The Daily Widget, Thur 10/30 – O-378, M-160 – Missouri Very Close; New Hampshire Safe

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-one new state polls were released yesterday, and Barack Obama’s record for this set of polls is 26-5. Of the polls released, 23 are for swing states, 5 are for blue states, and 3 are for red states. Obama’s popular vote lead is still holding around 10.5 million over John McCain. The only state to switch columns today is New Hampshire, which is now polling on average with an Obama lead of +11.5. It moves from the Weak Obama to the Strong Obama column today. With only 5 days remaining, John McCain now needs to find more than 2 million votes every day between now and Tuesday to catch up to Obama.





On the flip side, Missouri is looking very close at the moment, as Obama’s lead there diminishes on average to +0.3. It’s not unusual for Democratic Presidential candidates to do well in Missouri. In the past three election cycles, Clinton, Gore and Kerry each garnered at least 46% of the Missouri vote. But if there is no viable third party candidate, the republican candidate usually performs a little bit better, at or around 50%. The key for Democrats to winning in Missouri is the McCaskill plan: Win by large margins in the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, and keep it close around Springfield. Since voter registration is up by 15% this year over 2004, and much of this increase has been seen in St. Louis County, Obama still has a good chance of winning in Missouri on Tuesday.








(The “Votemaster” at Electoral-Vote.com must be sleeping in again today)



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alaska Obama 41, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 44, McCain 46 (AZ State University, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1029 RV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 41, Barr 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Colorado Obama 53, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 774 LV)
Delaware Obama 63, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 657 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 43, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1435 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 747 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 52 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 690 LV)
Kansas Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Michigan Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 55, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 825 LV)
Nevada Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 628 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 37, Nader 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 58, McCain 34 (University of NH, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 661 LV)
New Mexico Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 62, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 633 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 46, Barr 0 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 41 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 661 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 40 (Franklin & Marshall, 10/24, +/- 4.2, 560 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.7, 1364 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 713 LV)
Virginia Obama 49, McCain 42, N1, M1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 53, McCain 44 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 721 LV)
Washington Obama 54, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Washington Obama 56, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 630 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 53, McCain 42 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[tekisui]

1. Way to go, NH!

Now, CO, let's make it over 270 over 10%. Looking very good.


Hey, phrign, I have been thinking about the Early voting. In, NC, for example, over 45% of 2004 vote total have already voted. And, the Dem turnout has been over 53%. In effect, Obama should have some solid points in the "bank". Would it be accurate to look at the current polls in light of that. In other words, with a strong Early Vote point lead, Obama could win with just, say,44% or so of the Election Day vote, in some states. Can I look at today's polls in that light, or does it not work like that?:hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Yes, Colorado needs to catch up to NH :)

You're right about projecting a percentage of election day votes considering early voting results ... with the assumption that Democrats have voted for Obama and republicans have voted for McCain in early voting. The conundrum is how you split up the Independents.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

7. I can leave INdys out, or split them 50/50 for a

worst case scenario.

[phrigndumass]

14. True ... and you could also use a range :)

If 100% of Independents voted for Obama in early voting, then he would need X% on election day, and if 0% of Independents voted for Obama in early voting, then he would need Y% on election day. There's your range :D

And then you can notate it with an assumption that 50% of Independents have voted for Obama in early voting, and it will be in the middle of that range.

:7

[fight4my3sons]

2. Good morning, phrig!

Thank you again for all this great info!

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

5. Thank you for greeting me every morning :)

I look forward to it! You'll need to PM me every morning for about a month after the election to wean me off, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[fight4my3sons]

8. You know I will!

:loveya:

You'll have to send LMD some kind of graph from time to time. I don't know what he is going to do in the mornings before school. :D

[phrigndumass]

16. I'll do it! :)

Gotta keep my newly found graph-making skills fresh, so I'll share them with you and Lil Math Dude :7

:loveya: :bounce:

[gademocrat7]

4. Good morning, Mr. P.

The Widget continues to look good. Hopefully, MO will go for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

6. Fingers crossed :)

The registration numbers in St. Louis County are keeping me optimistic about Missouri. :D

:donut: Good morning, gd7! :hi:

[a kennedy]

9. Oh my gosh, look at all the little blue squares!!!!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: Thanks P!! as always you made my day!! :hug:

[phrigndumass]

17. I noticed that, too :)

Only a few red squares in the bunch :hug:

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Smuckies]

10. Love reading this

Missouri will be interesting. I definitely think we can sneak it in! :9

[phrigndumass]

19. I'm hopeful about MO

Even a little optimistic :7

:donut: Good morning, Smuckies! :hi:

[graywarrior]

11. NH may be safe, but I'm still out there til election day for 2 shifts of canvassing

[phrigndumass]

21. And that is the only reason NH is becoming safe :)

People like you putting your lives on hold to help Obama win and keep the republicans from wrecking the country further.

Thanks for working in NH, gray! :donut: Good morning! :hi:

[graywarrior]

30. .

:hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

12. Good news with NH ! Thank you for this !

I wonder after the Obama special last night, which I thought was brilliant, and then the joint appearance with Clinton late last night in FL, when and how much of a boost there will be in the polls ? Will the impact on the polling show up by this weekend ? How long did it take with the debates which always gave Obama a boost in the polls ? Again, thank you !!!

[phrigndumass]

22. I'm hoping those things will give us a boost in the polling booths ...

... regardless of the poll results :) There's not much time left to poll, so we might not find out until Monday how Obama's infomercial affected likely voters. The daily trackers definitely won't show the full result of these things until Sunday or Monday.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

33. Oh, Sunday or Monday, brilliant timing again for Obama, he is good !

Perfect timing to set the tone for election day. Love the brilliance of the Obama camp ! Have a nice day, and again, thank you ! For all your hard work crunching numbers, I am sending you, via the airways, a piping hot homemade cinnamon and pecan muffin to go with that cup of coffee and donut :)

[phrigndumass]

43. mmmmm .... muffin! :)

I eat your muffin, lol :D

:hi:

Will anyone see CADEM's muffin and raise with a brownie? Or go all in and bake a whole pie?

[CADEMOCRAT7]

47. Pie !!!!! Did you say pie !!!!!

Celebration November 4th Sweet Potato pie in the works ! The pie is almost baked !!!!

[phrigndumass]

48. You're pushing all the right buttons, lol

:D

[mucifer]

13. Thanks Phrig!

Looks like mccain has us right where he wants us.

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

23. LOL ... McCain is giving us fodder for comedy gold :)

Obama is leading by 75% ... we have him right where we want him :rofl:

:donut: Good morning, mucifer! :hi:

[radfringe]

15. I know it will take a couple of days

but I'm anxious to see what kind of effect Obama's 30-min ad will have on the polls

[phrigndumass]

24. We might not see the full effect of that until Monday :)

But that will be just about the right time to have an effect :D

:donut: Good morning, rad! :hi:

[radfringe]

27. g'morning back at ya! n/t

[myrna minx]

18. Good morning dear.

I'm going to move myself from the weak optimism column to strong optimism today. :D I hope you know how much I appreciate your work. It has been an anchor for me every morning. :loveya:

Have you picked out a bottle of champagne yet?

[phrigndumass]

25. It's hard not to be optimistic :)

I'm already in the strong optimism column, and it's well-decorated. But it could still use your touch so come on over :D

btw, I appreciate you as well. You've been reading along for lo these many months! :loveya:

I'm dissing the champagne and going with an extra fine mocha latte with bon bons ...

:donut: Good morning, myrna! :hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Thanks P!

K/R

[phrigndumass]

26. yw, prod :)

So happy we're on the same team :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[mmonk]

28. .

:thumbsup:

:donut:

[phrigndumass]

29. :)

:hi:

:donut:

:P

[phrigndumass]

31. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[Kukesa]

32. This is the best post of the day and I had to search for it on Page 2! n/t

[phrigndumass]

38. :)

(thanks!)

Did you know you can see all my posts in one place, on one page? Here's a link:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

You can take a trip back in time and see how the whole race has happened, even back to the primaries. I've been doing this since early March, lol

:hi:

[grantcart]

34. Shouldn't Missouri be in the lean McCain column

Missour is just a flirt


She will be back.

[phrigndumass]

39. Nope, Obama +0.3

:P

So, Missouri is sassy? :rofl:

[cliffordu]

35. Excellent, as usual, phrig....K&R!!

[phrigndumass]

40. Are you insinuating something there? What are you *really* trying to say?

(kidding)

Thanks! :hi:

[RiverStone]

36. As objectively as possible, what would you speculate the odds are of an O victory?

How about 94% and gaining a point per day till Tuesday. :)

Of course, this is not factoring in voting machine screw ups. :shrug:

Thanks for the usual excellent analysis P! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

41. My fortune cookie says ...

100% probability of winning, but with a 90% strength of projection. In other words, Obama already has what he needs to win but there are still enough Undecideds out there to make the race closer.

:hi:

[RiverStone]

46. With a fortune like that, we ALL are gonna get some cookies!

Like it! :woohoo:

[grantcart]

37. more good news

Allstate/NJ Poll: All B'Ground State Leads For Obama

[phrigndumass]

42. Lots of Undecideds in that group

But the upside is that National Journal is using registered voters instead of likely voters, so the margins are most likely wider than what they are showing for Obama in those states.

Just gotta read between the lines, lol

:hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

44. Kick!

And I must admit, I really love the ***New*** Huckabee Index!

[JeffR]

45. K & R!

:kick: