Will the actual election be closer than the current polls?

[DeadElephant_ORG]

If you feel the current polls are misleading, please state the factor(s) that most account for their inaccuracy:

• Bradley Effect (hidden racism)
  
• Electronic vote stealing (election fraud)
  
• Physical theft of paper ballots (election fraud)
  
• Physical theft of registration forms (election fraud)
  
• Registration of ineligible voters (vote fraud)
  
• Caging of valid voter registrations (voter suppression)
  
• Under-supply of working voting machines in partisan districts (voter suppression)
  
• Physical intimidation of Democratic voters (voter suppression)
  
• October Surprise (terrorist attack, war on Iran, rioting in the US, etc.)

Possible reverse factors:

• Under-representation of cell-phone users (younger/new voters)
  
• Reverse Bradley Effect (hidden anti-racism among conservatives)
  
• Voting by ineligible voters (supposed vote fraud by ACORN, et al)
  
• Last-minute Republican defections (hidden dissatisfaction of Republicans with their own party)

other factors?

[ck4829]

1. The media has pushed Bush and Republicans for the last 8 years

No doubt they are pushing McCain and Republicans by making their chances look better as well.

[SoonerPride]

2. Epic collapse.

Under 40% for McLame-o

[Muttocracy]

3. other reverse factor - cell phones not polled? nt

[DeadElephant_ORG]

8. edited to include cell-phones as factor

[democrattotheend]

4. I think it will be closer than the polls show

Especially these ridiculous polls like the Pew Poll showing a 16 point lead. Polls usually tighten towards the end, and some of these polls are just unreal. I think whatever polling # Obama has is around what he will get, maybe a point or two higher, and McCain will get the rest, because his supporters are less enthusiastic and thus less willing to take polls, and some Republicans might be saying they are not voting for him but end up coming home. I also think some of the undecideds may be people who are voting for McCain for the wrong reasons and don't want to admit it...I know that's not a popular theory around here, but I think it's possible. As long as Obama stays at or above 50 I think he's fine...much below that and I will start to worry.

[Schulzz]

5. The polls are all over the place, in my opinion Obama will win the popular vote by about 5-7%.

I don't buy the 3-4% polls, but I also don't buy the 14-16% polls. A 5-7% lead can already result in 350+ EV, if you believe Nate Silver's projection.

[nico818]

6. I think he will do better than the Polls. They aren't accounting for all the young/first time voters

The college and first time voters will be out in FORCE.

[ecstatic]

7. Obama has succeeded in making me hopeful, but I'm far from cocky

I would love a landslide but I'm only at the point where I'm hoping for a win--no matter how big or small.

[jpljr77]

9. Another factor pushing the total toward McCain: youth vote

Time after time after time we hear about how "this election, the youth of America will buck the trend and get out and vote." And EVERY SINGLE TIME they fall right within their anticipated, and meager, range.

This cycle, I believe the youth vote actually will be larger, as do most pollsters and pundits. But I think the turnout will be below newly-inflated expectations.

I hope I'm wrong.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

10. so you think the polls are too optimistic because the youth might not show up.

[jpljr77]

11. I think the statistical modeling used by pollsters is slightly...

"overweighting" the youth turnout, yes.

And of course, I understand that youth are under-represented in polling data for various reasons: cell phones, domicile transience, etc.

I just REALLY hope that they don't get discouraged by extremely long and slow lines (this will be the worst ever) or get taken advantage of by jackass "challengers."

For the record, I'm relatively young (31), and I've always been pissed at the youth vote. I might be totally wrong this time, but there is no reason not to think we'll see significantly different numbers than in, say, 1992...when another young man was running for president.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

13. so if some "jackass challenger" says you can't vote - who decides? What can you do? n/t

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

12. Are the polls reflecting all of the new registered voters?

I know nothing about polling science, but it seems to me that all the young people that are getting newly registered might be something hard to determine, when trying to obtain an accurate sample. The scientific polling organizations might be wildly guessing this year at how many of those individuals will actually come out to vote. Also, the African American vote that might be coming out en masse might be hard to factor-in ahead of time. I don't think this will be a typical election, where previous studies can be relied upon.

[Orsino]

14. We'll never know.

The actual ballots, which would tell the only true story, no longer exist in many cases.

We don't get to find out, because Congress designed it that way.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

15. jeez man. that gives me the shivers.

[Orsino]

16. I remind myself of this a couple of times a day...

...and I still get the shivers sometimes.

Then I think of all the times it doesn't give me the shivers, and I get the shivers. :scared: