Road to 270: West Virginia

[ccharles000]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-west-virginia.html

RIDGED, VALLEYED, CULTURALLY-ENCLAVED West Virginia, with five electoral votes, was not supposed to be in play after Barack Obama got waxed there in the primary. Recent polls have shown the race much tighter than expected. There is no McCain ground game in the state, and Obama has a small staff that has worked on banking early votes. Still, McCain expects to win and he should. In the context of a national landslide, West Virginia -- a state that gave its vote to Michael Dukakis in 1988 -- could go blue once again.

What McCain Has Going For Him

No state has less educated voters in the aggregate, terrible voter turnout rates, and Obama has terrible fundraising. "American" ancestry ranks 3d highest in this Appalachian state, and only four states have higher gun ownership rates. Few same-sex households, not many Starbucks, not many Catholics, and a very large percentage of elderly voters. Not many youth voters, and that the state went twice for George Bush helps John McCain's chances. Culturally, the state is extremely resistant to perceived outsiders, and Barack Obama's newness cuts against him heavily in that respect.

What Obama Has Going For Him

Ironically, no state has a higher percentage of registered Democrats than the state George Bush carried twice. No state had worse McCain fundraising, and it's shaded more toward women than men. With 50% of the state identifying as Democrats, it should be a no-brainer. Instead, it will be a shocker if Obama pulls this culturally resistant state off. Unemployment and economic worries loom high here, and when we visited the state two weeks ago we heard that sentiment expressed from some Bush-voting small business owners who planned to vote for Obama. Obama has a better ground operation, and now the state is getting top-of-ticket visits and surrogate like Robert Byrd stumping for Obama in the closing days. Still, beyond the high Democratic partisan identification, Obama has few statistical factors working in his favor.

What To Watch For

The closest House race is Shelley Moore Caputo (incumbent Republican) versus former Byrd aide Anne Barth. Most rank the race likely Republican, somewhere between solid and lean. It didn't make the Republican "Death List," so Republicans aren't worried about it. The closer drama will be the presidential race, which nearly everyone still expects to go to McCain. When we were in the state, Tom Vogel, Obama's State Director, told us to watch Putnam and Berkeley Counties, where if Obama were running anywhere close to even in those Republican strongholds, he'd win the state.

[Samantha]

1. I took that road named 270 some time ago to relocate to a rural area to

raise my child. Eight years later I returned to the DC area, having felt like I had been imprisoned for those years. Yes, my daughter had a wonderful childhood, free from the bad influences that abound here. But it was a terrible sacrifice for me, having been born in the Nation's capital and being a political junkie all my life. There was absolutely no one to talk that could hold a decent conversation on the subject. The town I lived in had zero African-Americans. It was prejudiced and still is. Life there was like being in a time warp that took me back to the 50s and 60s.

Today I see it as a wonderful place to visit, wild and wonderful West Virginia, but I love living 15 miles outside of the capital and enjoying this vibrant, diversified life.

Sam

PS My daughter, having experienced both the rural environment and the big city, now lives in DuPont Circle. But she enjoys the occasional visit back and loves the serenity of the place.

[elleng]

2. Hi, Sam!

My daughter, born (and bread?) in DC, is enjoying WVU tremendously! CERTAINLY NOT typical of the state, but wanted to share!

She misses the diversity of DC (especially our neighborhood,) and is still in touch with DC friends and issues, and I MISS HER, tho I've been known to volunteer to drive up there on some lame excuse!

[Samantha]

4. There are beautiful things about the State of West Virginia

From here in the East, that drive up to 270 when the leaves are turning in the Fall is breathtaking. The air is fresh (where there are no paper mills or coal mines), and the water tastes great. The serenity of the rural areas is the perfect antidote to the pace here in the East. This was my impression of the area until I actually lived there.

The underbelly is not quite so appetizing, but I believe the State might be changing due to an influx of people who have migrated there for various reasons. Many who want to move to Montana but cannot afford to do so, often choose West Virginia instead. Once I made my big move and eventually landed a job, my new boss who had relocated to the area from a big city, told me there were only three things to do for recreation: hunting, bowling, and having sex. Once you have lived in a city like Washington, D.C. or the larger cities in the suburbs, it is just such a culture shock. I still have my place there although it is rented out. I had always thought I would retire there. Having been exposed the health care of that region during the time I actually lived there, I now think it would be the biggest mistake of my life to move there as I grow older. In the small town where I purchased a place, there were no cabs, no ambulances, no police and only a small volunteer fire department.

If a person needs a job, West Virginia is one of the least desirable places to live. Jobs are so scarce, and many of the many business owners do not treat their employees well.

On the other hand, not interested in hunting, bowling or having an affair on my husband, I did join a local woman's volleyball team and for the next eight years, played the hell out of the game. It was tremendous.

And those low, low West Virginia taxes -- you can't beat them. But they are low because of the poverty of most people there and that is exactly why the services we take for granted here in the large cities are just not available there. Crime was almost non-existent, at least not very visible. There are many acres of fields fenced off from public view. When I questioned my mate as to why, he said many people move to that area because it is so desolate, one can buy a lot of land, grow a lot mj and go undetected. Additionally, men who fooled around with other guy's wives and then went hunting in the fall, often did not emerge from the woods. The became "victims" of hunting accidents.

So those were the up and down sides I found.

Sam

[grantcart]

3. k and r