The Sleeping Giant? SC poll produces evidence of "landline-only" sampling bias.

[jefferson_dem]

McCain up 11 in South Carolina
Posted: Thursday, October 30, 2008 10:43 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: States, 2008, McCain, Polls

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new NBC News/Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll shows McCain with an 11-point lead over Obama among likely South Carolina voters, 53%-42%.

Yet that margin is smaller is among registered voters, 50%-44%.

Also don't miss this nugget from Princeton Survey pollster Evans Witt: cellphone respondents tend to back Obama by a greater percentage. "Unlike many state polls during the 2008 campaign, this survey included interviews on both landline phones and on cellphones in South Carolina. Among the landline interviews, McCain holds a 50% to 42% margin. But among cellphone interviews, the candidates are tied: McCain 48% and Obama 49%. Those interviewed on cell phone are more likely to be young and young voters heavily favor Obama."

The poll was conducted from October 25-28, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4% for registered voters and plus-minus 5% for likely voters.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/30/1615208.aspx

[David__77]

1. I don't want to get caught up in this again like in 2004.

I know that the effect would be bigger this time, but let's just work hard and hope for as wide a victory on Tuesday as we can achieve!

[pokercat999]

2. We need as wide a margin as possible. The first two years

of the Obama Administration promises to be troublesome with two wars and a sick economy he's going to need all the support and understanding he can get.

[AlCzervik]

3. My step Mom was in SC last week, her sister lives there, she told me there is some

race for the state senate or assembly down there that has gotten really nasty, the dem running is a pro choice pro gun women. She told me she almost no signs at all for McCain or Obama.

[Corgigal]

4. I live in SC

My neighborhood has two Obama signs and no McCain signs. Once in a while I will see a McCain bumper sticker but they are far and few between.
South Carolina is closer then 11 percent. I say between 5 and 6 percent. Obama's campaign just mentioned putting new resources into SC and Georgia for a reason. Obama opened up a wonderful headquarters here, the first time in 25 years that a Democratic Presidential candidate has done this.
We might not be able to get around the fundies to give the state to Obama, but maybe we can pull some new Congressmen out of this bunch. I got a mailer from Lindsey Graham yesterday. The Republican party called us last night. They are running scared. It's all good.

[dhpgetsit]

5. Shhhhhhh!

I think this works to our advantage if they are not expecting it.