Virginia=Win; North Carolina=Landslide (A Handy Guide To Watching Election Night)

[ihavenobias]

by Cenk Uygur

Here is a handy dandy guide to watching election night. The East Coast states will report first. If John McCain is going to win, then he will win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. And then it will take the rest of the night to figure out if he still has enough electoral votes. Obama's victory could be a lot easier to figure out.

If Obama wins Virginia - it's over. That simple. He is comfortably ahead in all of the blue states that John Kerry won in 2004. He is very likely to win all of those. He is also comfortably ahead in . So, that means all he has to do to get an electoral majority is win Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado. Any of them will do. If McCain wins three out of the four, he still loses.

So, unless something gargantuanly unexpected happens, if they call Virginia for Obama, you will know at that moment that he is the next President of the United States.

Notice North Carolina is not on the list of states that Obama needs. That's because if he wins North Carolina, then he probably won all of those other states anyway and he has blown John McCain out of the water. So, if they call North Carolina for Obama, that's the moment you know that we have a landslide on our hands.

Now, none of this is bound to happen. The polls are just polls, they are not actual votes. That's why they play the games on Sunday (and in this case, do the voting on Tuesday). But this is just a quick guide to watching the game. Virginia equals Obama win. North Carolina equals Obama landslide.
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A quick point from Cenk from the comments section: "There is a reason to push this message in the media, too. Because we want to present an Obama win-- if it happens -- as a mandate as much as possible.

The talk of landslide is of course premature in many ways because we don't want people to get complacent. But on the other hand, it's important in setting the media mindset that he has a mandate to push a real progressive agenda if he wins."
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PS---Watch and then read his inspiring new article about how . And instead of giving more money to the mainstream media on November 4th, watch LIVE election coverage at www.theyoungturks.com with updates on the state by state vote count, special guests and a chat room.

[mvd]

1. Agreed

When Virginia closes:

- if we win outright, then it looks like a great night
- if too close to call, wait for next poll closings
- if McCain wins outright, I'll get scared about theft

When PA closes:

- if we also win PA outright, then it looks to be a win
- if PA too close to call also, then it could be a long night
- if McCain wins outright while winning VA, then yikes!

[ihavenobias]

6. Yep n/t

[Schulzz]

12. I agree with you.

VA is the state to watch.

And the best thing is, in the (very unlikely) scenario, in which Obama would win all Kerry states, but lose VA and all eastern BG states, he can still close the deal in Colorado.

[OhioChick]

2. Thanks...

I'll be listening to TYT on election night. :thumbsup:

K&R

[ihavenobias]

11. And even if people insist on the MSM they can still watch that while chatting in the TYT chat room

:)

[Seldona]

38. I'll be between here and there as well.

Look forward to hanging with you if you are going to be there as well. Really hope the night isn't long. Love to see a landslide victory with a clear mandate for now Senator Obama to make some true progressive changes.

Not getting complacent, I just have a hope that Americans have finally seen the light and are truly done with this right wing inspired insanity we have had these last 8 years.

[ihavenobias]

44. I'm actually going to be calling into the show a few times to give updates of my observations from

Chicago!

I'm pretty excited.

[pleah]

3. Here's hoping for a landslide,

anyway! :toast:

K&R

[ihavenobias]

14. Cheers to that!

:)

[iiibbb]

4. VA = Win, NC or FL = ugly, NC and FL = landslide

[wroberts189]

5. bushie claimed a mandate with 50%-> 51% after he stole it

I hope Obama uses every new precedent set ..I hope he takes Cheney's view of executive power.

And if rove and others can ignore subpoenas and bushie can invent unconstitutional "signing statements"

The pubs can just shut the f up for the next eight years. No more Ken Stars. Sorry you bunch of pathetic a-holes.. you made the bed and now we are going to sleep in it, after we fix the mess you made.

Happy now? Karma is a btch

[immoderate]

8. Think a minute.

Cheney's view on imperial presidential power is out of whack with the Constitution. I don't think Barack wants that. Warrantless wire taps and detention. With a Democratic congress he won't need it.

I would think he would like to restore balance. He should definitely prosecute the fascists of the Bush administration.

--IMM

[ihavenobias]

19. Agreed n/t

[immoderate]

23. I almost said, "He could do that -- but it would be wrong."

Shit, Reagan made Nixon look good. Then Bush came along, with his pet snake, Cheney. We don't want to go anywhere they've been.

--IMM

[JJ]

41. Not one,...

but two constitutional law scholars.

Obama - Biden, not only have they read the constitution(unlike most of the GOP), they've taught it.

[central scrutinizer]

7. also important to push the "bandwagon" effect

[AZBlue]

9. AZ = total embarassment

:evilgrin:

[ihavenobias]

22. Let's not get greedy here

;)

[struggle4progress]

27. Let's get greedy. 2010 is a census year. And a productive Congress 2009-2010

may be important for the 2010 elections: down-ticket effects then will determine redistricting for 2012. So we want the biggest sweep we can get

[ihavenobias]

30. You missed my wink face, eh?

:)

[struggle4progress]

43. My greed blinded me to all else

[ihavenobias]

45. I understand

:)

[AZBlue]

32. Survey says...AZ is a dead heat and very possibly blue in 2008.

:D

[ihavenobias]

33. Excellent Family Fued reference n/t

[BlueDonkey08]

60. They say it'll be a battleground in '12

:)

[Two Sheds]

39. I won't get greedy until I can smell 270. The minute I smell 270, I will be...

the greediest bastard alive.

[Azlady]

10. Do you feel it??? Plant your feet firmly on the ground.. Now do

you feel it???? It is the beginning rumble of the Obama 2008 LANDSLIDE! But EVERYONE has to vote!!!!

[Bucky]

17. No, I don't feel it. Those bastards have us right where they want us! OMG! Yikes!!

;)

[ihavenobias]

35. Good point

;)

[ihavenobias]

31. I don't live in a state with earthquakes so I trust you

:)

[matthewf]

13. k&r

[Kajsa]

15. Thanks,Ihavenobias!

This is a good guide for Tuesday night.
Virginia goes to Obama- the large lady has sung-
got it!

It's going to be exciting, and I'm really looking
forward to it!

Thanks!

:)

[ihavenobias]

50. I'm looking forward to it too! n/t

[struggle4progress]

16. Um ... yes & no. E coast happy talk could suppress W coast voting

[Bucky]

18. By the time this election gets to the west coast, it'll be over.

But don't worry--I'm not getting over confident.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

20. I have a question.

What is the TYT chat room someone mentioned and is there a link to it??? Thank you.

I also think Virginia will tell us of a landslide but also I'm looking at Indiana. We got PA. I can feel it!

[ihavenobias]

49. The chat room is up shortly before the live short starts and sometimes stays up a little after

Just go to www.theyoungturks.com in the afternoon/evening Monday-Friday. And it'll be up for several hours (I'd day around 3pm-2am EST, give or take an hour or two).

And yes, it's free.

[struggle4progress]

28. But I want Colorado!

[ihavenobias]

51. That would be awesome n/t

[immoderate]

24. Lots of reason to come out for down ticket candidates.

Plus, the thought of a landslide is too delicious. IOW, I hope that doesn't happen.

--IMM

[ihavenobias]

57. Yes n/t

[cemaphonic]

26. Maybe, but Obama has pretty huge leads in all West Coast States

and it would be just as likely to suppress Republican voters.

Plus, I don't know about Oregon, but WA and CA both have pretty heavily anticipated state contests - people are still going to want to vote for those.

Also, OR and to a lesser extent WA are heavily mail-in voting states. Most of us will have already voted by the time East Coast polls close.

[struggle4progress]

29. Think CO and NV. And if you're an optimist, think MT and ND

[Spike89]

47. Oregon has no polling sites

Although you can turn in your ballot until 8 pm on election night, almost all the votes will be cast in Oregon by election day...a blow out should very little suppression effect here.

[cemaphonic]

56. Yeah, and WA only has polling sites in King and Pierce counties.

Granted, that is a fair chunk of the state population, but plenty of people in Seattle and Tacoma vote mail-in anyway just for the convenience.

[ihavenobias]

59. We'll see just how motivated the R base is by Palin...

Should be interesting.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Rocknrule]

21. So with that in mind, how does Virginia look thus far?

Lots of early voting? Paper ballots or machines? Any vote flipping reported? Whats the R vs. D early turnout?

[mwooldri]

25. Just expect VA, NC and FL to be "too close to call" for most of the night. nt

[HalbyVA]

46. Agreed

If the 2006 Jim Webb / George "Macca" Allen race is any indication, VA could go late into the night. I recall going to bed well after 11 PM with Allen in the lead and obsessing on the SBE website which precincts in Fairfax and Arlington Counties were left to report. I then remember waking up before 5 AM the next morning after a horrible night's sleep and being blown away that Webb had won by about 10,000 out of 2.3 million votes cast.

In 2004, 3.2 million Virginians voted for President. There are about 400k more registered voters now versus 2004 and I would expect turnout (as a % of registered voters) to be at least as high as 2004 and hopefully a lot higher. Long story short, if exit polling shows VA to be close, it could be late night before the Networks are comfortable calling it. I am cautiously optimistic that the current VA polls are correct and the Networks will call VA for Obama shortly after polls close at 7 PM.

[ihavenobias]

61. Thanks for the info n/t

[donna123]

34. my question - if there is historic turnout

as has been predicted by several people, at least I've heard this on NPR, what will happen? Will states have to extend voting late into the night, possibly past midnight,, and then results won't be known until perhaps thurs and not wed? Could this happen? If people are still in line past midnight, can voting places close?

[ihavenobias]

63. Polls close at 7pm here and anyone in line by 7pm HAS to be allowed to vote, no matter the line n/t

[ejbr]

36. K & R n/t

[slampoet]

37. Indiana ? Generational voting shift.

[backwoodsbob]

40. woohoo

our turn to count for once here in Virginia :headbang:

[ihavenobias]

64. Let's hope so

:)

[regnaD kciN]

42. VA + PA = Win

Although picking up Virginia (which reports earlier) will be a very positive sign, Obama will still need Pennsylvania to be assured of a win. If, somehow, McCain's concentration in the Keystone State helps him come from behind and score a win there, Obama (even with Virginia in his column) will need to win either Ohio, Florida, or a combination of Colorado and North Carolina to win.

[noonwitch]

48. Ohio+PA+VA+NC=Obama win. FL+PA=Obama win

Although, I think Ohio is more likely to go Obama this year than Florida.

[CherylK]

52. Bump!

:kick:

[yodermon]

53. PA. Paperless DRE's. eom.

[longship]

54. Recommended and Kicked

:kick:ed

[Laelth]

55. Cenk rocks. I link to one of his most important pieces.

This is what we need the media to remember: The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[pokercat999]

58. I've already voted in VA and Tuesday I'm flying to Las Vegas

where I WISH I could vote again. Tuesday night I'm hoping for a quick victory so I can turn off the TV and play poker. I'm looking for an Obama win in VA, PA, NC, and an upset in GA....then I'll be very happy. I'm going to leave my laptop at home so I won't be able to log on to DU until the following Tuesday. By that time there should be all kinds of good news.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

62. Kick.

[Waiting For Everyman]

65. Thanks, IHNB!

:dem: