Politico/InsiderAdv: CO: O 53 - McBush 45; PA: O 51 - McGrampy 42

[Jersey Devil]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15024.html

[democrattotheend]

1. Cool. That makes me feel a little better.

I'm stressed about the Rasmussen poll coming out later that supposedly has good news for McCain in PA, but this is encouraging. I agree with the article's premise that PA is closer than it looks, but I'm not sure how they drew that conclusion from this particular poll. Bush won Jefferson County 2:1 in 2004, and won Bucks County by 10 points. If Obama is tied there that's an improvement, although there are a lot of undecideds. Maybe they expect McCain to get most of the undecideds given those counties' Republican lean.

[Alhena]

3. PA has 1.2 million more registered Dems than Reps

[democrattotheend]

5. Party registration means little in a state like PA

Central PA has a ton of lapsed Democrats who vote Republican, and the Philly suburbs used to have a lot of lapsed Republicans who now vote Democrat, although the Democratic primary this year inspired a lot of them to change their registration so they could participate. So I think that accounts for part of the registration gap.

[dennis4868]

6. why is it when Obama has a nice lead...

like 9 points...there will sometimes be a comment in the article that things are closer than it looks...WTF does that mean...NO, it's a 9 point lead...and that is a very comfortable lead...

[democrattotheend]

11. Because it doesn't add up

I grew up in South Jersey outside Philly and went to high school in the Philly suburbs. I was in PA every weekend during the primary, and I met a lot of white Democrats even in Philly who said they couldn't vote for Obama, with some even admitting it was racial. On the Main Line in the Jewish areas I met Jews who said they have always voted Democratic but may not vote for Obama because they don't think he's good for Israel. I was called a traitor to my religion and had people say some very nasty choice words about Obama (one woman even called him white trash, which just doesn't make sense. Can a black man be white trash?) And this was all in the Southeastern part of the state, which is usually the Democratic stronghold.

I am not saying PA is unwinnable, but it was close the last few elections and I think it will be close this year. I'd love to be wrong but I don't think I am. I would be on Obama winning it, but not by double digits.

[dennis4868]

13. why do jews just assume...

that McCain is so good for Israel...he has said that we have to respect that Hamas is in power and therefore he would consider having talks with them...WTF? Can you imagine if Obama said this? All hell would break loose in the jewish communities.

Plus, Obama has a 100% pro Israel voting record and officials in AIPAC have signed off on Obama saying he will be a pro Israel president.

What else do American Jews want? Change of skin color? Change in his middle name? This is pathetic to say the least.

Anyway, Clinton, Gore and Kerry all won PA...Obama is not going to lose the state...the racist and Jews make up a very small % of the vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Obama Is Getting 75% Of The Jewish Vote!

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031176.html

Beside African Americans they are and have been the Democratic party's most stalwart supporters and have always been their largest benefactors...

[WI_DEM]

9. The PA tracking poll thru Muhlenberg College has Obama up by 12

he's been leading by double digits in there tracking poll for weeks. This was a very accurate poll in 2004, I wouldn't sweat some small gains that Rasmussen will report in PA later this day.

[Jersey Devil]

12. I think Rasmussen will probably show numbers similar to this poll

like an 8-9 point lead. Don't forget that the last Rasmussen for PA had Obama up by 13 I believe, which I think was an outlier because I just don't see him winning by double digits there.

[WI_DEM]

2. CO and VA polls have looked good, with NM, IA and Kerry states Obama has more

than enough to be elected. Anything more will be the cherry on the cake.

[kwolf68]

10. The cherry is what we want

It is a sufficient argument against voter fraud by Acorn (much of a red herring as that is) and it also is a concrete rejection of the McLame/Palin ideology.

We need a blowout I think to really start bringing this thing together.

[progressivebydesign]

4. considering InsiderAdv is owned by hardcore republican donors.. Those are GREAT numbers! n/t

[mvd]

7. Yeah, the article did read like a Repuke wrote it, too

Trying to find any bit of good news for McCain. Using one county (Bucks - a Repuke one) to gauge isn't a great idea.

[Two Sheds]

8. That 53 in Colorado is great.

Since McCain has PA in the bag :sarcasm: let's see what Colorado means.
Kerry states minus PA = 231
CO, IA, NM, all red in '04 = 21 = 252
That means a win in Nevada and Virginia would put Obama over the top without FL, OH, and PA. Lots of ways to get to White House. I hope Rasmussen has some great news for his boy, because if he doesn't...:woohoo:

[HughMoran]

14. Good numbers

We'll take 'em - let's keep 'em coming.