10/29 - 6 days to go. A look at the state polls, what is affecting them, and how they can change

[Ian_rd]

October 29, 2008
Current poll numbers from Pollster.com
Days Remaining: 6


Candidate - Electoral Votes
Obama-Strong - 272
Obama-Leaning - 39
Obama Total - 311

McCain-Strong - 123
McCain-Leaning - 19
McCain Total - 142

Toss-Up - 85

Current Toss-Ups (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage/Deficit
Montana (3) -3.4
North Dakota (3) 3.6
Missouri (11) 1.8
Indiana (11) -1.1
North Carolina (15) 1.9
Georgia (15) -2.6
Florida (27) 2.8

Current Obama-Leaning (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage
Nevada (9) 4.7
Colorado (9) 6.6
New Mexico (5) 6.5
Ohio (20) 4.4

Current McCain-Leaning (Electoral Votes) McCain Advantage
South Dakota (3) 7.5
Arizona (15) 7.2
Mississippi (6) 7


Significant recent changes
- Obama and McCain trade gains and losses in the Toss-Ups.
- Obama gains in his own territory while McCain slips in his own territory.
- Mississippi - WTF? - slips from McCain-Strong to McCain-Leaning.
- Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Obama-Leaning.
- New Hampshire joins the ranks of Obama-Strong, putting his Strong states above the 270 threshold.


Scenarios
(Based on current numbers) - 270 needed to win.

McCain wins all McCain-Strong and McCain-Leaning, plus all Toss-Ups.
Obama - 311
McCain - 227

Even better: McCain wins all McCain states, all Toss-Ups and all Obama-Leaning.
Obama - 272
McCain - 266

This is the first time Pollster has registered the result that Obama needs only his Strong states to win. Thank you, New Hampshire. Welcome home.


Battleground Analysis
When analyzing the battleground, I've taken each candidate's poll numbers in each contested state and weighted them with each state's electoral strength (because a 5-point lead in Florida is worth more than a 5-point lead in New Hampshire, for example).

Getting to the results, I'm concerned less about the poll numbers in all the Toss-Ups, and more concerned about what needs to happen for McCain to gain the advantage. As shown above, Obama can lose in all the Toss-Up states and still win. Therefore, McCain needs to take the fight into Obama's territory.

Obama-Leaning States Only.
Obama - 50.2%
McCain - 45%

And even if McCain manages to win in all the Toss-Ups and close this 5-point gap in a spectacular comeback, Obama still wins by two electoral votes.

What about Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania appears to be the only state where McCain is campaigning where Obama is considered Strong. Otherwise, his campaign seems focused in the states that Obama can afford to lose. It's another hail-mary pass by McCain as he can clearly not win by simply trying to keep what he has and fight in the Toss-Ups.

If he manages to flip Pennsylvania, Obama would need to make-up 19 electoral votes within Obama-Leaning and Toss-Up states. Ohio alone could do it for him. But beyond that it becomes a math game of which states combine to a sum of 19.

What about GOP voter suppression?
There is frequent speculation about how much of an advantage McCain will have from GOP voter-suppression operations. If the above numbers are correct, and they hold until Election Day, the following scenarios illustrate the results.

GOP vote suppression is worth 7 points (in every Toss-Up and Obama-Leaning State): Obama Wins

GOP vote suppression is worth 8 points (in every Toss-Up and Obama-Leaning State): McCain Wins

The theft-threshold has risen by 1 point since two days ago. Eight points is a hell of a lot to steal, even for professional thieves.


Interpretation
The above numbers by now fully reflect any damage done by Sarah Palin's elitist shopping spree and Ashley Todd's Emo's for McCain media blitz. Therefore, McCain should gain on Obama by at least a little from here on out. The national polls are showing as much, which should start being reflected in the state polls in two or three days.

McCain's gains can be attributed to the right-wing media's full-court press for a McCain victory. Their smears and rhetoric have reach a Goebbels level. Fox News is devoting all of its domestic news resources to painting Obama as a socialist-marxist-terrorist-radical, using every word they can think of to appeal to any given voter's fears. The GOP itself is now running ads preemptively accusing Barack Obama of stealing the election in Ohio. And right wing radio is characterizing an Obama win as nothing short of an "end to freedom."

Obama's 30-minute ad tonight should serve as a counter-measure to this mighty Wurlitzer of fear as it will allow him to go around the pundits and speak directly to a national audience (I don't even want to think about how expensive this is).

But that's the side-effect of using fear to manipulate the public. Simple human nature results in diminishing returns. After each little scare, the target audience is just a little less prone to fear. And therefore, to achieve the same results again, the Republicans have to come up with even scarier tactics.

Since 9-11, we've seen the Republican playbook go from "the Democrats will not be as aggressive as us in the War on Terror" in 2002, to "the Democrats want to surrender to the terrorists" in 2004, to "if the Democrats win, terrorists will come to our country and kill us" in 2006, to what we have now: "Our political opponent is himself a terrorist!"

The fear rhetoric is now so strong, that about the only thing left to see on Fox News is the accusation that if Barack Obama wins, he will personally come to your house to rape and kill you.

McCain's advantages
- Voter suppression.
- Fear.
- Fox News.
- Racism.

Obama's advantages
- Apparent awareness and response to voter suppression.
- A terror-weary public.
- A lead among stabilizing polls.
- Sarah Palin.
- A public and media less prone to the same, tired Republican bullshit.
- The best goddamn campaign I've ever seen.

[phrigndumass]

1. Welcome home NH, indeed!

Another great analysis. Thanks! Recommended ...

:hi:

[remember2000forever]

2. That Was Excellent And Very Reality Based

[tosh]

3. Yes, we can!

[MoJoWorkin]

4. Thank you for a very logical, rational explanation of the numbers.

We all are holding our breath, but I am so sick of the irrational fear.

.....and I am usually very pessimistic.

I REFUSE to allow myself that emotion THIS TIME!

I will be helping as much as I can with GOTV---I suggest all hand-wringers do the same.