Obama will win Florida and could pull off a win in GA, though a long shot

[ProSense]

Previous election popular vote totals:

1992
GEORGIA
Clinton: 1,008,966
Bush: 995,252
Perot: 309,657

FLORIDA
Bush: 2,171,781
Clinton: 2,071,651
Perot: 1,052,481

1996
FLORIDA
Clinton: 2,546,870
Dole: 2,244,536
Perot: 483,870

GEORGIA
Clinton: 1,053,849
Dole: 1,080,843
Perot: 146,337

2000
FLORIDA
Bush: 2,912,790
Gore: 2,912,253
Nader: 97,488

GEORGIA
Bush: 1,419,720
Gore: 1,116,230

2004
FLORIDA
Bush: 3,964,522
Kerry: 3,583,544
Nader: 32,971

GEORGIA
Bush: 1,914,254
Kerry: 1,366,149
Nader: 2,231

2008 poll averages

FLORIDA
Obama 48.2%
McCain 45.3%

GEORGIA
McCain 48.2%
Obama 46.2%

[ProSense]

1. Looks like McCain will take Arizona

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.
link

[ProSense]

2. Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida

Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida

By Greg Sargent - October 30, 2008

Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read have a nice little scooplet (no link yet):

Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running.

The image of Gore in Florida, for obvious reasons, will be a powerful one for rank-and-file Dems. Also note the extraordinary amount of attention that the Obama camp is lavishing on the state in the home stretch.

Bill Clinton was there yesterday with Obama, who holds a rally there this morning, and now Gore tomorrow. You have to imagine that all the Dem activity in this state, which was supposed

Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Kreider emails to confirm that the events are indeed set to go.

[ProSense]

3. Battle for Florida: Blacks turn out in droves, but few young people have voted

Battle for Florida: Blacks turn out in droves, but few young people have voted

Blacks turn out in droves, but few young people have voted

Aaron Deslatte and Vicki McClure | Sentinel Staff Writers
October 30, 2008

Less than a week from a potentially landmark presidential election, black voters in Florida are turning out in huge numbers to vote early, according to an Orlando Sentinel analysis.

So are people 55 and older. And Democrats.

But voters younger than 35 -- especially the college-age group that has drawn so much attention from Democrat Barack Obama's campaign -- are doing what they have largely done in elections past: staying home.

A Sentinel analysis of the record 1.4 million ballots cast during the first nine days of early voting compared the age, race and party affiliation of those who voted early against a list of Florida's 11.2 million registered voters. It showed:

*More than one in five early voters -- 22 percent -- was black, though blacks account for just over 13 percent of the electorate. Obama is the first black person running for president as a major-party nominee, and his campaign has made an effort to turn out the black vote early.

*More than half of all the early voters were 55 or older, with a bit more than 29 percent of them 65 or older and 22 percent ages 55 to 64. Combined, those in this group comprise about 40 percent of the total electorate and are considered the most reliable voters.

*Nearly 54 percent were Democrats, a group that makes up 42 percent of the electorate. And just 30 percent were Republicans, whose registrants total 36 percent of registered voters.

*Young people are turning out in disproportionately low numbers. Though major registration efforts this year boosted their totals to nearly 25 percent of the total electorate, voters younger than 35 represent only 15 percent of early voters, making them the worst-performing demographic group in the analysis.

<...>

Dems hold registration lead

Democrats this year have stretched their overall voter-registration lead to 657,000 voters, thanks largely to blacks and young people.

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[ProSense]

4. Another good sign for Obama

Survey: American Jews Favor Obama Over McCain by Wide Margin

By Mohamed Elshinnawi
Washington
30 October 2008

<...>

One of the most striking findings in the American Jewish Committee's annual opinion poll - a phone survey conducted in late September with one thousand American Jews - is that support for Obama is not higher than it is.

"Senator Obama has 57 percent of the Jewish vote, and Senator McCain has 30 percent, and there's a 13 percent undecided, so the undecided number is a little bit higher than what we'd expect at this stage of the campaign," says Kenneth Bandler, director of communications at the nonpartisan American Jewish Committee.

"Senator Obama getting only 57 percent, it's a bit lower than one would expect from the Jewish electorate at this stage of the campaign," Bandler says. "(Democratic) Senator (John) Kerry in 2004 at the same stage had 69 percent of the Jewish vote, and then he ended up with 76 percent."

<...>

Bandler says he believes this year's Jewish vote will be crucial in deciding contests in so-called swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and especially Florida, where support for both candidates is fairly strong:

"Jewish voters account for as much as 5 percent of the total vote in Florida," he says. "So that's one of the reasons both candidates, McCain and Obama, have been spending so much time in Florida to court the Jewish vote, but also to court the Cuban-American vote. Those are critically important in Florida, and other ethnic groups there."

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OK, done talking to myself.

[ProSense]

5. Had to check out Virginia and West Virginia

1992

VIRGINIA
Bush: 1,150,517
Clinton: 1,038,650
Perot: 348,639

WEST VIRGINIA
Bush: 241,974
Clinton: 331,001
Perot: 108,829


1996

VIRGINIA
Clinton: 1,091,060
Dole: 1,183,350
159,861 06.6

WEST VIRGINIA
Clinton: 327,812
Dole: 233,946 36.8
Perot: 71,639 11.3

2000

VIRGINIA
Bush: 1,437,490
Gore: 1,217,290
Nader: 59,398

WEST VIRGINIA
Bush: 336,475
Gore: 295,497
Nader: 10,455

2004

VIRGINIA
Bush: 1,716,959
Kerry: 1,454,742

WEST VIRGINIA
Bush: 423,778
Kerry:326,541


2008 poll averages

VIRGINIA
Obama 51.3%
McCain 43.2%

WEST VIRGINIA
McCain 51.6%
Obama 40.8%

Virginia looking great for Obama

[FUCK_BUSH]

6. I pray to god that he wins FL.It's very very important.

[ProSense]

7. Missouri

1992

MISSOURI
Bush: 811,159
Clinton: 1,053,873

1996

MISSOURI
CLinton: 1,025,935
Dole: 890,016

2000
MISSOURI
Bush: 1,189,924
Gore: 1,111,138

2004

MISSOURI
Bush: 1,455,713
Kerry: 1,259,171

Kerry beat Bush in the most populated areas.

Jackson
Kerry: 58.1% 183,654
Bush: 41.3% 130,500

St. Louis City
Kerry: 80.3% 116,133
Bush:19.2% 27,793

St. Louis County
Kerry: 54.4% 295,284
Bush: 45.1% 244,969


2008 poll averages

MISSOURI
Obama: 48.4%
McCain: 46.7%

[ProSense]

8. Biden in Missouri

Biden rallies faithful in Jefferson County

Rachel Lippmann, KWMU
ST. LOUIS, MO
(2008-10-30)

Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden was in Arnold Thursday on another busy political day for Missouri.

<...>

In his speech to a crowd of about a thousand at Fox High School, Biden continued Democratic efforts to tie John McCain to the unpopular George Bush.

"I know Halloween's coming. But John McCain, dressed up as an agent of change, that costume doesn't fit, folks. Folks ain't gonna buy that costume," Biden said to applause.

Arnold is the largest city in Jefferson County, a swing county in a swing state. President Bush beat John Kerry here by just 570 of 93,000 case votes in 2004. Most of the county's delegation in Jefferson City is Democratic, as is its Congressman, Russ Carnahan, who's positive the county will turn blue this year.

"I've been around politics in Missouri for many years, starting with my dad's campaign back in 1980. And I have never seen the level of energy and enthusiasm," Carnahan said. He is the son of the late governor Mel Carnahan.

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[ProSense]

9. How Obama might just win Ohio

How Obama might just win Ohio

In the state that broke Democratic hearts in 2004, favorable poll numbers and a wave of early voters could point to victory.

By Walter Shapiro

Oct. 31, 2008 | COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Buckeye stops here. Ohio is where Democratic dreams died four years ago as John Kerry came up 120,000 votes short of winning the state's 20 electoral votes and the White House.

But this year all the signs and portents are pointing in the opposite direction. Barack Obama has led in the last 11 published statewide polls, breaking the 50 percent threshold in the most recent survey released Thursday. Unlike 2004, the Democrats control the levers of state government, with Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner now portrayed by the Republicans as being as overtly partisan as her notorious GOP predecessor Ken Blackwell.

With all this good fortune, no wonder prominent Democrats are nervous. "This is not over until 7:30 on the night of Nov. 4 when the polls close," said Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, an early and avid supporter of Obama. "I know the other side will do all they can -- say anything -- to discourage the vote and to sway voters and persuade them. I hope it doesn't get any nastier from the other side. And we have to turn out our vote. Voter turnout is the key."

...>

Even though once reliably Republican Franklin County has been trending Democratic in recent years (Kerry won here by 48,000 votes in 2004 while Al Gore eked out a 5,000-vote margin in 2000), the early-voting center seemed like an intergenerational Obama rally. From partisan social workers to suburban librarians to cellists from the imperiled Columbus Symphony, this was a Tina Fey -- not a Sarah Palin -- crowd. McCain, in fact, will be in Columbus Friday afternoon accompanied not by Palin but by a political figure more apt to appeal to independents in Ohio's largest city -- Arnold Schwarzenegger.

<...>

This is the first year that in-person early voting has been permitted in Ohio, so there are no easy comparisons of turnout figures. Due to a shortage of voting machines in Franklin County in 2004, Election Day waits of as long as four hours were common; anecdotal evidence suggested that thousands of potential Kerry voters went home without casting a ballot. This time around, not only is the Obama campaign encouraging early voting, but Democrats are apt to be motivated on their own to come down to the Veterans Memorial to beat the Election Day traffic.

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