Bin Laden's '04 message: did it really help Bush?

[Lorentz]

The consensus (at least on DU) is that Bin Laden's 11th hour message prior to the '04 election caused Bush to win. However, it's clear from the electoral college count that Kerry was decidedly losing beforeand. Can anyone say with confidence (e.g. poll evidence) that the Bin Laden video tipped the election, or helped Bush at all? Or is this just projection of frustration that Kerry was a losing candidate going into November?

Why does anyone think that a BL video this time around (which ABC News reports is on the way) will make a shred of difference for McCain?

[FreeState]

1. IMO it did not help him - nor will it effect this election n/t

[kstewart33]

2. The CIA believed that it helped Bush.

And so did members of his campaign team.

IMHO, it was a crucial factor in Bush's win. I'm betting that Obama's team is ready if it happens.

[Bicoastal]

3. Actually, ABC did NOT report a video was on the way...

...they said they're desperately looking for a statement, but "experts" at the Pentagon believe think ONBL will, cuz "it's not like him not to."

[high density]

4. This poll from 2004 shows movement of Bush +2, Kerry -2 after bin Laden tape

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1475515/Bush-takes-a-six-point-lead-after-new-bin-Laden-tape.html

Kerry was already behind, and this didn't help.

[LisaLynne]

5. That's a good question.

I don't know that it really had any effect. Which makes me sort of suspicious of the tape. I mean, say I'm bin Laden ... and say I do want candidate A to win the US election for whatever reason. Do I really think that telling the American people that will make them elect my choice? You know? So, does he use reverse psychology and say he wants the other guy? Or what? I just don't get the whole thing.

However, I really think that the people dumb enough to be influenced by a tape like this already have their minds made up -- and they're voting McLame.

[Sebastian Doyle]

6. It provided a good cover story so they could hide the reality

of Ohio being blatantly STOLEN.

[KayLaw]

10. There you go.

That's what I think. A last minute trick will allow them to say, Well, I guess a lot of people changed their minds after seeing that tape.

[CJCRANE]

14. Yes, that was its main purpose nt

[blm]

19. DING - DING - DING!

.

[Lerkfish]

7. I don't believe it hurt Kerry as much as the swiftboaters did.

but what do I know?

[NewJeffCT]

9. the Swifties were in August, though

Kerry fell way behind in August, but caught up with the debates and was near even going into the OBL tape weekend. The electoral college projection had him winning before the tape, too. But, yes, they had more impact overall - it was just earlier.

[Lorentz]

12. The EC projection DIDN'T have him winning!

That's the point. Kerry was losing going into the final weekend:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html

Many people had blinders on then, because they didn't want to consider another Bush win. But the data doesn't lie.

[spotbird]

15. The tide was turning

it broke kerry's big mo.

[NewJeffCT]

22. I saw a 11/1/04 projection yesterday

On Kos that had Kerry winning the electoral vote count. Couldn't find the link with a quick look, though.

[blm]

18. Video and swifts DIDN'T hurt Kerry - rampant election fraud did allowed by an inattentive DNC did.

.

[NewJeffCT]

8. the CIA later concluded that the tape was clearly designed to HELP Bush

and, I believe the projections/polls on Nov 1, 2004 had Kerry winning the electoral college.

[thenam]

11. I never understood why it would have helped Bush

Why would it have helped Bush if Americans were reminded of the fact that Bin Laden had been ignored by Bush, and was roaming around free? I never got that. But in any case, I don't think that it made a difference in the final vote tally.

[CJCRANE]

13. It was the timing and the SPIN that helped Bush.

The tape was held back for a few days and the translation released at the time was a censored version.

If the full version had been publicized earlier it would have been very damaging for Bush (there's a part in the tape where Bin Laden actually thanks Bush fro helping al-qaeda achieve so much).

[Kingofalldems]

16. It came out on the Friday before the election

Tomorrow is the day.

[blm]

17. The video only gave COVER for the STEAL - you think they had to purge, suppress, and rig machines

because Kerry was losing already? You think they needed Carville to sabotage Ohio Dem voters on election night because Kerry was losing?

[derby378]

20. Here's what helped Bush "win" in 04...

1. Karl Rove's 11th-hour tour across America warning about the "evils" of Kerry legalizing gay marriage.
2. Massive voter fraud in Ohio.
3. Touchscreen DRE voting machines in general.

That's the Big Three.

[Lorentz]

21. Kerry was losing the EC. I think that's the Occam's Razor here.

[FVZA_Colonel]

23. Bin Laden was a plus for Bush, but it didn't give him the White House.

He would have won anyway, given the fraud in Ohio.

[phleshdef]

24. Election fraud stuff aside, its hard to unseat an incumbent wartime president if the war is popular

The American public had not really started to turn on the war yet. That and gay marriage was turned into a life or death issue in Ohio that year. If it wasn't for the not-yet unpopular Iraq war, leftover 911 sentiments and a huge effort to energize the worst of people's bigotry in my state of Ohio, I don't think Bush could have came close to beating Kerry.