Rasmussen was just on Faux news. His poll coming out for Pa later today will be good for McCain.

[jezebel]

He said his last poll there had Obama up in double digits, but this one shows McCain closing in and it is tighter (bullshit poll)

[Democat]

1. Every poll we don't like can't be dismissed

That's what the far right did in 2006 and that didn't work out too well for them.

If it's only one poll, that's one thing, but when multiple polls start showing a trend, then it could be true.

Nothing to panic about, but ignoring all polls doesn't help either.

[MadBadger]

6. It is only one poll. Virtually all polls out of PA have Obama up double digits

[jezebel]

7. But it is just one poll. All other polls show Obama up big in PA. So forgive me if I think right

wing Rasmussen is going to pad his poll to give McCain people a little hope.

[Democat]

20. Fair enough!

I just think it's dangerous to outright dismiss all polls we don't like.

[kid a]

9. fuck that, ignore that shit- we're 20 down in PA - GOTV, Lets get to work PA

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Midlodemocrat]

26. Pardon me, but why are you still undecided?

Obama is by far the better candidate. Why would you, at this late date, still consider voting for McCain?

[Bleacher Creature]

32. Check his/her profile. Do you really think the "undecided" quip is legit?

[progressivebydesign]

31. I'm curious how someone could be "undecided" when choosing between polar opposites?

That has always baffled me. It's like trying to decide between having a steak.. or ice cream.. for dinner.

If you believe that the government has no business spying on private conversations.
If you believe that women should have control of their own reproductive rights.
If you believe that attacking other countries pre-emptively is bad foreign policy.
If you believe that diplomacy should be the first resort.
If you believe that we should stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overses.
If you believe that it's time ti restore our standing in the world.
If you believe that it's time to focus attention on OUR economy, not Iraq's.
If you believe that it's wrong to spend 10 billion A MONTH in Iraq.
If you believe that it's time to clean house and remove the people who have done so much damage in the past 8 years...


Then the choice is clear.

Obama.

[dennis4868]

34. because most people....

unfortunately do not vote on the issues....that's why repubs have been successful in elections....if people voted on the issues Dems would have won the last 3 presidential elections by a landslide...people vote based on who they feel are most like them, who they could see themselves having a beer with, who is the scary guy and will not protect them, someone's religion, etc...

[Native]

35. Oh it's easy - you just have to understand the source . . . case in point

I have a friend who was torn between Huckabee & Obama. The rationale? Huckabee is religious, but Oprah likes Obama (and my friend likes Oprah). Issues? What issues?

[spanone]

39. i guess they figure someone a dumbass if they hadn't decided by now

[Vinca]

2. Not to worry. Obama has come up with so many paths to 270

that it wouldn't be a game changer even if the near impossible happened and McCain won the state. That said McCain won't be able to do it in PA, so don't fret about it.

[WI_DEM]

3. He has to give them some hope. What will it be 7 or 8 points for Obama?

[thewiseguy]

4. LOL

:rofl:

[scheming daemons]

5. it will go from 10 points to 9.... yawn.....

[fugop]

8. Cavalry on the way

Isn't Bill Clinton heading up a big Pa. rally soon? Bring 'em home, Bill!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. It's not like Oama is actually going to win PA by double digits, so that's fine

[matchstick]

11. Good, it will force obama supporters to go and vote.

tight polls are good for Obama!!!!

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

12. Would a 7 or 8 point win be so bad?

As much as I'd like to see those double-digit polls be right, I doubt that this will happen. The bigger issue will be the individual state polls, and Obama's still holding all the Kerry states and a sufficient number of others to win handily.

[Connie_Corleone]

19. I think Kerry only won PA by 2 or 3 points in 2004.

[bklyngrl60]

25. It was similar for Gore as well - less than 5. nt

x

[azmouse]

13. PA has gone Democratic for a long time.

Nothing will change this year.

[HughMoran]

14. Rasmussen state polls are only rated "average"

Their national poll is respected, but his state numbers are average at best - living off his reputaion as a decent national pollster.

[leftynyc]

15. So he's only up 9??

A nice healthy lead in any contest.

[WeDidIt]

16. The last Rasmussen in PA had it O -54 M-41 Difference of 13

That was on October 6.

I suspect a 9 or 8 point difference now. Given that it's Rasmussen, even 7 would not be surprising.

[democrattotheend]

38. I would guess it's closer than that if Rasmussen was saying "good news for McCain"

I don't think 8 or 9 points a week before the election is really good news. I am guessing 4-6 points.

[Two Sheds]

41. As long as Obama stays above 50%

the news can only be so good. I'm going to guess a six point Obama lead, 51-45. Any margin larger than that, especially one with Obama over 50%, is stretching the definition of "good news."

[THUNDER HANDS]

17. anything above 4 points is gravy

4 points is where it starts to get dicey.

[ericgtr]

18. So what even if McCain did win it would take a lot more than just PA to pull him out of his rat hole

Too little too late.

[Abacus]

21. McCain has closed a couple points in PA the last few days, but

Going from -12 to -10 isn't going to cut it. Rasmussen also tends to be (little c) conservative with his numbers and gets pretty good accuracy ratings. I'm not worried about PA.

Nationally, the trackers have narrowed somewhat this week. Obama maintains his highs, but McCain has made up some ground and is looking at numbers he hasn't seen for a month. The relatively static nature of Obama's numbers implies that McCain is picking up a few points from undecideds (I've also seen this in state polls where "leaners" and "without leaners" are published); this it to be expected -- undecideds generally favor the underdog as the election nears. Nate Silver made a pretty good write-up about this during the primaries; he built this tendancy into his model and I borrowed it for mine.

[Schulzz]

22. Faux said before their last national poll it would be bad news for Obama.

And then when the poll came out Obama's lead was widening. I will wait for the poll, and if Obama is still ahead by 8 points or so, it is NOT great news for McCain. The election is in one week...

[MadBadger]

24. Thats cuz their headline was "Obama dogged by associations"

[Deep13]

27. Every dollar McCan't spends in a blue state...

...is a dollar he cannot spend in truly close states.

This is a last, desperate gamble for him.

[aaaaaa5a]

28. Morning Call is 53-41 today...

This was the most accurate PA poll for 2004. As I have said before, that's why it's always best to use the "realclearpolitics.com" average of all the pollsters. This way outliers are weeded out and you get an accurate view of what's going on.


If the Rasmussen poll is Obama plus 8 or 9, that's not "breaking news!"

[beachmom]

29. It was always going to tighten. nt

[aaaaaa5a]

30. Obama was NEVER going to win PA by 15 points!

A 7-8 point victory on election night WILL BE GREAT. You still get the same 21 electoral votes regardless of the margin of victory.

[bklyngrl60]

33. I think this is much more significant....

Obama drew 9,000 people to stand outside in near freezing rain, sleet & wind. It's a nasty nasty day here (I live in South Jersey).

Palin (their biggest draw) and McCain together???

"An official crowd count was not immediately available. However, the Giant Center can accommodate 10,500 people. The facility, home to the Hershey Bears hockey team, was about three-quarters full."

This was an INSIDE event. They are not drawing the crowds they need to in order to have an upset - of course this is just my opinion and I'm going to be calling my ass off between 4 - 8 p.m. today!!!

[democrattotheend]

36. I'm not surprised

I always thought the double-digit lead for Obama in PA was BS. I think he's going to win it but not by double digits...I think it's going to be close, especially since McCain has really been going all in there.

[Fired Up Democrat]

37. im guessing obama plus 8

I am shaking in my boots.

[budkin]

40. There is no way in hell Obama will lose PA... won't happen.

[bushisanidiot]

42. Sounds like he's admitting he's working his poll in McHate's favor,

like we didn't already know that guy is a wacko repuke.