The polls are not tightening. They are becoming more precise, settling into a nice 5-6% Obama lead.

[Brotherjohn]

Now, as to accuracy, I don't know. I'd venture to say the real popular vote lead is a little greater, based on nationwide, non-tracking polls like the latest Pew (at 15%).

But look at the latest Daily Trackers on RCP... they all come in at 3-8%, and the low ones are trending slightly upwards the past day or so. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)

Even Research2000, not shown on RCP and typically higher, is down to 5% (http://www.dailykos.com/). That's more evidence of the developing precision, not tightening.

I don't know... a solid 5-6% lead is pretty nice if I do say so myself! That translates to a 300 or more Electoral Vote gain, as the EV maps have been predicting, and similar to what Clinton did in 1992.

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. Yep. My prediction - Obama with 364 EV.

[msongs]

2. 5% of 150 million votes = 7.5 million votes lead nt

[matchstick]

3. yep your right there 10% win is unrealistic, 5-6% is huge by any standard!