The McCain "surge" or how I look at recent polls from my perspective.

[Bread and Circus]

Like many of you, I've noticed John McCain eking up ever so slightly these past few days without Obama slipping. My sense is that McCain is coming up to his natural steady state and that his numbers were "artificially" low for a while based on a couple things. One, McCain bottomed out due to the hyperacute sense of economic crisis when the banks were crashing and two, John McCain did and said a lot of really dumb things right around then. The point is that when McCain was polling at 40% it's a basement for him, he had no where to go but up.

I think the polls for the past several weeks indicate true and solid support for Barack and soft support for McCain which fell away with the hyperacute phase of the crisis and is now only returning because there's a bit of distance between McCain and some of his most embarrassing moments.

All of this is also colored by the Palin effect which I think has had an overall action of hardening the electorate into their respective camps. She is polarizing to say the least. Overall, I think she has had a negative effect for McCain, because unlike a Romney, there's no way you can somehow spin her as "being right for these times".

My expectation is that McCain will likely halt around 45 to 48% support and Obama will hold at around 49 to 51% while retaining a large solid and real lead in the key battleground states. The gestalt I get is that Obama supporters aren't flipping to McCain but rather we are seeing McCain supporters who were too ashamed to declare before are now "coming home".

Barring outright election theft by the Republicans, via Diebold, voter suppression/purging, and trashcanning votes, Obama is highly likely going to win next Tuesday.

Bottom line: McCain is recovering a bit of his base but he's not gaining momentum at the expense of Obama's support.

Why this matters: The bandwagon effect and voter turnout.

People like winners and it is important to be seen as a winner going into tuesday. The RW media apparatus is going into overdrive to make this look like McCain is coming back and will overtake Obama by election day to galvanize the meme that Obama is just not ready and just "not like us". It's not working and as long as Obama continues to do what he did last night, which was to own the airwaves, Obama will continue to hold off the horde at the gates. I think the 30 minute ad will help to solidify the bandwagon firmly in Obama's court but he needs to keep possession of the news cycle right up until the polls close.

Perception also affects voter turnout and I'm convinced that McCain has more to lose in this. Though we need to be mindful of complacency and its ill effect, the GOP has to worry about widespread demoralization. If people "know" McCain is going to lose and they don't really like him in the first place, they aren't going to suffer long lines at the polls. On the other hand, even if we "know" Obama is going to win, we will still "want to vote for the next POTUS!" and will gladly suffer those long lines as a badge of pride.

So, anyway, I think all things considered and knock on wood, this is looking like it might happen but Obama has to retain control of the news cycle from here on out.