Exit Poll Question

[BeFree]

After what transpired in 2004 with exit-polls showing questionable results it behooves us to question the upcoming exit-polls of 2008.

We can expect once again that the exit polls show a democratic victory, at least in the 'Raw' numbers.

In 2004, the raw numbers showed a democratic victory and did so all day right up to midnight before the exit polls were cooked in with the official results. After being cooked into the official results, the 2004 polls gave victory to Bush. In the subsequent studies of the 2004 exit polls that took place, two things stood out about the final exit poll findings:

1) False background info was used to establish the final exit poll... (way too many Bush 2000 voters were cooked into the recipe), and

2) A false explanation of "Reluctant Responders" to describe why the raw numbers lead everyone to believe Kerry won.

Through its history exit-polls proved to be an accurate estimate of the winners and losers. That is why news networks have doled out millions upon millions of dollars for the polling.

But in 2004, the exit-polls failed, and there has been much discussion here as to why those polls failed. The consensus is that the cooking of the poll numbers with the fraudulent machined votes caused the error.

We still have the vote stealing machines and we can expect those machined official results to be as dirty as possible.

Question is: Can we expect the crooked machined vote counts to conflict with the 2008 exit-polls as badly as they did in 2004?

[ananda]

1. Actually..

.. the exit polls showed a Kerry victory
and Kerry actually won.

The election was stolen.

[BeFree]

2. Indeed

And I believe we can expect the same result from the exit polls this time given that the machines are owned and operated by republican operatives. I believe Obama will win and the raw numbers will show that result, but if McSame is given the election we can expect the exit polls will roll over an play dead. Again.

[Overseas]

3. Perhaps the OP is mad that the correct exit polls were later adjusted to agree with

the Kenneth Blackwell vote totals. The exit polling and vote totals were in agreement til around 11 pm, and then diverged sharply.

The conservative owned corporate media then engaged in some tortured discussion of how one of the most reputable exit polling companies in the world could have gotten things wrong.

Instead of interpreting the discrepancies correctly, as we would with any other country's vote count and exit polling diverging so much, too many people allowed right wingers to take over the discussion and pitch their stories about exit polling being inaccurate.

THen moderate Democrats went along and engaged in the Guns God & Gays discussions on TV, also already ready to roll out to explain away why Kerry "lost".

Moderate Democrats waved us away when we complained about all kinds of election manipulation being done in Ohio and other swing states to toss out Democratic ballots or flip our votes. Conspiracy theory, they said.

Even though it is unprecedented to have votes agreeing with exit polling at 11 pm at 51 Kerry, 48 Bush then change BY SIX POINTS -- Kerry down three, Bush up three. Statistically extremely improbable. But moderate Democrats and Republicans and the 5 conglomerated media companies in conservative hands now told us we were wrong. Kerry had lost.

I only hope that we will be allowed to have unfettered continuous access to exit polling this time too. I am afraid that "to save the public from confusion" the conservative owned media will try to avoid giving us continuous access to that information, and will only allow us to see the data after it is adjusted to match the vote totals on the Republican owned private software.

To review what happened in a calm, comprehensive documentary, please check out

Stealing America: Vote by Vote www.stealingamericathemovie.com

They have great charts of historical data on exit polling and how it works as a check and balance in other countries and statistical probabilities.

They also have excellent TV footage from prior elections.