Just released CBS NYT Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41

[grantcart]

Polls are basically showing Obama's lead staying at 6-7% or growing

Poll: Obama Maintains Comfortable Lead

CBS) With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.

A small percentage of these voters could still switch sides: The figures include both firm supporters of each candidate and those who lean towards one or the other but have not fully committed. These so-called leaners, however, make up less than 10 percent of each candidate's support, a sign that significant movement in the campaign's final days is not likely. Just five percent of the likely voters surveyed remain completely undecided.

Seventeen percent of registered voters say they have already voted, either by absentee ballot or at early voting sites, and this group favors Obama by a large margin. The 13 percent of registered voters casting ballots for the first time favor Obama over McCain by two-to-one.

Intense feelings surround the prospect of either candidate being elected. Fifty-seven percent of likely McCain voters say they are scared about Obama becoming president, while 47 percent of Obama voters are scared of a McCain presidency.

Crosstabs here http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08e-all.pdf

Barack Obama has reached key thresholds with voters when it comes to overcoming some of his perceived weaknesses: more than half say he is prepared for the job, and nearly half are confident in his ability to handle an international crisis. Most voters expect the Democratic nominee to reach across the aisle, and say he understands and cares about them. And Obama benefits from a surge in early voting and first time voters.

All of the crosstabs are pulling well for Obama whether it is likeability, ability to handle the economy or selection of a Vice President, and point to undecideds breaking favorbly for Obama.

This breakdown was the most significant:

VOTE FOR PRESIDENT: DEMOGRAPHICS (Among likely voters including leaners)
. . . . . . . . . .Obama . . . . . . McCain

All . . . . . . . . . 52% . . . . . . . . 41

Men . . . . . . . . . 50% . . . . . . . . 43

Women . . . . . . . . 54% . . . . . . . . 40

Republicans . . . . . 10% . . . . . . . . 85

Democrats . . . . . . 86% . . . . . . . . 9

Independents . . . . 54% . . . . . . . . 37

Liberal . . . . . . . 92% . . . . . . . . 6

Moderate . . . . . . 56% . . . . . . . . 38

Conservative . . . . 20% . . . . . . . . 71



Obama has an 18% advantage on moderates and is pulling 20% of the conservative demographic

[rzemanfl]

1. I hope the McCain supporter stay scared for 8 long years, the

fuckers. I think that the 47% of Obama supporters that are scared of a McCain presidency reflects the fact that most of us think Gramps and Gidget won't win, otherwise it would be 100%.

[Motown_Johnny]

2. Women..... 54-40. assuming that holds, game over

[sarahdemva]

6. GREAT NEWS!!

[cliffordu]

3. FUCK PAT BUCHANAN'S FAKE HORSERACE......K&R!!!

Nice work GC!!!

[grantcart]

4. well come on he doesn't even believe that dribel

as Tweety said the other day - Its Buchanan's role to represent a completely discredited point of view.

a girl has to do what a girl has to do.

[phrigndumass]

10. lol

:rofl:

[cliffordu]

12. ROFL!!!!!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

5. we have to work harder to make it 65% - yes we can!

[desktop]

7. I would prefer the poll stay closer, Obama people need to stay scared

We need every possible person voting. The last thing we need is some complacent voters deciding Obama has it won and no need for them to bother voting. Also it does no good to have a 12 point lead if all those people are in blue states.

[grantcart]

14. go to GDP you will find plenty of fear to tide you over to election day

[senseandsensibility]

8. Will this or anything stop the narrowing meme?

:shrug:

[crossroads]

9. Good news... thanks! k&r

[Youphemism]

11. I saw this poll... First time I've ever seen a poll not quote the delta from the last poll...

Did I just miss it? I'm pretty darned sure these numbers are better for Obama than the last CBS/NYT poll, but there are so many of 'em out there I can't remember.

The polls vary erraticly... I like to compare apples to apples, looking at the last number from that poll to establish the trend.

Why doesn't this poll mention the change from the last poll? Am I overlooking it in their five pages of description, or did they just screw up?

[grantcart]

13. one week ago it was 52-39

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/opinion/polls/main4541781.shtml

[FVZA_Colonel]

17. Even still, he'd have to lose over 2 points per day for McCain to be tied.

At this point I just don't think he can close the gap in terms of the numbers, or popular support.

[grantcart]

20. he isn't losing == for a national campaign in the closing days the

numbers are surprisingly solid.

[FVZA_Colonel]

18. Self-Delete.

Double Post.

[JimGinPA]

15. Thanks

K&R

[grantcart]

23. welcome

[Nothing Without Hope]

16. Harder to steal this one, with this much of a lead. We hope. n/t

[blitzburgh55]

19. Here's more from the poll, re: negative ads

Nine in 10 voters have seen some of the television commercials for both candidates this year, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. But, the voters surveyed have received different messages from the two campaigns.

Twenty percent of voters who watched Mr. McCain’s broadcast advertising said most of the commercials explained what the Republican candidate stood for, but 64 percent said most of the advertising dollars were used to attack Mr. Obama.

In contrast, half the voters who viewed Mr. Obama’s television commercials said most of the ads made it clear what Mr. Obama stood for, and only 30 percent said most Obama ads attacked Mr. McCain.

While most Democrats described the tone of Mr. Obama’s advertising as positive and Mr. McCain’s as negative, Republicans were more likely to say both campaigns were negative. The plurality of the Republican voters surveyed, 45 percent, said the ads on behalf of Mr. McCain attacked Mr.
Obama. At the same time, 48 percent of Republican voters said Mr. Obama’s ads attacked Mr. McCain.

And almost half of independent voters, 48 percent, described the tone of the commercials broadcast for Mr. Obama as positive, while 64 percent said Mr. McCain’s were negative.

The Obama campaign has spent over $200 million and the campaign of John McCain has spent about $120 million for television advertising, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising expenditures. Additionally, about $100 million has been spent by the national parties, unions, and other organizations on
behalf of the candidates.

The Times/CBS News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 25-29 with 1,308 registered voters nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. More results from this survey will be released later this evening.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/nytimescbs-poll-different-messages-from-campaign-ads/

[DCBob]

21. Great numbers! 52% is a winner no matter what the undecideds do.

McCain is toast! Cheers!

[Blondiegrrl]

22. Let the fuckers be scared. At least with Obama's health plan they can

afford insurance for when they're hospitalized with their hate-induced coronaries.

[grantcart]

24. lol

[Hope And Change]

25. K & R!

[Laelth]

26. k&r for very good news. n/t

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[Coexist]

27. but Zogby...

[crossroads]

28. K&R for the nervous nellies here!

[cliffordu]

29. Kicked again

fuck Zogby

[bdamomma]

30. kick