Electoral college maps are clues to how different the dynamics are in each election.

[ProSense]

2008:



Obama is in great shape. I think he'll get a significant share of the popular vote, but it's unlikely his electoral map will look like Reagan's or Clinton's.

Reagan's percentage of the popular vote (50.7%) was exactly the same as Bush Jr.'s (50.7%) and Clinton's (43.0%) was only a couple of points more than Carter's (41.0%).

[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[ProSense]

2. FiveThirtyEight's Road to 270

series

[roguevalley]

19. I want him to run the table. wouldn't that be cool?

[iiibbb]

3. The history is interesting... but the context is always different.

You have to look at what issues were driving the election each of those years.

Reagan-Carter
- Iran Crisis
- Economic Crisis ("stagflation")

Clinton-Bush
- Iraq war
- Bush's apparent disinterest in winning
- Perot bleeding off votes in the S
- Mild economic woes

Bush-Kerry
- Angst about terror.
- Economy seemingly off the table.
- Kerry's anticharisma.

Obama-McCain
- Economic Crisis
- Obama connecting with middle class.


I smell blowout... the only thing that's hurting Obama is people fearing him for whatever reasons unfounded or not (Race, Guns, Taxes, etc.)...

[ProSense]

4. It's funny that you include this

"Kerry's anticharisma" as a factor when youth turn out was up for Kerry, but you don't list any of the problems with the election.

Kerry had his appeal:

But the most raucous applause came when Mr. Kerry took the stage, visibly amazed at the size of the crowd on such a wilting afternoon.

more

(another)



So I take that comment as an opinion rather than a fact.





edited extra word, clarity

[iiibbb]

8. But them there's Kerry explaing his "depends" joke ad-nausium

He may have charisma, but sometimes he just doesn't connect.

[ProSense]

11. That's about as relevant as

nothing.

Seriously.

[iiibbb]

14. It's an example... sometimes he can speak... sometimes he's got no personality.

I'm not the only person who's noticed this... just Google John Kerry anti charisma... I literally just did this.

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/articles/how_to_make_a_senator_sweat/

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20040719/nicholsweb

[ProSense]

16. You cannot be serious?

You post an article about a challenger Kerry beat with 70% of the vote?

What the hell does that have to do with anything?

[politicasista]

9. Nice pic

But he was so boring on unenthusiastic. Obama is fun and he is a saint. :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[ProSense]

12. It certainly is. n/t

[politicasista]

15. Yep.

For somebody that didn't excite people that's was awesome! Obama's crowds are even more awesome too! :)

[ProSense]

20. Obama's campaign has been awesome.

I look forward to seeing how the map is redrawn.

[Virginia Dare]

5. Obama gets Virginia and it's over, he doesn't even need Ohio or Florida..

And I think there is no way he loses Virginia :wow:

[ProSense]

7. Yup.

He's in a great position.

[ProSense]

6. The anomaly:

Gore's percentage (48.4%) of the popular vote was .5% higher than Bush's (47.9%)

[TrogL]

10. It's identical to the Jesusland map

[ProSense]

13. NH will stay blue

NH McCain Leadership Committee member endorses Obama

This is leadership we can believe in, my friends. From an Obama campaign press release:

MANCHESTER – Fred Bramante, a member of McCain's New Hampshire Leadership Committee and a 2008 Alternate Delegate to the Republican National Convention today announced his support for Senator Obama's Campaign for Change.

Bramante, a Co-Chair of Gov. Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign and former Republican gubernatorial candidate, is a past Chairman and current member of the New Hampshire State Board of Education. His endorsement marks the first time nationally that a delegate or alternate delegate to the 2008 Republican National Convention has publicly announced their decision to support Sen. Obama.

[ProSense]

17. In five days

a new map will be drawn.

Yay!

[Hamlette]

18. he can come within 16 EVs of Clinton

He will not get several states that Clinton got: GA, WV KY LA AR TN for a total of 55 EVs we won't win

Obama will win a few states that Clinton lost: NC, VA, IN (maybe) for a total gain of 39 EVs. Our total 354. Close to Clinton's 370.

[ProSense]

21. Possibly.

I think Obama will close the popular vote gap in a lot of states, and that's significant.