Gallup Daily... not good: +7, +7, +2 (-3 in all three categories)

[scheming daemons]

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx


Still ahead... but not numbers we want to see..... I'm guessing a good Obama day dropped off.

[Bicoastal]

1. ?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

2. On the positive side, Obama is ahead with one week to go!

There is some tightening of the polls but Obama is still clearly ahead, and McPalin hasn't lead in any polls since right after the conventions.
And the state polls are still looking great for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Like Pew Better

Will wait for WAPO

[KittyWampus]

91. fwiw, Pew is the only one I trust.

[Alhena]

4. Up 7 in people who say they will vote- ok with me

[geek tragedy]

5. Oh noez!

Up by 5-8 points regardless. And Gallup's traditional likely voter model is bunk.

[Sodan]

15. Exactly! 5-8 points lead at this moment - brilliant!

[scheming daemons]

18. I like the lead.... I just dont want this to be a trend line...

[geek tragedy]

31. One day's results isn't a trend.

It's a single data point.

[Occam Bandage]

6. Not bad, either. Tightening is expected.

[Politics_Guy25]

9. Tightening to a 2 point race is expected???-n/t

[MadBadger]

12. Here we go again

[scheming daemons]

14. Depends on which model you use..... I think their LV-expanded is more accurate

[CreekDog]

17. a 2 point race? is that how you read this and all the other polls?

i guess that explains a lot.

[Occam Bandage]

33. Gallup's "traditional likely voters" is nonsense. Dems now outnumber Repubs.

[BlueIdaho]

7. Prepare to see this election stolen.

This is how it starts...

[iceman66]

16. I fear you are correct.

[Drunken Irishman]

56. Loser #2.

[Bake]

67. I fear you are mistaken.

As for me, I ain't skeered, dammit.

Bake

[Smuckies]

30. I sadly agree.

I hope I'm wrong, but this election will be stolen.

[Drunken Irishman]

58. And Loser #3.

You three are perfect for each other.

[Smuckies]

85. Mm...not really...just facing the truth.

[foo_bar]

97. which is it?

"I hope I'm wrong, but this election will be stolen." (your post)
vs.
"Obama will win Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, and Tennessee on 11/4" (your sig)

So we win McC's home state but lose the election? Is there no happy medium between utter despair and irrational overconfidence (Tennessee)? I've noticed that people who sign up to DU within weeks of an election often think this way, I dunno if it's a chaos thing or just unreasonable expectations from joining the board at its most echo-chambery. If you truly believe you're "facing the truth" you should buy up the McCain options on intrade and make your 800% ROI or whatever, maybe you know something the 87.8% don't.

[Smuckies]

103. I'll clarify:

I think that Obama WILL win the states in my signature, IF they don't steal the election.

If they DO steal the election, Obama will only win 6 or so states.

We can't let it happen!

[okieinpain]

92. funny. it won't be stolen, they will try but the lead is just too big

this time.

[Sodan]

35. A self-defeating prophecy /nt

[azmouse]

46. ENOUGH! Stop with this 'stolen' bullshit, everyone.

Obama is waaaay ahead in the early voting.

McCain people are jumping ship because they know he can't win.

ENOUGH!

[Drunken Irishman]

55. Loser #1.

[americanmaverick]

95. Bullshit. We were at this point last week

It was always clear the polls are gonna tighten( even Obama,Plouffe and Axelrod predicted it), but you won't see Mccain take the lead and more importantly you won't see any significant change at state level .

[Bicoastal]

8. Seems to me like all of the polls are condensing into a 5-6 point lead.

[scheming daemons]

11. I think you're right.... the good news, is Obama is at or above 50 in most still...

[MadBadger]

10. Gallup showed a bad Polling day for Obama yesterday...not backed up by other tracking polls

Rasmussen has it unchanged, R2K actually had him improve in yesterday's individual sample, Hotline has it staying the same, GWU has it the same. I even hear IBD has obama gaining a point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Nate Silver And Sam Wang Say It's Insane To Focus On One Poll And Ignore The Average

That's what I am going to do...

[Sodan]

32. State polls ..state polls - I am mostly looking at Virginia - THE key state this time, IMO /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. But The State Polls Follow The Nat'l Polls

There are just a lot more nat'l tracking polls...

I'm not going to freak out over one poll...

[leftist.]

88. Thank you, I suspected this was the case given the stability of every other poll.

How does one see the daily breakouts? I'm curious about what the bad numbers were.

[Smuckies]

13. Uh...that's not good.

Here we go again.

[wolverinez]

47. PRevent defense never works. I'd like to see some offense in the final days

nm

[Democat]

72. Exactly - Obama needs offense - destroy McCain!

Obama has been letting McCain and Palin get away with everything. I think he hopes he can get in with an all positive message, but we all know that attacks and negative campaigning works.

Hopefully Obama will have some fight saved up for this week!

[dennis4868]

20. Obama still has a lead which is nice being only 7 days out from the election...

but -3 in every Gallup model is a huge drop for one day...still think Obama needs to be more clear in defending himself against the socialism attacks much like David Gergen did it on CNN today...

[smoogatz]

21. Obama's up 15 in today's Pew poll, among likely voters.

He's up 19 among those who already voted, which is a potent indicator, IMO.

[Higher Standard]

22. A little down, but it's the state polls that matter

It's all about the electoral votes, so I can handle some fluctuation in the national poll as long as Obama's still maintaining his solid leads in the state polls.

[Uzybone]

23. Its OK....Ive always felt 7 pts is the firewall

Guarantee you itll be 8 points on Monday. We need to keep doing whatever we can to GOTV.

[Tesibria]

24. Tightening expected - which is why we MUST G-O-T-V!!!!! nt

[tpi10d]

25. This is where we were pre-Powell

Gut reaction tells me at +5% we're getting into hardened Obama support and little further erosion is possible. At this point you're getting into people polarized against McCain/Palin, who like Obama and won't change their mind.


I'm seeing status quo headlines and news stories, nothing game changing.

[budkin]

26. It won't go any lower than this.

[azmouse]

27. In the early voting results, Obama is up by some 20 points.

In some areas it's as much as 50 points.

So many people (as much as 10% of the voting populace) has voted already.

Obama will win.

[Brotherjohn]

28. I say 10 seconds before McCain ditches his favorite Zogby for a new favorite (Gallup, LV, Trad'l).

The one poll showing the closest possible scenario.

Easy question when the inevitable McCain spokesperson goes on the air (in a few minutes, no doubt) citing this poll is: "So why wasn't McCain citing this poll 3 days ago when it showed Obama with a 7-8 point lead?" or "What makes this poll any more reliable than the new Pew poll, which has McCain down by 15%? Isn't it true that these are both outliers and the truth is somewhere in the middle?"

[krawhitham]

29. 3 point swing in one day on a tracker, the #s for just yesterday must have been horrible

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Then Why Wasn't The Drop Reflected In Ras, Battle Ground, Hotline, Z(o)mby And TIPP?

~

[dennis4868]

38. that's what I was thinking...

:-(

[Democat]

40. The question is: Why?

Is it just a random bad day, or the start of something bad? Are the "socialism" charges starting to hit the polls, or is this just a random bad sample? I guess we should have a better idea tomorrow.

[MadBadger]

48. IT WAS ONE POLL

None of the others tracking polls had any real change at all.

[scheming daemons]

41. Or.... the numbers from 4 days ago were VERY good for Obama and dropped off...

[WeDidIt]

34. Probably a good Obama day dropped off

and a good McCain day hit.

Even R2000/DKos has it at 7 (50-43).

[Politics_Guy25]

49. The same thing happened to Governor Clinton in 1992 in the final week

The bombshell Iran-Contra independent counsel revelations halted GHWB's ascent in it's tracks, however, or at least that's what I remember reading in Bob Woodward's book "Shadow: Five Presidents and the legacy of Watergate."

Let's hope for something similar here to come out against Mccain.

[Jersey Devil]

37. This is exactly where it was last Friday 51-44

For all the teeth gnashing there is absolutely no difference in the expanded LV Gallup from last Friday. Wake me up when it's Saturday. That's when it should all settle down.

[scheming daemons]

45. I agree.... and hope you're right

[wowimthere]

39. its why I don't pay attention to gallup daily tracking poll

[Thrill]

42. They need to start hitting back harder on that spread the wealth garbage

[wolverinez]

50. agreed nm

nm

[Politics_Guy25]

Yep-you said it-n/t

[Smuckies]

54. Agreed. This is hurting Obama.

I fear this will be the game changer (not hitting harder). Kerry never responded, and look what happened.

[MadBadger]

60. Does Pew up 16 also Concern you? Does Hotline's no change (up 8) concern you?

How bout Rasmussen's no change from Obama's steady five point lead? do those concern you?

[Smuckies]

63. Absoloutely not - but let's be real - we know Obama won't win by 16.

Probably not even 8. A victory is a victory, but I just fear this is 2004 all over again. We can't let it happen!

[MadBadger]

65. No he wont, but then why when only ONE poll shows Tightening to you go crazy?

Seems maybe Gallup's poll from yesterday was a little bit of an outlier

[Smuckies]

70. I'm not going crazy, I'm nervous because we are running out of time

It's not like we can say "Ok, we still have 2 months left".

Our time is up, and tightening is absolutely expected, but I'm worried this is the beginning stages of a stolen election. We can't let it happen again.

[OKNancy]

102. Stay away from the "stolen election"

threads. Of course the Republicans will pull their stunts, but the Obama people are on top of it. The stolen election stuff is magnified ten-fold here on DU.

[dennis4868]

75. listen...

give people a break when they go crazy over a bad poll...after 8 years of hell, 2 stolen elections, people have a right to worry when a bad poll comes out for Obama...and the truth is things are tightening some but not a whole lot but there is some tightening...still think Obama is in the drivers seat :-)

[Jennicut]

80. I know people are worried Dennis but to be a winner you have to think like a winner

Be confident and if there are shenanigans go right in and pounce and act quickly and decisively. Hand wringing and worry and woe as me won't help. Obama certainly is concerned by voting problems but not daunted by it so why should we?

[Thrill]

83. The issue is hurting him. He needs to strike back harder on it. Not ignore the charge

[MadBadger]

84. Give me proof that it is hurting him

[mvd]

61. Kerry responded, though not quite enough IMO

I agree that if Obama uses Gergen's argument and also the Clinton numbers argument, that would stop any possible decline.

[Drunken Irishman]

64. I fear for your sanity.

Are you fucking kidding me? How is this a game changer? Are you fucking serious? Did you just crawl out of a hole to air out this bullshit opinion? Where is the proof this is a game changer? Because Obama dropped a bit in Gallup? Why do DUers take one poll and then ignore the rest? This is what pisses me off about you negative types. You LOVE the negativity, so you camp out in these threads and show your concern, while ignoring every other damn poll.

Like Pew, showing Obama up 16.

Or Hotline showing Obama up 8.

It's enough to drive me to drink...more!

[Smuckies]

66. I HAVE responded to the +16 poll threads

And they make me very happy - But we know Obama won't win by 16, so let's be real.

Not hitting hard is a game changer, especially this late in the election. It seems like to me, McCain hits harder, and I don't like it.

[dennis4868]

69. it seems as though...

Obama is playing 4 corners offense waiting for the clock to run out...he has got to smash McShit on this socialist attack...

[Hope And Change]

87. Dennis, he`s been doing it all the time on his rallies.

[Drunken Irishman]

76. So the +16 is hard to believe, but the +2 isn't?

I don't get your logic. Plus, you already conceded above that the election will be stole.

:crazy:

[Jennicut]

78. So average the polls out, it comes to 6.8 on Real Clear Politics

That is where the race has been all along: 5 to 8 points. Sheesh.

[Jennicut]

73. This is not hurting Obama, its McLame supporters coming home to McLame

because they are conservatives and have no where else to go. The last two elections got tighter at the end, why should this one be any different? It is also one day of one poll. Some of you guys were the ones who counted Obama out when he was down in the daily tracking polls against McPhalin right after the RNC. Obama is doing what he needs to do, not stay or do anything offensive or stupid right before the election. The race has been around 5 to 7 points all along per Real Clear Politics. Anything over or under has been an outlier. Now please calm down and do something positive for Obama instead of handwringing. And please look at the state polls, Obama has leads in every single battleground state or is tied. That is wonderful news as Kerry was behind in almost all of them at this time.

[dennis4868]

59. agree...

McCain wants to spread the wealth to the wealthiest americans...how come I do not hear Obama and his team saying this...WTF?

[Democat]

62. Obama seems to have a "no hitting" policy for some reason

Come on, Palin was found to be abusing her power and Obama let it completely fall out of the news in one day.

They seem to hope they can coast into the presidency without really brutally attacking McCain and staying "positive". How has being positive worked in the last few elections?

There are so many things that Obama could have been using to undermine McCain and Palin, but he just let's opportunity after opportunity go by without going on the attack.

I still think he can win, but I would like to have seen a lot more offense from this campaign so we aren't coming down to the last few days still wondering.

[Drunken Irishman]

68. Hey, Democrat, I don't know if you read this or not...

But Obama is winning. He's been winning for nearly every week since summer (outside of a two week span once the GOP Convention ended). Maybe Obama knows what he's actually doing?

I know, I know, you're smart and you fully believe they should ring you up every night to talk strategy, but what they've been doing appears to be working.

So calm down and return back to reality, k? Cool.

[Democat]

74. I have said before that I give them the benefit of the doubt, but...

We have seen too many elections lost on being nice and taking the high road. I would like to see a little more punch throwing from Obama in the last week.

[dennis4868]

77. or at least an...

effective defense to the socialist charge....all he has to say is that McCain wants to redistribute the wealth to the wealthiest americans and I want to help the middle class...take your pick america!

[Drunken Irishman]

79. haha

You're not serious, right? You're actually comparing the past two elections -- where our candidates were down in nearly every poll the final month of the campaign -- to this one, where our candidate has been up for 33 straight days?

Yes, Obama should go out there and start ramping up the negative attacks in the final week! That'll work! YEAH! Forget that most voters who ditched McCain's lame ass said negative campaigning turned them off, Obama should get down in the mud, too!

That's the type of campaign message Obama really needs to be sending during the final week. Go from talking about uniting the country, to right back at creating division. SMART!

[Democat]

82. How is it "negative" to point out, for example, Palin's abuse of power?

Give me a break - you said "negative", I said OFFENSE!

[msallied]

43. It's the polls in the battleground states that matter most at this point.

And they do not show a tightening scenario...

[tedoll78]

51. I also suspect..

that Obama is going to get a mini-bump from his infomercial tomorrow night. Watch and see..

[soccermomforobama]

52. I think the numbers will pick on Thursday

after the weekend numbers for McCain drop off.

[Lex]

53. " . . . BASED ON PAST VOTING BEHAVIORS . . . "

we already see with early voting that the model of "past voting behaviors" doesn't fit

[mvd]

57. Every poll can have a bad sample day

I think without the other polls showing tightening, that's what happened.

[stillcool]

71. Go vote!

[yellowcanine]

81. Relax. Gallup daily tracking poll is notorious for wild swings.

[Essene]

86. exactly... and we're all growing tired of the "im concerned" threads on this

[FUCK_BUSH]

89. I AM TRIED OF ALL THESE NEGATIVE FUCKING PEOPLE. HAVE SOME BACK BONE PEOPLE. DON'T LOOSE IT JUST B/C

OF COUPLE OF NUMBERS. IS THIS HOW WE ARE GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION AND FIGHT BACK THE VOTER FRAUD ??????

THIS IS BIGGEST ISSUE I HAVE WITH DEMS , NO BACK BONE AND NO FIRE TO FIGHT BACK. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

[budkin]

90. CONCERN FTL.

[kenziemom06]

94. Polls FTMFL !!!

seriously...one "bad" poll can't send us over the
edge or we'll be useless next Tuesday!

[sarahdemva]

93. please dont post negative news. any good news??

[ZeitGuy]

107. No. It's ALL bad news. Hope is LOST. Let's just forget it.

:sarcasm:

[Cali_Democrat]

96. Obama will gain ground in these Gallup polls tommorrow

Obama had a poor polling day on Saturday. Zogby also confirmed this. Saturday's numbers will drop off this tracking poll as it is a 3-day rolling average.

Obama will gain ground tomorrow in these Gallup polls because Saturday's numbers will no longer be included.

[Jennicut]

98. Yup, thats what I think too. The bad day will drop off.

[leftist.]

99. Cali_Democrat, I have a question.

Just so you know, I figured that was the case given the larger than normal swing coupled with the lack of movement in other polls. How do you see these one day results? I couldn't find them on Gallup and was curious to see what happened.

[Cali_Democrat]

100. Actually I could be wrong about this Gallup poll

I was mixing up Zogby's numbers and Gallup's numbers. Someone had posted the internals yesterday or the day before. I'm going to have to look for it.

But it now looks to me like Monday was a bad polling day for Obama in this poll when you compare it to previous days.

[Life Long Dem]

101. I like the one right below it.

23% percent feel McSame will win.

[Phx_Dem]

104. Gallups pretty-much sucks. Half the time their polls are

decent, the other half they're bad. Also, national polls don't mean jack.

That said, this is a good way to alleviate complacency. Keep the shitty polls comin' Gallup!

[skipos]

105. We're DOOOOOOOMED!

It's a TRAP!
This smells like ROVE!

[TheKentuckian]

106. Did Kerry lead the vast majority of the campaign

other than a convention bump for the shrub? NO!

Stop being spineless and do some phonebanking or something else useful rather than asking to be talked down and wringing your hands. If you won't do that then go to the bar or do some bong hits and chill the fuck out.

Obama is fighting back hard on this nonsense, as are the surrogates. Its not going away because McGollum/Phailin repeat lies, the Corporate media allows it just like all the other lies, and too many people didn't pay attention in school. The good news is most people could give a crap what McHoover has to say on economic issues and those of us that can remember beyond a news cycle recall that McGollum was also against the shrub tax cuts himself and Phailin is the most proven socialist maybe to ever run.

Being wary is one thing but being a worrier is counter-productive to you and everyone else. What is the point of a bunch of doom and gloom?

[The Stranger]

108. But you're not supposed to be anything but absolutely certain we have already won.

Haven't you been around here this week?