The best part about the PEW poll- shift in independent voters since September

[Alhena]

I personally care more about the trend in a particular poll than in the numberical lead, since there's some guesswork involved as far as party weighting. And I especially care a lot about the stated preferences of self-described independents. No weighting is needed with them- just knowing how they break is very important. Here's what the PEW poll shows as far as the preferences of independent voters in 4 pollings since September:

McCain Obama

Sept. 9- 14 45 38

Oct. 9-12 37 45

Oct. 16-19 33 51

Oct. 23-26 31 48

That's your election right there if it holds up, or anything close to it.

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines