What Will the "UNDECIDED"s Do?

[livedemocarticordie]

SO FOLKS, here is the deal, my husband and I have been having this discussion for three dinner cycles now. What will the so cslled "undecided"s do?

Go for McCain; Go for Barack or Stay home.

I think 55% McCain 30% Barack and 15% stay at home.

Paint me cynical, but to me, the most dangerous person in the world is the so called undecided. I believe there are very very few actual undecideds. They usually know who they are voting for, they just don't want "to say."

What do you think? My husband thinks many will stay home.

[Crazy Dave]

1. Rachel Maddow said it best last week

"Still undecided after looking at the menu for two years?!?"

[napi21]

2. I think anybody who is STILL undecided will vote Obama because

people who have great difficulty making their own decisions always go with the obvious winner. It's just their nature not to make waves or go against the flow.

[vanderBeth]

3. The Bandwagon Effect

It is real and it definitely favors Obama.

[rucky]

6. And unlike the Bradley Effect,

it's proven.

[Schulzz]

4. I really hope many of them will stay home...

If you can't decide between these 2 candidates, nobody needs you to decide an election. Could McCain and Obama possibly be more different?

[demo dutch]

5. Some won't vote!

[TheCoxwain]

7. In fact MOST dont vote .. I heard this on NPR this morning and the ones that do vote tend

to vote against the incumbent.

[uppityperson]

8. It depends on why they are "undecided".

That is a bigger question, why are they "undecided"? I know some who have been looking for the final impetus to get past the religiousist, racist and sexist issues (vote for Obama even though he is black, don't vote for Palin even though she is female, X-tian vs Muslim bs).

I know some who are scared to vote Dem since they have always voted Repub, the part of "business", since they have a small business which has suffered the last 8 yrs.

And yes, I've been working with them on these.

[Abacus]

9. I think Obama will get 40% - 45% of voting undecideds;

Your 15% staying home sounds reasonable, so that would be
something like 34% - 38% Obama and  47% - 52% for McCain, 15%
at home.

Here are my state by state Obama undecided projections based
on leaners and independents, compared with Nate's which are
based more on demographics.  We both average to ~50% across
the states, but that does not weight for population
differences.

State	Me	Nate Silver	Difference
AL 	31.40%	60.90%	-29.50%
AK 	43.82%	53.40%	-9.58%
AZ 	42.81%	46.00%	-3.19%
AR 	38.64%	56.80%	-18.16%
CA 	64.17%	42.90%	21.27%
CO 	63.20%	51.80%	11.40%
CT 	51.15%	44.60%	6.55%
DE 	56.00%	53.70%	2.30%
DC 	65.93%	64.40%	1.53%
FL 	59.32%	52.40%	6.92%
GA 	42.50%	63.00%	-20.50%
HI 	66.42%	50.50%	15.92%
ID 	39.00%	45.40%	-6.40%
IL 	51.46%	48.30%	3.16%
IN 	48.57%	57.80%	-9.23%
IA 	58.41%	56.90%	1.51%
KS 	43.55%	51.40%	-7.85%
KY 	34.42%	43.40%	-8.98%
LA 	31.67%	50.70%	-19.03%
ME 	56.95%	42.60%	14.35%
MD 	31.18%	61.50%	-30.32%
MA 	53.73%	41.00%	12.73%
MI 	47.94%	51.50%	-3.56%
MN 	53.31%	50.20%	3.11%
MS 	41.79%	64.40%	-22.61%
MO 	49.71%	51.60%	-1.89%
MT 	46.40%	48.00%	-1.60%
NE 	43.73%	49.80%	-6.07%
NV 	50.82%	46.70%	4.12%
NH 	58.37%	42.20%	16.17%
NJ 	54.11%	45.00%	9.11%
NM 	57.51%	40.00%	17.51%
NY 	55.42%	44.60%	10.82%
NC 	48.73%	58.00%	-9.27%
ND 	45.12%	45.50%	-0.38%
OH 	51.36%	47.20%	4.16%
OK 	43.79%	56.50%	-12.71%
OR 	65.30%	51.00%	14.30%
PA 	65.38%	44.80%	20.58%
RI 	64.71%	35.00%	29.71%
SC 	39.14%	61.10%	-21.96%
SD 	48.01%	46.40%	1.61%
TN 	38.54%	52.30%	-13.76%
TX 	37.67%	48.30%	-10.63%
UT 	50.86%	50.60%	0.26%
VT 	71.61%	43.70%	27.91%
VA 	54.21%	57.80%	-3.59%
WA 	53.82%	52.70%	1.12%
WV 	52.09%	38.60%	13.49%
WI 	52.55%	56.50%	-3.95%
WY 	42.17%	46.60%	-4.43%

[marlakay]

10. Sherri on the view said this morning she was undecided

but the way she talked about Obama's half hour show and the way she fact checked something about McCain and found it went to Obama's side made me think she is only pretending to be undecided so Elizabeth will be nice to her.

She says it has to do with the war but I wonder more for her if it is religion because she talks about God alot.

So who knows?

[Arkansas Granny]

11. I heard this discussion the other day on tv. The person being interviewed stated

that those who are undecided now are people who aren't very political, but they do vote. They tend to vote for the person who is leading in the polls. If that's so, it will be more votes for Obama.

[TheKentuckian]

12. I honestly think they will break McGollum

like 50/35 with the remainder voting third party or staying home.

I could be wrong, Obama may dominate these people like Reagan did in 80, with folks wanting reassurance before making a change in direction but the debate was super late. At this point I can't guess what they are needing to hear. I figure were looking at a O-51/M-46/I-3 split.