On Rachel tonight: Early voting exit polling in Florida shows Obama losing 45 to 49.

[Fran Kubelik]

Do you think this is an indication of how the state will go?

On edit: as seen on Rachel Maddow.

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01

On further edit: I am not trying to be negative, stir up shit, or be trollish. I saw this graphic on Rachel Maddow and was surprised at the numbers.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. No.

[MarjorieG]

Exit polling, even if pro-Obama, doesn't reflect actual, counted vote.

Exit polls used to be reliable before e-voting.

[WeDidIt]

2. Linkie n/t

[slick8790]

3. Link or slink n/t

[A-Schwarzenegger]

4. Link?

Thanks.

[high density]

5. Who knows.

We'll have to see on November 4.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Do you have a source?

[bigdarryl]

7. Where the hell are those numbers coming from? LINK PLEASE

[NightWatcher]

8. where were these exit pollers? No one asked me. I voted in a HEAVY Dem area (Riverside Jax)

[VeraAgnes]

9. CNN 's John King, with his magic map.....

has Florida a solid lead for Obama.

Oh, I DO have a link .............

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

[DevonRex]

30. Thank you Vera. You're the best. :) nt

[VeraAgnes]

77. Anytime!

:hi:

[fugop]

10. Absentee ...

Does this include absentees, which heavily favored GOP in the past there?

[bigdarryl]

31. I think it is time to stop posting the poll numbers and get the hell out and VOTE

[csziggy]

74. Or get the hell out and get other voters to VOTE

The campaign needs people to contact voters who have not voted regularly in the past. And contact all those newly registered voters and make sure they vote. Very few of the teams for the campaign have enough people scheduled and the experts are telling us that half of the people who promise to come will show up. So make sure we win - VOLUNTEER!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

86. No - they poll people as they're leaving the polls

n/t

[Unsane]

11. I saw it too, on Rachel Maddow.

[Zuiderelle]

49. I saw it as well, on Maddow, a Bloomberg poll.

Hopefully, it will convince people to GO OUT AND VOTE!

[GoesTo11]

12. Yes I do. That's why

I'm buying a whole lot of McCain Florida shares on Intrade, since it's about 70-30 Obama's favor there.

[NightWatcher]

15. never bet against your own team, Pete Rose, it doesnt look right

[GoesTo11]

26. Just kidding. Intrade buyers don't read this as a problem

Actually, the AP poll shows Obama a little ahead in early voters in Florida. And, I think it understates his numbers there. In other states he leads by more, but in Florida, a large number refuse to say how they voted, and these are quite possibly AA voters who have concerns about the privacy of their votes.

[Danger Mouse]

24. I hope this is a sad attempt at a joke.

[grantcart]

13. why would you publish such results without a source?

how can it be evaluated?

[Fran Kubelik]

36. Sorry, grantcart, I was typing while watching Rachel

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01

[book_worm]

14. It was just shown on the Maddow show as she was talking about early voting

and some guy having to "talk her down", on the other hand it also showed that early voting in Ohio is strongly for Obama. It's from the Bloomberg/Times poll.

[sarahdemva]

i am getting really tired of maddow

[Political Heretic]

37. Yes, damn that fucking truth!

Damn it to hell I say!

Fetch me hither only information that doth confirm only what I already want to believe, naive!

[jonnyblitz]

57. yeah it's better she tell us lies so our feelings aren't hurt.

:sarcasm: some of you are seriously off the fucking deep end. :crazy: :crazy:

[Fran Kubelik]

66. hey jonny!

:thumbsup:

[Chrisnreno]

22. Yeah, this was on Rachel Maddow's show earlier.

She also mentioned that the exit poll showed that 6% of early voters in Florida actually "don't know" who they voted for! Weird...

[Touchdown]

16. I find it very hard to believe

I mean really. Does anybody really believe that Floridians are waiting in line for 3-4 hours to vote for McCain? They find him THAT exiting?:wtf:

[Schulzz]

17. The same poll had Obama ahead with LV 50-43.

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2008-10/43084942.pdf

[AlCzervik]

18. i found a link-

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01

[Ichingcarpenter]

29. Confusing conflicting data even they said that

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

[AlCzervik]

i'm not getting worried just yet, it's one indicator that will hopefully gotv for the good side.

[Ichingcarpenter]

54. I've seen the lines on TV it didn't look like a lot of Republicans standing in line

Bill Clinton and Obama tonight, The Cuban endorsement from today, Obama's infomercial,
GOTV, 6-1 TV commercial advantage,

They will all bring it over the top, I'm not worried either.

[AlCzervik]

58. and they will do or say anything to make us give up, that's the name of their game

so i trust almost nothing at this point besides my own daily gut check.

[Phoonzang]

19. Yes. I don't expect him to win Florida. Oh well. nt

[Name removed]

27. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[seven7sign]

20. Not exit polling

It's not exit polling, its from the LA Times/Bloomberg poll from yesterday..which polls all likely voters, including people who already have voted.

It contrasts with the AP poll today that had Obama leading 45-38 in early voting. It's also important to note that absentee voting in Florida which makes up about 45% of early voters so far likely skew Republican.

[Abacus]

21. That's what the Bloomberg poll said, but the Florida early voting results

are 45.4% - 39.0% in favor of Dems according to http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html My impression has been that these results are more conclusive, but perhaps someone can correct me if I am wrong.

[sixmile]

23. Link right here

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1086

"Poll gives McCain lead in Fla. early voting"

[RBInMaine]

40. ONE POLL = OBAMA way up, and other McSAME a little up. Stop worrying !

[stillcool]

55. not really..

But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

[kestrel91316]

25. Careful you don't "out" yourself, there...........lol

Provide link or we'll have no doubts.

[AlCzervik]

28. here-

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01

[WeDidIt]

41. Subset of a poll giving Obama the lead 50-47

ergo, the margin of error on the subset would be somewhere right around 12% based upon roughly 10% having already voted.

[AlCzervik]

46. i'm not getting worried just yet, it's one indicator that will hopefully gotv for the good side.

[WCGreen]

64. 12% more like 20%...

There is no way that anyone could or should have pulled a meaningless stat out of that poll for public distribution.

[WindRiverMan]

45. The way I read it is that McCain is ahead in ABSENTEE ballots

not the same as all early voters.


I dunno.

[AlCzervik]

53. i just found the link, that's all i figured before everyone started calling the op a troll

which imo she is not at all i'd try and find a link.

[soccermomforobama]

59. That is how I am reading it also

[WeDidIt]

32. No Link. We gave you a shot. Ergo, you LIAF!

[votetastic]

63. Wow, I just noticed that Ashley's kind of smirking in that photo

It's very subtle, but it looks like she having "the most fun you can have with your clothes on".

[Fran Kubelik]

69. whatever

:eyes:

[Touchdown]

33. Where was the exit polling, Titusville?

Just asking.;)

[progressivebydesign]

34. You left important issues out.. so did Maddow (our own Cassandra)

The poll, which was mentioned along with other polls, is qualified thusly "Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error." Get it? "WIDE MARGIN OF ERROR" and "Only a TINY fraction of Florida respondents reported voting early."

Someone else put the link up in the thread.. but c'mon. If you read the whole article, you see that the poll Maddow is hypervenilating over is not considered solid.

Do we HAVE TO suffer thru this shit for the next 6 days?

[Political Heretic]

47. Yes, absolutely, You're very right. However, the information about the exit poll is still real

The problem isn't with the information itself, the problem with is how its interpreted. You've interpreted it very wisely I think. However, I'm not angry or offended that anyone reported on what the exit polls so far have found, just because it doesn't show numbers I want to see.

[FloridaGrl]

35. No

That's one poll. Quinnipiac had 58-34 favoring Obama.

[Double T]

38. In political elections, NOTHING is certain!

This election will be much closer than most imagine. Make sure YOU are taking your aspirin regimen.

[RoadRage]

39. LOT'S of Millitary Absentee Ballots..

Republicans always win this vote.. and usually by a much MUCH bigger margin then where they're currently at. He's gonna do fine.. it'll be close, but we got this one. ;)

[NYC_SKP]

42. One poll, only one of many polls, showed McCain ahead. Big fucking deal.

"But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

:shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

43. McCain camp said that if they even have to seriously compete for Florida, McCain has lost

And I take them at their word on that one.

[brianna69]

44. This is False

Democrats are actually now ahead in early voting. Early voting total being both In -person voting and absentee mail in ballots. This is fantastic news as republicans normally have a substantial headstart via early voting in Florida by posting good numbers by absentee mail in ballots. The Obama campaign's aggressive early voting push - now has surpassed the mail in ballot dominance of the republicans by exceeding them via In - Person Early voting with people standing in lines for up to 4 hours to cast their votes. Early Voting is going great.

Florida - 2,590,640(Total early voting to date).


Party
Dem 45.4%
Rep 39.0%
No/Oth 15.6%

Ballot
Absentee 45.4%
In-person 54.6%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[RagAss]

78. True !...This Floridian agrees.

[Cush]

48. More info from the article. Quinnipiac has Obama leading

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

[Higher Standard]

52. You beat me to it

Reading the whole article, it's clear that different polls are coming up with different results, so it's a bit early to be calling the early voting one way or the other.

[blitzen]

50. I'm sure that's counting absentees....which go heavily GOP...

and of which there were several hundred thousand. Obama has caught up and will pass by a lot by the time early voting in FL is done.

[Political Heretic]

51. How can you do exit polling on absentees?

[blitzen]

61. same way they do it for early voters....

they call people, ask 'em if they've voted. ask 'em who they voted for. that would include all who have voted, both absentee and early. Bottom line is, that tally definitely included absentees

[AtomicKitten]

56. No worries, grasshopper. Obama has several paths to victory.

[quaker bill]

60. and the point

of her bringing it up was to show the 6% still "undecided" among those who theoretically have already voted. Now either these folks are not voting the top of the ticket.... or the polling is rather messed up.

[Fran Kubelik]

65. I know - that's pretty funny!

[WCGreen]

62. Read the article...

Only about 10% or so of the people surveyed have voted early...

It's basically meaningless...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

67. Rachel Maddow is really getting on my nerves. Her rhetoric is demoralizing and irresponsible.

There are millions of volunteers who are working their asses off day in and day out and she is really pissing me off with her defeatist, whiny attitude.

[Fran Kubelik]

68. Wait...what?

Defeatist? Whiny?

I'm one of the volunteers working my ass off 5 days a week. I love Rachel. :shrug:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

88. I'm not saying that I don't live Rachel. I think she is very smart and is very

effective when she goes after the Neocon nuts. But she has been such a demoralizing force. We don't need that. I'm also not suggesting that she only provide a rosy picture of what's happening on the ground. To the contrary. The issue that I have with her is that she is irresponsibly upsetting the morale on the ground. I've been listening to Rachel since the launch of Air America. I'm only saying that she is truly on my nerves with her pessimistic outlook.

[totodeinhere]

76. So she is only supposed to report stories that favor Obama?

If there is a poll showing the Obama is losing in the Florida early voting, I want to know about it. Maddow's job is not to be a cheerleader for either side. Her job is to report and give commentary and then to let the chips fall where they may.

[woolldog]

80. No. But she doesn't have to put a negative spin on everything.

This early voting figure is meaningles because of the high margin of error. In order to get any valid information on the question of who's winning early voting, you'd have to oversample people who have already voted. But only a tiny fraction of those who participated in the LAT poll voted early, so the numbers are meaningless b/c of the high margin of error.

[OmahaBlueDog]

70. LET THIS MOTIVATE YOU! GOTV

If you are a Floridian, vote tomorrow, and if you know Obama supporters who have not voted, bring them with you.

[Fran Kubelik]

73. YES!!

Exactly! :bounce:

[mohc]

71. If only a "tiny fraction" report voting early

Then this poll is not accurate. With over 2.5 million early voters, over 1 in 5 registered voters have already voted. Unless the final vote numbers are ridiculously high, then the early vote numbers are probably close to 1 in 4 or better of all likely voters. If this poll is showing it as a tiny fraction, there is something wrong with the poll.

[csziggy]

75. Over 28% of registered voters in Leon County had voted by Friday

That is hardly a tiny percent. Our Supervisor of Elections is estimating we will have an 80-85% turnout rate.

The article is scewed to make Obama's chances look slim.

ETA: Maybe the polls are scewed since so many Obama supporters are out canvassing and working for the campaign?

[Zynx]

72. They wouldn't release those numbers yet. I call B.S.

[grantcart]

79. 1/3 of Floridas 2004 vote has been made but the poll was done

with only a tiny fraction of the respondents

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.




Its a poll but it is not a scientific poll and that is why they state it has a 'wide margin of error'.

[BlooInBloo]

81. Get out the vote!!! It's not wait-and-see time yet!!!

[GetTheRightVote]

82. It is probably showing how the repubs are stealing it again

and why the governor allowed longer voting hours, hmmmmm. I am use to the ugliness of repubs in florida and it is not good at all. I hope Obama's lawyers are watching over them in the sunshine state. I really do.

:grr::grr::grr::grr:

[Dems4me]

83. Florida DUer's what do you think? n/t

[win_in_06]

84. How can there be such a discrepancy between pre-polls and exit polls?

Bradley?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

85. We have a lot of people who just came down from up North....

A lot of them might be Dem voters who are waiting to vote. We also get a lot of absentee votes - but that usually benefits the Repubs.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

87. Some people are pissed about the votes not counting initially down here.

I was pissed and so was my friend but we still voted for Obama. I have another friend who voted McCain who usually votes Dem however so that might be a factor with a small number of people. In Florida even a small number could make a difference though. We usually vote along the same lines as other swing states so it surprises me that we would be out of line with the other states.