The Real Scoop on Florida Early Voting:

[nyccitizen]

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Seen a few threads here talking about Florida "Exit Polls", one showing Obama behind -4 and another showing him up by the same margin.

Look at the link. With 34% of the 2004 vote totals already cast, 45% of early votes are absentee (typically skew GOP) and 55 percent are in-person (typically skew Dem). Of ALL early votes (absentee and in-person), party ID is Dem 45, GOP 39, Ind 16.

Keep in mind there is a difference between "Exit Polls" and "Early Voting Tallies". A figure that includes absentee ballots is not an "Exit Poll" and shouldn't be labelled as such. Also keep in mind that as we approach election day that the percentage of absentee ballots will go down in comparison to in-person votes.

Again, we don't know for sure who cast votes for whom, but a look at the absentee/in-person breakdown and the overall party ID stats paints an unbiased picture of what's going on in FL right now.