"It would be a bigger upset if Obama won by 10 points than if McCain won by one."

[cyberpj]

Thanks for that Chuck - I see you're already either hedging bets or setting us up for the steal.

Just how many people can truly be "undecided" at this point in time?!?
(He doesn't give any figures in his article.)

And can someone tell me how many of those states he lists that would be "too close to call" are electronic voting states?

=========================================================
Todd: Can McCain close?
Don't dismiss the likelihood that this race will tighten

By Chuck Todd
Political Director
NBC News
Wed., Oct. 29, 2008

snip-
First of all, it's hard to imagine this race not tightening. Why? Just take a look at the remaining undecided voters.

These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.

The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?

If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain — as I've argued before — will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote.

What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

more:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27439060?GT1=43001

[maxsolomon]

1. uh-huh

keep carrying the water, chuck.

AND GET A DECENT HAIRCUT FOR CHRISSAKES.

[OmahaBlueDog]

2. Based on the polls, Obama could lose every state oon Chuck's list and win

If Barack wins all the Kerry states (highly probable) and wins Virginia and Iowa (also pretty probable), he wins.

[Schulzz]

3. Must...keep... pushing...horse race!

Even if McCain would win all of these states - what Chuck Todd doesn't mention are the states which are outside the margin of error: VA, CO, IA, NM - he would still lose.

[always_saturday]

4. And just last month he was saying that whoever was ahead in the polls on 10/15 would win.

What a repug tool.

[cyberpj]

8. I remember that too.

But the word is out now that it has to be closing - it seems everyone is repeating it.

[Two Sheds]

5. 70% of the undecideds...

If 6% are undecided, Obama will get almost 2%. Right now, I'd take that.

[cyberpj]

7. I just wish I knew where we could find info on the number of supposed "undecided" at this point.

People keep writing about them - surely somewhere there are figures.

[rockymountaindem]

6. The good thing is we don't need any of the states he mentions

So... I have to question exactly what his point is.

[terrya]

9. With Bush as 20% approval, those people are going to vote for McCain. Yeah, sure, right, whatever.

:eyes:

[Two Sheds]

10. Once again, a guy who is either GOP or a media "horse race" addict

goes on and on about national polls with only a slight nod to the Electoral College.
He doesn't mention Pennsylvania as being too close to call (I wonder why) and he ignores three red states: Colorado (Marist poll Obama up 6 and over 50%), Iowa, and New Mexico (both of which do not appear in any Battleground polls for a good reason). Those three "red" states put Obama over the top. That doesn't sell TV ads, though.

[high density]

11. Give us a break, Chuck

You suck at trying to predict things. If Obama is commanding > 50% of the vote, it doesn't matter how the "undecideds" go.