are doctored to convey a certain interpretation. Still, even the Kerry campaign admits their internal polling shows that Bush* has gained ground and Kerry has slipped some.

[seabeyond]

10. landslide.......you betcha n/t

[i like pizza]

17. .

punkvoter.com has registered a whole lot of yong voters. Trust me, there are tons of kerry votes that are not accounted for in the polls.

[faithnotgreed]

19. thanks i like pizza and welcome to du

[bigtree]

23. There is a divergence of issues and concerns that span the spectrum

So many voters who are hurting in so many areas. I can't believe that those satisfied with Bush outnumber them.

(Electoral) landslide is a real possibility.