How I see the state of this race (long)

[Godhumor]

I posted this in another forum and figured it was apropos for here, as well.

So, are the national polls tightening? Yes. A few weeks ago Obama was up by almost 9 points and now he has settled at around 6 in aggregate consideration. The meme that has been picked up by people within the media, including Drudge, is that McCain is in the midst of a last minute comeback.

Certainly, McCain and Palin have been overwhelmingly animated in their speeches and have attacked, with mixed degrees of success, Obama as a wealth redistributor, socialist, in league with anti-American figures, and unprepared to lead (Thanks to the opening that Biden gave with the horribly thought out remark on being tested in the first six months). Each of these attacks by itself has shown to be relatively ineffectual, but together, they are making some movement. The question is, will it move enough?

editing the metaphor: To borrow a football metaphor, McCain is down by 14 with a minute left, needs a touchdown, an onside kick recovery, and a touchdown to tie the game and he's going all out to score. Obama is playing prevent defense, willing to give up yardage but causing McCain to waste time, to run out the clock. Obama's cushion was large enough that he is taking the chance that he can give back some of the lead in exchange for trying to not get caught in a gaffe or scandal.

So far, the state polls bear out that Obama's strategy is working. McCain has tightened the race nationally to within 6 points, but there has been very little indication that state polls have been moving in the same way. One theory, and it is a leading one, is that McCain's attacks are solidifying support of conservatives who were initially hesitant or reluctant to voice support for him. As a result, he's gaining the conservative vote but not moving the state polls where there are more moderates (i.e. the battlegrounds). State polls do seems to show this--firm red states have gotten redder.

So McCain finds himself in a position where he needs to take his message to individual states and tailored for each state. Obama has him pinned to the wall on this, as he now has 5 and a half days left to campaign, and Obama will win tonight's and tomorrow's newscycle with his 30 minute special tonight (Whether the pundits like it or hate it, they will be talking about it). Earlier McCain's campaign released three ways to get to 270 next Tuesday:

1 - Win all of Bush's states. This isn't looking very likely, to be honest. Virginia is in high single digits for Obama right now as is Ohio (The past 3 days, Obama has opened a significant lead there). Remember, Kerry finished with 258 EVs in 2004, if either of those states flip to Obama and he carries Kerry's states, Obama wins.

2 - Flip Pennsylvania and win two of the following three: Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Again, Pennsylvania, at worst is a +7 for Obama right now (according to Rasmussen) while most polls have it pegged between 9 and 13 points. Florida may be an easy switch to McCain, but Ohio and Virginia are not. At best, he has to make up two high single digit deficits (Flip PA, win Florida, and win either VA or OH). He has five days to pull this off, and it is likely he cannot split his time in such a way to do so.

3 - Win a bunch of small states to put him over the top. Simply not possible, there's too many EVs tied up in the big battleground states for this to be a viable strategy.

In conclusion, it would be kind to say McCain has an uphill battle. It is still possible, but Obama is in a position to simply run out the clock. I expect next Monday will see the Hail Mary pass, and the chances of those being caught are usually very small.

[On the Road]

1. The Analogy I Would Use is

McCain is more than one TD behind. (Not to quibble or anything.)

I would not be surprised that McCain's attacks have gotten some conservatice fence-sitters off the fence. But as you point out, most of that's happening in red states when he needs it to happen in swing states.

[Godhumor]

2. I agree, actually, I wrote this for a forum that is all-sides political

Down by a touchdown is an easy way to talk about it in mixed company.

[BlooInBloo]

3. He's down a lot more than one score. Sheesh.

[Godhumor]

4. It's a metaphor. But thanks for focusing on that as opposed to where I say McCain's not going to win

Sheesh.

[BlooInBloo]

6. And he's metaphorically down by a lot more than one score. Duh.

[Godhumor]

7. Out of everything I posted, you choose to argue this? Why? Was the fact that I said Obama will win

Not positive enough?

Seriously, this seems like a really odd thing to fixate on, but I'll go change the metaphor for you.

There, changed it to two scores and an onside kick recovery, better?

[BlooInBloo]

8. Because your post plays into the fucking idiotic concerned DUer meme that it's tightening.

[Godhumor]

9. Bullshit. You're looking for anything that can remotely be interpreted that way and pouncing on it

While ignoring everything else that was written.

[Godhumor]

10. And do you know why I chose a touchdown? The RCP aggregate has him up by 6 points

Which is the score of a touchdown. So please stop being offended, and understand that I said Obama will win.

[XemaSab]

5. Rachel Maddow's football metaphor yesterday was brilliant

Utah is at one end of the field, DC is at the other end, and states like Florida and Ohio are in the middle. The fact that the game is being played over in the area of North Carolina and Indiana indicates that Obama's controlling the game, and it would take a huge push by McCain to get the play over to areas like Michigan and New Mexico. This late in the game, it's unlikely to happen.