On November 1, 2004, Bush was getting his butt kicked

[ProSense]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

The election was stolen. For those of you trying to prove Bush won a fair election, see Ohio 2004.

[kick-ass-bob]

1. And on Nov 2, it was all even.

That's why E-V.com is not a reliable source.

[Bicoastal]

15. Sure it is--if you notice, they didn't average out polls back then.

Now they do. QED.

[kick-ass-bob]

21. they don't average all the polls - nowhere close.

They average the ones that are released on the same day.

= crapshoot.

538.com is much more reliable, but less easy to see the latest polls.

[Bicoastal]

24. OK, but you'll at least concede that they're more accurate now than they used to be...

...their findings tend to match 538.com pretty closely.

[kick-ass-bob]

26. That is true.

But they do bounce around a bit more than 538.

I look at 538 to check the trend (because it's harder to find the latest polls, and e-v to see what's up lately.

:thumbsup:

[Zynx]

39. When they averaged polls at RCP, you know what? Kerry lost.

[...of J.Temperance]

2. Something odd happened in Ohio, I remember that Kerry was

Leading by 9% in afternoon exit polling....and then W got Ohio, Kenneth Blackwell must have added his special potion to the Diebold machines.

And of course I never forget Diebold CEO Wally O'Dell writing to the RNC promising to "deliver Ohio's electoral votes to Bush/Cheney"

I mean NO conflict of interest there huh? :sarcasm:

[rvablue]

8. I remember reading

that Bush and Cheney stoppped at an aiport hangar in Ohio on Election Day and met with Kenneth Blackwell.

Do you remember reading this....it came out several days/a week or so after the election and it was just kind of brushed over by the MSM.

[blm]

12. another major story the media ignored, but showed up later in Woodward's book....

>>>>>>

Did Carville Tip Bush Off to Kerry Strategy (Woodward)
By M.J. Rosenberg - October 7, 2006, 9:11AM

I just came across a troubling incident that Bob Woodward reports in his new book. Very troubling.

On page 344, Woodward describes the doings at the White House in the early morning hours of Wednesday, the day after the '04 election.

Apparently, Kerry had decided not to concede. There were 250,000 outstanding ballots in Ohio.

So Kerry decides to fight. In fact, he considers going to Ohio to camp out with his voters until there is a recount. This is the last thing the White House needs, especially after Florida 2000.

So what happened?

James Carville gets on the phone with his wife, Mary Matalin, who is at the White House with Bush.

"Carville told her he had some inside news. The Kerry campaign was going to challenge the provisional ballots in Ohio -- perhaps up to 250,000 of them. 'I don't agree with it, Carville said. I'm just telling you that's what they're talking about.'

"Matalin went to Cheney to report...You better tell the President Cheney told her."

Matalin does, advising Bush that "somebody in authority needed to get in touch with J. Kenneth Blackwell, the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio who would be in charge of any challenge to the provisional votes." An SOS goes out to Blackwell.
>>>>>>

[iceman66]

16. I do remember that, but I think it was just Bush

it was his last stop at the end of the campaign before returning to the White House.

[BlueIdaho]

3. The best way to prevent a repeat...

Overwhelming numbers at the polls makes it nearly impossible to steal an election. Want to avoid a repeat of Ohio or Florida? GET OUT OUR VOTE! Work like the devil and forget about the polls, the pundits, and the propaganda - its now or never gang - this election IS IN OUR HANDS starting TODAY!

YES WE CAN

[scheming daemons]

4. Your own link proves you wrong, when you look closer

2004:

"Strong Kerry" = 91

"Strong Bush" = 172


2008:

"Strong Obama" = 264

"Strong McCain" = 118



The "Barely" and "Weak" states for Kerry made up the bulk of his lead.


I'm not saying there weren't shenanigans in Ohio in 2004.... I'm saying that most of the polls in 2004, including in Ohio, showed Bush ahead. Anybody who had confidence in a Kerry win in 2004 was not being realistic.

[ProSense]

22. No the link doesn't prove me wrong.

You're spin is BS. If the GOP had confidence in the polls they would not have mounted such a large vote suppression drive and wide scale election fraud.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The problem with the EC site in 2004...

They never averaged the polls. They just went with the most recent, which happened to show Kerry up in Florida & Ohio. However, if you had ventured over to RCP in 2004 and looked at the state averages, you would have seen this:



Pretty accurate, except for Wisconsin.

Their average of polls showed:

FL: Bush + .6
OH: Bush + 2.1

[Bicoastal]

EXACTLY: electoral-vote back then was not electoral-vote now.

Besides, I think "getting his butt kicked" is a HUGE exaggeration. He was winning by one or two states--big whoop. Obama's been in the mid-300's for a month.

[ProSense]

28. The polls don't account for a lot.

including vote suppression.

Florida: African-American (12%)
Bush 13% (+6 from 2000)
Kerry 86%

Ohio: African-American (10%)
Bush 16% (+7 from 2000)
Kerry 84%

National: African-American (11%)
Bush 11% (+2 from 2000)
Kerry 88%

Now can someone explain how Bush's percentages among African Americans climbed by 6 percent in Florida and 7 percent in Ohio, indicating that African-American turnout was up. Yet 650,000 African Americans registered in Florida, but failed to vote?

In 2000, Al Gore got 500,000 votes more than George Bush

In 2004, John Kerry got 8 million more votes than Al Gore.

Somehow, George Bush, after serving four failed years in office and being exposed as a liar, managed to reverse his fortunes by adding 11.5 million votes to his 2000 totals.

So, no, I don't believe Bush won a fair election.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. All I'm saying is that Bush was predicted to win both states.

The polls had him as favored, Intrade was giving both states to him and he won both states.

He wasn't getting his butt kicked like you imply. The election was coming down to either Ohio or Florida and we all knew it. This election will not. Those states will just be the icing on the cake.

[ProSense]

34. The comment specified a date. Still,

the polls were all over the place, and there are too many questions about the 2004 results.

This is a different time, and Obama is clearly ahead of McCain.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

6. Any Rational Person Involved At That Time Knows Damn Well Bush Wasn't Getting His 'Butt Kicked'.

Not sure what alternate dimension you might've been in at the time to make such a claim.

Having that said; the hijinxs in Ohio most definitely cost us the election.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

7. My father (who is a Repuke) told me that Kerry led Bush by 15 points in PA in 2004 and only won by 2

I haven't checked whether that is true or not, but it just means we have to work work work.



Don't take ANYTHING for granted.


Tell your neighbors and friends (as long as they are Dems) to get out and vote.



ESPECIALLY if you live in a swing state.




I am going to make a thread next Sunday reminding all of us here to not only vote, but encourage your friends and neighbors to do the same (only if they are Dem).



I believe we will win, but I don't believe it's gonna be a landslide.



ALL OF US MUST MAKE SURE WE TELL OUR DEM FRIENDS AROUND US TO VOTE.

[Bicoastal]

9. TOTAL bullshit. He was up by anywhere from tied to 4 in Gallup and Zogby...

...and the day before, SurveyUSA had him up by only 1.

But hey, if your Dad wants to remember it this way, be my guess.

[scheming daemons]

11. The final polls in PA had Kerry up by 1 to 4 points..... Your dad is mistaken

[Brotherjohn]

10. Besides the valid points others make above, I don't see what you see on E-V.com. On this day in 2004

... it was Kerry 236 - Bush 281

That's what you see when you click the "This day on 2004" link on Electoral-vote.com.

EDIT: Okay, sorry. You said "on Nov. 1, 2004"... but as others here have already pointed out, EV.com back then just took the most recent poll. And many of the states (especially ones Kerry had a "lead" in) were very close. So they waffled a lot day to day.

2004: ~80-90 "Strong" Kerry.
2008: 264 "Strong" Obama.

That says it all.

Obama curently leads in 7 "close" states by 0-10% (VA, OH, FL, NC, IN, CO, NV). Give EVERY tie to McCain. Give EVERY "Barely" or "Weak" McCain states to McCain. Even if you do that, Obama only needs to win ONE of 7 those states he's currently ahead by 10 or less in, and he wins the WH.

The reality is, those states are going to break either way... some McCain, some Obama. But most ones that Obama is ahead in will probably break to him, and he'll win in a landslide.

[BlooInBloo]

13. You fail.

[ProSense]

25. No

facts

[iceman66]

14. A lot of revisionist history here

A lot of us expected Kerry to win in 2004. He won all 3 debates and the polls were pretty neck and neck right up until election day. Then of course there was the fiasco with the exit polls.

Of course Obama is doing a lot better relatively speaking, but after three stolen elections (counting the Senate races in 2002) it is hard not to be apprehensive!

[scheming daemons]

17. He wasn't "neck and neck"..... he was behind in every tracking poll at this point in '04

He was closer to Bush than McCain is to Obama..... but he wasn't "neck and neck".

[iceman66]

30. Come on.

I remember election night '04 clearly.

Even BUSH didn't think he was going to win until Karl told him to cheer up!

[scheming daemons]

31. You are "remembering" early exit polls on election night... but the day before, the tracking polls

had him all behind... by about 2 to 5 points.


The early tracking polls on election day were flawed because they didn't take into account the voters from late in the day.... the ones who voted after work.

[iceman66]

37. or they didn't take into account the "Diebold Effect"

[budkin]

18. Worst. Night. Ever.

Way worse than when the Supreme Court handed Bush the presidency because we didn't really understand how much damage Bush would really cause back then.

[WI_DEM]

19. Actually somebody the other day showed that final polls favored Bush slightly in '04

[Alexander]

20. Notice how Kerry brought Virginia and Colorado close to toss-ups...

This is particularly interesting considering Obama will probably win both of these states this year.

[Dark]

23. He wasn't kicking anyone's but. He was barely ahead in the battleground states.

a 1-2 percentage point lead doesn't guarantee the state going for your side.

Oh, and did you check out the map from the day before? Ohio was weak repub.



Florida was the only reason he was winning, and he was two points away from Bush.

[stray cat]

27. Regardless Bush became president - for those who are confident Obama has already won

[ProSense]

29. See that's the problem:

trying to equate confidence in the candidate with possible fraud on GOP's part.

[cali]

33. what revisionist selecti ve garbage

the fact is that bush led kerry in poll after poll in October. And you know it.

[ProSense]

36. Are you questioning the data at the link?

Selective garbage is chiming in support for Bush when in fact the GOP suppressed the vote in Ohio and engaged in election fraud in 2004.

If you don't believe that true, that's your prerogative.

[Generator]

35. Yeah we know and Bin Laden the hand puppet

made a last minute pop up. I don't think "they" want McCain to win. Never did. So it's different. But Obama is the best candidate that the Dems have ever had. I think that is not EVEN hyperbole. So if he doesn't win I will kiss this fucking shithole of a country goodbye. OH WAIT I already did that four years ago when lies propaganda and not letting BLACK FOLKS vote or their vote be counted got Bush another election. Redemeption anyone? I'm hoping.

And anybody that thinks Bush won anything fair and square ever can kiss my ass and rot in hell. The memories of four years ago haven't eased a bit!

[skipos]

38. How did it look on Nov 2? How did all the national polls look like on Nov 2? nt

[theothersnippywshrub]

40. Links.

With Nader.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Without Nader.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html