“There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain”

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Undecideds an unlikely ‘life raft’ for McCain

The pool of undecided voters remains as large as one in 10, but John McCain can hardly rely on them to overtake Barack Obama. According to past election results, those voters who decided in the last week of a campaign are unlikely to break decisively for either candidate and dramatically alter Tuesday's race.

In the past eight presidential contests, voters who made up their minds during the last week of the campaign never went for either ticket by large margins of 3-2 or 2-1, which potentially could tip the scales.

“There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain,” said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

Pew recently conducted an internal analysis of its polls and concluded that undecided voters were likely to split about equally between McCain and Obama on Election Day, meaning the group is more evenly split between the two candidates than the electorate overall, Kohut said. In the coming days, Pew, like the Gallup poll, will finalize its best estimate for how undecided voters will cast their ballots...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15074.html

[Two Sheds]

1. the only problem with Pew's analysis here is the phrase...

"According to past election results." This isn't past elections. The factor of white middle-class squeamishness towards a person of color being Presiden't wasn't a factor in past elections.

That being said, Pew has looked into this and stands by its opinion. If they're right, the election is going to be called early on Tues. and Obama' PV margin will be big. Maybe even huge.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. I expect something near 50-50 on late deciders

I believe in the hidden racist vote. I also know that late deciders tend to break against the incumbent party.

So they probably cancel each other out.

Even if McCain wins undecideds 60-40 that is a net gain of only 20% of undecideds, which is only 1-2 points.