How soon til we know what effect the Obamamercial had on the polls?

[Bicoastal]

Friday? Saturday? Sunday?

[HereSince1628]

1. I'd think about the time Chuck Todd appears next on MSNBC...

I expect him to be moving around states that have top 56 TV markets.

[tedoll78]

2. Depends.

The full effect won't be seen probably until the weekend.

But tomorrow's tracking polls will begin to include samples taken today, so we could see them start to edge upward tomorrow morning. It would make for some very nice week-ending news..

[yellowcanine]

7. No thanks. Don't need them yet, thank God.

:rofl:

[niceypoo]

3. Usually by this point in the election people have made up their minds

Generally the polls would have tightened considerably, this time they are widening.

The deeper McCain goes in the hole, the faster he digs and the loonier his surrogates sound.

Someone I work with said he reminds them of a bitter, angry, Popeye the sailor man. He is toast.

[ticapnews]

4. Saturday or Sunday

3-day tracking polls will have to go through Thurs/Fri/Sat to accurately reflect the influence of the ad, but some pollsters might release their single-day tracking data early and give an indication.

[eshfemme]

5. I usually follow the polls through 538

I really like Nate Silver's analysis and he seems to have been pretty good about pinpointing when the bumps are being reflected in the polls. His color coded maps as well as the line graph of the polls with a trend line also makes it easy to see when bumps materialize. So far though, it might take a bit since it seems the pollsters aren't specifically polling for the reaction to the ad like they did with the debates.

[ksoze]

6. I think it only solidified existing dem support, which is helpful

As good as it was, it will not sway repub's who are drowning in a sea of misinformation emails, blogs and boards which paint Obama as an outsider who will ruin America. The undecideds are a mystery to me and I just don't know if the spot will change someone who has not figured this out by now. Do undecideds even have the decision making skills to actually find the time slot and change the channel to the ad last night anyway?

[TheZug]

8. Wouldn't it be tomorrow's tracking polls? (I think it will be worth a point.)