Can someone explain to me why racist Pennsylvanians would NOT show up on polls?

[Bicoastal]

We've been through this over and over again, but I can't understand what it is that make some people so positive that we're going to lose the Keystone State, or at best, win it very narrowly. Even Ed Rendell seems to think there's room for concern, but mathematically I'm just not seeing it--unless you have to account for a MASSIVE discrepancy throughout the entire electoral map. True, McCain and Palin have been campaigning all through the center of the state, but all they've succeeded in doing is moving Obama's total from 11% down to 9%, according to Nate Silver. NO ELECTORAL MAP I'VE SEEN AT ANY SOURCE HAS PENNSYLVANIA AS ANYTHING BUT BLUE!

So where does this jittery feeling come in? 9% of Pennsylvania voters is a fucking lot of people, and they're not just going to blow away. Don't give me the same old "all my relatives in Central Penn are Klan members," because that's anecdotal. And don't give me Kerry's narrow win there in '04--every pre-election poll showed him beating Bush by only a small margin four years ago. We, on the other hand, have a large margin with only 6 days to go. What the fuck is going on here, and why shouldn't we believe in a Pennsylvania victory?

[stolivodka]

1. Well, there's the dreaded "Bradley Effect"..

..that the Repukes are praying for. That, or another attack by bin Laden. Real pro-American folks, those guys. :sarcasm:

[pnwmom]

5. Yeah, sure, all the racists are so ashamed of themselves they'll pretend

to be voting for the black guy.

:shrug:

[justiceischeap]

2. I lived in PA for 18 years and this is my take on it

When you look at the polls of likely/registered voters some, what Rendell refers to as soft Dems will show up. Those soft Dems, according to Rendell are starting to buy the "spread the wealth" bullshit and they can also be racist. Are the polls somehow factoring them OUT? I don't know. My best friends mom, whom I had no idea was racist, told me over Labor Day weekend, she'd never vote for a black man. She's a Dem and will be voting for McCain* because he's white. Granted this all takes place in Central PA but still factors into the RV/LV polls.

I'm not stating Obama is gonna lose PA, I think he'll win it but it's going to be narrower I think than what we're seeing right now.

[Bicoastal]

6. Well, by your non-scientific estimation...

...how much do you think Obama will win Pennsylvania by?

[justiceischeap]

7. In my non-scientific estimation

I'll guess 3.2% or somewhere in that neighborhood.

[femmocrat]

3. PA voter here.

I think there is probably some suspicion that people are saying they will vote for Obama, but will actually vote for McCain. No one wants to come out and say they won't vote for a black candidate. (I guess that is the "Bradley effect"?) I live in a red part of the state, and have overheard some anti-Obama comments that make me wonder if people ARE reluctant because he is black. That is hard to gauge, though. Some people are just bigots, rednecks, and just plain ignorant. Let's just say that Murtha knows his constituents!

I still believe that Obama will defeat McCain in PA, though.

What concerns me, however, is that we do not have early voting in PA. Imagine the entire state trying to vote in just 13 hours! I predict lots of problems. If it weren't for Rendell at the helm, I would be predicting another Ohio 2004. Long lines, machines breaking down, unreliable ES&S electronic machines, not enough provisional ballots... there are a zillion things that can go wrong. I think it will be a mess in the cities if the turnout is as huge as is expected.

Pray for Pennsylvania voters, DU!

[Bicoastal]

4. Why would they lie to the pollsters? That's the part I simply can't understand...

...'cuz if they're out-and-out racists, why would they be ashamed to talk about it?

[justiceischeap]

8. My best friends mom didn't out and out say

"I won't vote for a black man" it was more along the line of "There's no way I'd vote for him." which I followed up with, because he's black and she nodded. As the other poster said, people know it's not "right" to racist, so there's the politically correct aspect of it.

[femmocrat]

10. Maybe they are "closet" racists!

Yes, some will come right out and say they would never vote for a black president. Others are more subtle and use fear rationales (such as: he will give "everything" to "his own people"!) They are just morans.

Honestly, I don't know who gets polled. A lot of people don't have landline phones anymore. And a lot of the yahoos around here just have those "trac phones". (I know this from trying to call parents.)

I have never been polled except by Zogby online.

[IsItJustMe]

14. Don't know about anyone else, but I tell posters to go F*ck themselves and that it is none of their

damn business who I vote for. But that is probably just me.

[quakerboy]

9. That seems odd

Have you seen the rally vids? People have no problems saying all sorts of things.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7644123

That one for instance, has a number of people directly saying that they don't want a black man to win.

[dugaresa]

11. perhaps he is just trying to stir up the base?

can't have voters getting complacent and not going to the polls.

there are loads of McCain signs all over the place in some areas of PA...so the key will be to bring out the Philly and Pittsburgh votes.

[femmocrat]

It's true. We can't take anything for granted.

It's all McCain signs where I live, too. That is why I am nervous about the turnout in the cities. Hope the polling places are prepared for the huge turnout!

Welcome to DU, dugaresa :hi:

[democrattotheend]

12. Non-response bias, for one. And race of interviewer.

Pew did a study a while ago where they called back people who had initially declined to be interviewed for a survey and tried again to get them to respond. Of the people who initially declined but then agreed on the second pass, Pew found that their attitudes were more negative toward racial minorities than the people who took the survey the first time. That's largely a function of demographics...higher-information voters are more likely to take surveys. Because of the desire to be uber-current, most pollsters do not use callbacks in pre-election polling.

Also, some pollsters have found a race-of-interviewer effect, where white voters are more likely to lie and say that they support a black candidate or say they are undecided if the person conducting the survey is black. I know a few Democratic pollsters who say they have found this effect with presidential polling this year...all other things being equal, Obama tends to do significantly better among the sample interviewed by black interviewers than the sample interviewed by white interviewers.

[abumbyanyothername]

13. The Pennsylvania strategy

What McCain campaign is seeing is that McCain is actually running stronger than Bush in the rural areas of the state. They feel they are doing as well or better up in Scranton.

They see Pittsburgh as only slightly more favoring Obama than Kerry.

They figure they can't do any worse than Bush did in Philly.

They simply don't believe the polls from the Philly suburbs. And this is exactly where Barack was today.

Or at least that is the only explanation that I have heard that even starts to make sense.

I suspect that they think they can get an advantage because of no early vote also.