Interesting Thing About Gallup and Rasmussen "Tightening," Obama Is Not Losing Support...

[Median Democrat]

Obama's support whether it is on Real Clear Politics, Gallup or Rasmussen appears to be very steady at about 50%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

What is changing is McCain's support:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

/snip

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

/snip

Obama has gone pretty positive, while McCain is still attacking Obama, but at least discussing the economy and attacking Bush of all things. Also, the MSM is not really covering Biden's attacks on McCain, except when Biden makes a misstatement. My explanation of why Obama has stayed relatively positive is the fear that negative campaigns depress voter turnout, so he wants to keep up the hope so people vote. If Obama goes purely negative, voter turnout goes down. In contrast, for McCain, he does not mind a cesspool style of politics, because a low voter turnouot works to his advantage.

The problem I see is that the MSM is not really analyzing or covering Obama's efforts to note the similarities between McCain and Bush's tax plans. Thus, while McCain gets brownie points for attacking Bush, the MSM does not cover this. The battleground states in which Obama is holding his leads are remaining the same, because Obama is running ads that hit these similarities, but in non-battleground states that do not get ads, there is no such focus on the similarities between McCain and Bush.

So, my armchair analysis is that Obama needs to hit McCain's policies and put McCain on the defensive regarding his tax policies. Basically, if the Bush tax cuts are so great, why is the economy is such a mess?

[On the Road]

1. I Think McCain's "Socialist" Rhetoric

is having an impact with a certain segment of voters -- getting them scared and off the fence. It may result in a small gain in the polls, but I doubt it will change the minds of many Obama supporter or influence the outcome.