Why is Obama doing much better in state polls than national polls?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

It seems that state polls bring good news after good news, and Obama is overperforming Kerry by huge margins, while the national polls are tightening a bit and Obama seems to be up about +6. Is there any reasonable explanation for this? I'm not complaining since it's state polls that matter, just wondering why is this happening. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but the only reason I see is that some national polls are cooking the numbers to make it seem closer than it is.

[Bread and Circus]

1. Because the national media (cnn et al) is working against him nationally but...

he is counteracting this mainly in the important swing states with focused advertising, physical presence, surrogates, etc.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. the national polls still have a 2004/2000 weighting

equation. It can easily be pushme'd pullyou's in any direction.

Then again, they could be anticipating the voter fraud that we already face.

[HughMoran]

2. 'Cause you worry too much

:D

(I worry too, we all do)

[skooooo]

4. Pew has him up 16 points nationally..

What a bunch of worry warts!

[Fire_brand]

5. National polls move quicker than state polls

I've noticed that where the national polls move in one direction for a week, the state polls don't usually reflect that until the following week. If we see the race tighten this week, except the last batch of state polls to be narrower than what were seeing this week.

I would wait out the week before you conclude that the national polls are tightening, let's see where Obama stands this Friday as compared to last Friday.

[RDANGELO]

9. I think the reason for that is the dates of the polls.

Most of the state polls are taken over a period of three or four days, and then sometimes the release is a day or two latter. Rasmussen polls are taken all in one night and released the next day. I always look at the dates of the state polls. State polls are naturally more accurate because you are sampling a larger proportion of the voters.

[MoJoWorkin]

6. It is mainly the Red State South ---he is not doing so well among white southerners

Red states that are lopsided for McLizard make the national polls closer. IMHO

[Terran]

7. I wouldn't even worry about it

The national polls are a sideshow, basically. The only important thing is state-by-state who wins and who loses. And right now the EV numbers sort of translate to the equivalent of a national poll showing Obama ahead 89-7--in other words, just an expression of the relative liklihood that Obama will come up with the EV's he needs. He only needs to win Virgina to win.

Edit to add: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ is your friend! :hi:

[TheKentuckian]

8. I think anyone that is really paying attention

would see they play with the polls a lot. They change the weights and the Corporate media will pimp the polls that fit their narrative. CNN constantly changes their poll of polls which makes it a joke from any perspective.

Come on really, last week they were pushing a poll that used 43% Evangelical and said that McGollum was winning 18-34 by like 70/30 and even that could only "tighten" the race to O+1.
Trust me, those are such worst case numbers as they can't exist and Obama still was up. Pat Buchanan could have won under those conditions.

Nothing is guaranteed but the wind is at our backs but if people are concerned then remember what Hillary said during her speech at the convention-KEEP RUNNING! IF YOU HEAR THOSE DOGS ON YOUR HEELS, THEN KEEP RUNNING.

If we keep running, they won't catch us. Keep the faith, keep your eyes on the prize, and never ever give up. If it is a long dark night, know that when the dawn breaks that it will be us that are still standing.

[Alhena]

10. Because he's running ads nonstop in battleground states and has a huge ground game

[democrattotheend]

11. State polls tend to lag a little

They are conducted over longer periods of time, so they tend to be a little behind in terms of reflecting trends. The same is true of some non-tracking national polls. If we start bleeding ground in the national tracking polls in the last few days then the state polls will probably have overstated Obama's support because they lag further behind.

[thewiseguy]

16. I call BS

Rasmussen's state polls are done in just one day and released the day after.

National polls do not necessarily reflect on state polls. Obama's 27+ margin in California could be shrinking or McCain's 10+ margin in Texas could be expanding which could explain the tightening in the polls.

[Essene]

12. (a) "likely voter" polls are all over the place and (b) all that matters are the state-based trends

It may turn out that Obama's lead is in the single digit range. It may also turn out that he ends up in the high 50% range. We'll see.

What we need to do is stop stressing all these volatile up/down national polls.

What matters are the overall trends... showing Obama solidly above 48% and increasing, in all the places that matter,

[Schulzz]

13. The Dailykos/R2000 internals tell me that most of McCain's "gains"

are probably in the south and with 30-44 year old voters.

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/28

[DrToast]

14. A 6-pt win in the popular vote is likely a landslide in the electoral college. n/t

*

[grantcart]

15. Obama is doing much better in battleground states because he is running

his campaign there.

There is no national vote just looke at the state polls and forget the national polls altogether if they make you nervouse.

The Obama campaign doesn't even bother with national poll numbers - which in any case - are not moving much apple to apple

Obama is sitting on a 7-8 point lead



state polls stable

[TheWraith]

17. There is no national presidential campaign.

There just isn't. The Obama campaign isn't running nationally, they're running focused efforts on a state by state basis.

And no, it's not "tightening," for the umpteenth time. You'd think people would have gotten used to statistical noise by now.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

18. Because McCain is winning states like Utah, Idaho, and Oklahoma by insane margins.