I have a question about polling if someone knows about them.

[Ameridem]

On electroal vote.com Obama is considerably ahead in states with higher population. It would seem to me with these leads that Obama would have at least a 10 point and maybe even more in the national samples. How could the 3-5 point numbers be accurate if he leads by so much in the large states?

[Spike89]

1. Simple...red states are very, very red

Even a small state like Idaho can tweak the national numbers. Heres the math simplified: Big state with 10 million votes is 55% Obama and 45% McCain, or 5.5 million/4.5 million. Little State with only 1 million votes is 90% McCain, 10% Obama 900,000/100,000. Average the two and you get 5.6 million for Obama, 5.4 for McCain. It would appear to be a very close race! Doing the EV is another story, say the big state has 12 Ev and the little 1 has 3, Obama is winning in a landslide...400% more!

What's been happening mostly is that the big population states have mostly been locked for Obama for a while, there is a bit of tightening in them, but they are still very safe. McCain's "solid" states have become a bit more solid (perhaps defiant). Obama is making his big push in a couple swing states and a couple soft repub areas as well.

It's important to remember that it was never disputed that Gore won the popular national vote, even forgetting the weirdness in Florida. You can actually lose the national vote fairly significantly and still win the election without the Supreme Court. That won't happen this time, but it's good to remember that national polls are pretty useless when we vote by state.