OK, I'm calling you out, worrywarts: why is Obama's 30 minute spot such a BAD idea?

[Bicoastal]

Judging by the poll in another thread, there are at least a couple here who think it's going to hurt Obama in the polls. I won't ask for blind faith in our candidate, but I have to know what your rationale is for doubting this approach: Obama has reaped the benefits of every high profile media appearance he's made in the last year. For example: a lot of people probably thought his "A More Perfect Union" speech was a bad idea, and it practically saved his campaign. A lot of people accused him of being extravagant (the word they used in a Politico article today) in Berlin and the Mile High Stadium; still, in both cases his numbers and popularity shot up, proving the naysayers wrong once again.

So, for lack of a better way to phrase this...what's your deal?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Because it's a Rovian trap.

Duh.

[kimmerspixelated]

48. You're kidding, right?

I didn't see the use of the sarcasm doohickey.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. It might hurt McCain!

:cry:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

39. LOL!

[thoughtcrime1984]

3. It's a great idea, and will gain him a percentage point nationally

which is huge. F the media, they are blatant Republican shills, with the exception of 3 or 4 people amongst ALL of the networks. Money, money, money. Big money mass media needs the luxuries afforded them by Repulican controlled gov't.

[heliarc]

4. Before the DVD release in papers I thought it was a bad idea...

Now that we're seeing more and more of the bullshit rise to the surface, I think its the right way to slay this freaking dragon already.

Bring it on, Obama. I do hope that public financing and FCC regulations for this sort of thing are improved, but for now, let's just win this thing.

[Benhurst]

8. Good point.

[BlooInBloo]

5. Because everything Obama does is wrong to them....

No matter how many times they're proven wrong, they still don't believe anything Obama does can work.

It's just the way they are.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

6. I Had Been Worried When I First Heard Of It, But I'm Confident Now.

The worry stems from the thought of people thinking it grandiose and over the top, that it's all about money, and that it would turn them off to him rather than turn them on to him. I still think it will have that affect on some.

But I'm far more confident now, because if it's one thing I've learned about Obama is that when you tune into him, he sucks you in. You can't help but be impressed and feel good by the time he's done. I'm confident that many more will be inspired tonight than turned off, and that people will see how amazing of a president he will be.

But I can totally understand the concerns of some. If all was left alone right now, Obama would likely win handily. But something as grandiose and attention getting as tonight, can carry a lot of gravity with it. What that means is that it has the ability to either boost him up significantly or knock him down significantly. It is also much easier for him to fall in the polls right now than to gain, so that has to be taken into consideration as well. And though I'm more than confident his spot tonight is going to be amazing and only help, I can readily understand why some would be nervous; given the gravity of the situation.

[progressivebydesign]

7. because the republican talking point today said so.. and they can't think for themselves.

Frankly, I'm getting pretty damn sick of some people on DU this week.. they're acting like m.f. republicans.

[VeraAgnes]

9. it is not......The GOP is desperately

trying to poison the waters before it airs.

[Demi_Babe]

10. how can you judge something you have not seen...I'll tell you my opinion at 9pm

[Bicoastal]

11. I'm just trying to figure out if/why morale is so low around here.

Must be residue from yesterday's Gallup poll.

[OmahaBlueDog]

20. Many of us are terrified he'll blow it/it'll be stolen

The fact is we should be thrilled he's up 5 or more points with money to burn in the home stretch.

[Essene]

33. it's not a morale issue whatsoever

it seems like a very expensive, very high profile, very risky move... without any clear gains available.

it's like being in the victory lap of a marathon and deciding to take your clothes off and to start doing somersaults when you have sore ankle.

i just dont see the damn point of it. lol

the ONLY thing i can see being garnered from it is to somehow make it so darn provocative and engaging that EVERYBODY is talking about it for the rest of the week... and it effectively drives the discussion in the media for days.

it's a big risk because the media might find the reaction to the basic idea of a 30 min commercial more compelling of a story than the content, and we can be sure the opponents will make that the issue.

[damonm]

36. NOT doing it is the risk.

Sitting back and running out the clock is a loser's game.
Taking it to your opponent, playing offense, seizing the initiative in the conversation, and FINISHING your opponent - that's how you win. That's what this is about.

[Essene]

41. He is WAY AHEAD. His ground game is brilliant. Americans dont like TV being interrupted, ok? =D

if it can help with getting out the vote, then awesome...

if it can suck the air out of the room and force pundits and americans to talk about the content for a couple days, then awesome...

if it's just going to be a big infomercial about obama's policies, there will be a predictable wave of jokes, backlash, etc.

[damonm]

47. Those first 2 are the PRECISE reasons to do this.

McSame is on the ropes - this will finish him.
We SHOULD be way ahead on points, but a KO will assure the win. After what the GOP has put this country through, we need to trounce them, and trounce them HARD.

We don't disagree on ends - only on means.

[Essene]

55. i hope it IS a KO blow. Understand that im 99.9999999% sure he will win.

I think the DU-crowd has been constantly dreaming of some masterful KO blow and the only one that matters is the EV count.

im like 99.999999999999999% sure he's going to win.

im simply saying i dont see this as a huge gain, and it risks giving his opponent fodder when they are already out of fuel.

[damonm]

34. Part of it is...

Democrats are used to being let down/losing. Just like my beloved Raiders, they've developed a "loser's mindset". They EXPECT to lose; even if they're ahead, they figure they'll find SOME way to blow it.
That's my 2 cents.

[Essene]

38. it's not a "loser mindset" to consider the risk vs benefits

i think his campaign has been nearly perfect.

i think he's going to win.

i dont see ANY reason to be "spamming" the TV primetime with a 30 minute friggin commercial. lol

i dont care how good it is, the risk is a backlash against the raw arrogance and sense of invasion people have to stuff like that.

what's gained?
what's the risk?

my theory is they bought this time as a back-up emergency response plan for when the race might tighten.

now it's just needless filler.

if this thing is some kind of historic content that absolutely blows away any jokes about it being a 30 minute infomercial.

if it is so amazing that it sucks the air out of all the other pundit talking points... and causes america to discuss the CONTENT for a couple days... then i'll be happy.

[damonm]

49. So, if you think his campaign has been "nearly perfect",

why lose faith now? They've hit all the right notes so far - what gives you the idea they'll suddenly do something foolish and blow it all to hell at the 11th hour?

THIS is the losing mindset I spoke of. The fear that "something bad will happen and we'll lose", despite all evidence to the contrary, is characteristic of losing organizations. It's a mindset the Obama campaign has been seemingly free of - this is why they're winning, and are going to win this going away. They're being smarter than you give them credit for.

[Essene]

53. *sigh* faith isnt the same as BLIND AND UNWAVERING faith =D

everybody makes mistakes.

im merely saying i dont see how the benefits outweight the risks.

feels like overkill compared to just another massive ad blitz.

[damonm]

60. This is not "blind and unwavering".

This is empirical, backed-up-by-available-data faith. (as much of an oxymoron as that sounds...)

Their strong tendency has been to make the right move despite all our second-guessing (and I'm as guilty as any of this - I had grave doubts about the whole Greek column thing), and I see it as a bigger leap at this point to assume it's a wrong move.

I choose to assume, given their track record to date, that the Obama campaign is making the right call.
You choose to assume the campaign is taking an unnecessary risk which could backfire.

By this time tomorrow, we'll see who's correct.

[Connie_Corleone]

12. It was the same thing regarding the convention speech set.

Some people were having a fit over it, demanding Obama's campaign to change the design. Look how that turned out.

I'll trust the campaign.

[BR_Parkway]

13. Well cause he's doing so lousy at every single otherr thing in this

campaign.

1st black man to win the nomination
To be up 10 points during the final week
Going up against both the GOP and the Clinton machine at the same time
Able to know exactly what to say at exactly the right time
able to build the biggest small donor network in history
able to build huge base out of previously unregistered voters
able to get Republicans to vote for him and endorse him

yeah, obviously the man doesn't have the first freaking clue what he's doing and needs us to 2nd guess his every move.

:sarcasm:

It really is a miracle that he's ahead at this point, especially with such nervous nellie supporters.

[kimmerspixelated]

50. Nailhitter!

[vaberella]

14. Not mine, I'm very supportive of the idea. I can't wait to watch. n/t

[blm]

15. It's a GREAT idea, and I wanted both Gore and Kerry to do it in 2000 and 2004 once it was apparent

the corporate media was intent on protecting Bush, no matter what.

And it all comes down to money - which is why Kerry advised Obama early on to forego the federal campaign money.

[Essene]

31. what's so great? what is gained? seriously, what do you really expect from this?

I dont see what's gained.

[blm]

51. Having the last word about YOURSELF. The corporate media has proved it isn't interested in truth

and relaying the truth to the American people.

[damonm]

56. What is gained:

I don't know about you, but I still hear a lot of "I don't know much about him" whining.
After tonight, this excuse is GONE. Someone doesn't know about him ater this, it's their own stupid fault. Every time people see the guy, they like him better. This is a BIG shot for people to see him and hear him. This is his shot at going OVER 50%; he's aiming for a mandate that the Rethuigs can only deny at the risk of looking even more foolish than they already do.
THAT is the gain.

[OmahaBlueDog]

16. OK, I'll bite

1. It seems to me like a waste of campaign money that could be better spent on shorter segments in battle ground markets. Do you actually watch a 30 minute infomercial for anything? I sure as Hell don't.
2. Instead of eliminating the pre-game for the World Series, I'd have bought every damn spot, and sponsored the trip to the bullpen, the strike zone replays, the area behind home plate, etc. I'd have also bought Monday and Sunday football heavily, and NASCAR.
3. This seems like something that will make for comic fodder, bith by McSame and by commedians
4. His current strategy is working so well -- why stray from it?

[Bicoastal]

18. He's not delaying the World Series by one minute.

There will be no pre-game coverage tonight, but that's about it.

[OmahaBlueDog]

19. I'll concede that point (and I edited accordingly), but I stand by the rest of my statements

30 minute ads don't fare well in a 30 second attention span culture.

[stray cat]

17. Its a good idea. My question is how can we know Obama wins before people vote?

for those who are absolutely postive there is no chance McCain could possibly win.

[cynatnite]

21. My husband thinks it's overkill...

He's concerned that the public will find it too much. I told him I don't think it'd hurt him at all. Not sure if it'll help, but it defintely won't hurt.

[Mz Pip]

35. I sort of agree

but I don't think he'll be hurt by it. People who don't want to watch won't and people who do want to watch will be impressed.

I wish he's saved his money for his re-election campaign.

[Danger Mouse]

22. They're not happy if there's not something to panic about.

It's just like Hudson.

[yodoobo]

23. It'll be fine. Heck I wish they had an all Obama channel

Just turn there when you get sick of BS and right wing crap on other channels.

[damonm]

62. On DISH network, they do...

Channel 73.

[dave29]

24. because he might unveil an exciting new food processor instead of ask for votes!

OH NOS!

[Essene]

25. It seems self-absorbed and serves no clear purpose - indeed, it's overkill during prime TV prime

Obama's ahead... and i dont see what's gained by it at all.

PEOPLE SOMETIMES WANT TO JUST MINDLESSLY WATCH THEIR TV SHOWS

There were several prime-time appearances by Bush that were just completely self-absorbed and caused backlash, imo.

I dont see what's gained by a 30 minute infomercial during prime time.

Regardless of the quality, many people (independents) will dislike the approach. They've already been bombarded with non-stop stuff from all sides. This will be seen as simply one big political ad by a self-important politician... by many.

Even if it's great content, i dont see how it will do much more than to get people talking about it's existence rather than the content.

[Bicoastal]

28. Weren't you the one who went overboard defending Ashley Todd last week?

I think you freak out too much. The "infomercial" is not on Obama, it's mostly on his economic plan.

[Essene]

29. i never defended her... but since you want to make this personal... *sigh*

folks here can be just as nasty as "them."

that was my point.

and i stand by what i said about this infomercial. it's going to be seen as excessive and i dont see what's gained from it.

i hope im wrong.

and i will never jump down the throat of a woman claiming to be assaulted

even if im skeptical about her story.

some of the folks on DU were rabid, hateful and nasty... in ways having little to do with honest skepticism.

[Bicoastal]

30. OK, point taken--BUT

I still think you're overreacting--Obama's team never does anything for no reason. It HAS a purpose--to set the record straight on Obama's Tax plan and negate the entire "spreading the wealth" claim. You just wait...

[Essene]

32. i hope so... but i honestly do not see what is gained by this.

the only thing i can imagine being gained is that they can somehow set the terms of the discussion for the last 5 days.

but that would require something provocative and so powerful that it not only keeps people watching, but gets them talking about the content for several days... and gets people wanting to have seen it if they missed it, etc.

im talking "joe the plumber" times 10... a complete tsunami of the discussion until monday or tuesday.

i have a hard time imagining that.

[Bicoastal]

37. Naw, this will get us to Saturday easily...

...and the last couple of days are a wash. Most people don't watch much news over the weekend, and the final Monday is too late for any game changers.

He knows what he's doing.

[Essene]

43. if folks talk about the content vs the fact that TV got interrupted by a politician for 30 mins..

yes.

if it can help get out the vote. if it can get people focused on the content. etc.

i think obama's made a tiny handful of mistakes this entire campaign, the biggest being that "spread the wealth" slip up.

things are moving his way... i just dont see the point taking such a huge, highly publicized risk.

[yodermon]

26. It has to be a good *show*. People tune in at 8 pm weeknights to be *entertained*.

All I mean by this is that it really can't just be the commercials he's been running, or his speeches/talking points writ large. There has to be some kind of *hook* that's memorable and attention grabbing. Otherwise it will just be so much fluff.

This can be perceived by many of us armchair campaigners as risky.

I personally have faith in Obama to knock it out of the park. :thumbsup:

[Essene]

44. yes... the content has to drown out the commentary on its mere existence

and i think you are right about a "hook."

it cant be a normal political ad.

it has to be something so dramatic and unexpected that folks are talking about it for days. it has to force the pundits to discuss THE CONTENT, and not just that he bought a 30 minute block on prime time (which is what the GOP types wnat to focus on).

[applegrove]

27. What time is that speech on by the way?

[BlooInBloo]

40. Because they're SOOOOO much smarter than Obama.

[RememberWellstone]

42. Overexposure?

I think if he stays on the stump in cities that need him, he will do more to help the cause.

This might seem like "look at me" too much..maybe if he had a stage full of supporting cast?

[Whisp]

45. Obama just does not fuck up.

It's not in his nature.

Some take longer than others to accept that. ;)

[dugaresa]

46. In a nation full of non-reading TV rooted couch potatoes..it is a great idea

People don't like to read, (I am not one of those people...but I encounter a lot of them daily)

30 minutes for him to dispel the rumors, and define who he is and to basically close the deal...is far better than a million pieces of junk mail.

There are McCainiacs that will tune in out of curiousity...and it may convert some...

The Believers will tune in and love it.

The loathsome "undecided" voters will tune only if they can decide on what chair to sit in..or perhaps what room to view it in, or perhaps they may or may not have to use the bathroom...they will get back to us when the decide..

[kimmerspixelated]

52. That's right!

So all I need to know is, when shall I tune in??

GOBAMA!!!!

[Starlight]

57. I totally agree. It's basically a captive audience of low information voters.

[TheKentuckian]

54. He's not playing four corners and trying to sit on a lead

This gives him a chance to bring his message unfiltered to the millions that don't spend their days watching cable news and those who haven't been to a rally. Of course the Repuliscum will attack him for doing it, because they will attack him NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES OR DOESN'T DO.

What's the purpose? Playing to win folks. That's what winners do. Losers are afraid to make moves and have no tolerance for risk which leads to clinging to the status quo.
We have the lead, so there's no need for taking a lot of chances but playing prevent defense, as football fans have come to realize carries its own risks.

Again, I'm glad Obama can take an unfiltered message to the American people and affirm his case to a very broad audience that has in many cases been flooded with a tremendous amount of unanswered misinformation and gives him a chance to again appear Presidential, with command of the bully pulpit.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

58. Its gonna rock!!!

Ross Perot did the same thing as an independant in 1992 and got 18% or so on election day. Those 30 min info spots work on voters. He will have the chance to explain his plan "1 more time" to voters. Think about it. Its like a 4th debate without and opponent!!! Its a WIN-WIN. He is so confident that his agenda will be the voter's agenda that he is willing to do this. I say he get a boost in the polls.

Also he gets a chance to out distance and drown out Joe the plumber, hateful Rupuke crowds, and other nonsense the media likes to focus on. Obama will focus on what matters to voters tonight!!!! ITS ALL GOOD!!! :)

[ecstatic]

59. My worry is that it could be a game changer--in either direction

He is already winning. It could piss the ignorant undecideds off.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

61. You could be right.

However he is a Harvard educated Lawyer. Look at this as his "closing argument" to the court. There is a risk but its a risk he is willing to take. I'm with him! I think he can do it. He has yet to mess up. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. :)

[Life Long Dem]

63. Your the only one I saw saying it's a bad idea.

:shrug: