According to my estimation, Obama is currently leading by 9.38% and 272,000 votes when NPA's are

[ddeclue]

accounted for:


Based on info provided in:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7671866&mesg_id=7671866

1) Assumption: NPA's split 55-45 for Obama and assuming that Party crossover voting is essentially a wash (it may actually favor Obama..)

Based on the info provided:

2.9 Million voters = 24.2% of total registered eligible voters have already voted.

Based on the figures provided that is

1.33 Million Dems
1.11 Million Republicans
458,200 Independents

Of the NPA's I estimate 252010 have voted for Obama, 206190 have voted for McCain.

This yields an estimated vote for Obama at 1.59 Million vs. 1.31 Million for McCain or a 272,000 vote lead for Obama in Florida.

By percentage that is 54.7% for Obama to 45.3% for McCain or a 9.38% lead.

I predict a 4 to 5% win for Obama by the end of vote counting Tuesday in Florida.

Doug D.
Orlando/Ft. Lauderdale FL

[Fluffdaddy]

1. And your record for making predictions is?

[ddeclue]

2. Pretty decent...

On occasion I do GOTV consulting for local and state campaigns here in FL.

In any event I provided the basis for my analysis and showed my work so if you have a problem with my prediction tell me where you think the flaw is in my analysis and/or assumptions.

Doug D.

[Fluffdaddy]

3. I'm happy to read your opinion now that I know you are in the profession

[regnaD kciN]

4. What's an NPA?

:shrug:

[ddeclue]

5. NPA=NO PARTY AFFILIATION...acronym for independent..

[quantass]

6. I like your breakdown..seems well thoughtout

great job :hi:

[abumbyanyothername]

7. Why are you splitting NPA's like that? nt.