What constitutes a landslide?

[TheCowsCameHome]

I'm am NOT counting my chickens before they hatch, but what is the criteria for a winning margin being declared a landslide, in election terms?

It is not time to rest until after the polls close Nov. 4th.

[JoePhilly]

1. According to Bush a "Mandate" is 1.7%.

[onehandle]

2. A Democrat winning by 1 vote. nt

[Tiggeroshii]

7. If the Dems won by 1 vote,

The repukes will go to every effort-legally and nefariously, not to let that vote be counted. Nor the one that ties it.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. three hundred electoral votes... nt

[Zambero]

4. No precise scientific answer, but....

There are two categories of "landslide", one for the popular vote margin and the other for the electoral vote. I have heard it mentioned that a 10% popular vote margin or higher constitutes a landslide. So Reagan's 1980 10-point victory over Carter would have been a "very small L" landslide. For an electoral landslide, a wider margin is necesary, since it's a state-by-state winner-take-all process, and many states are won by narrow margins. I'm not sure, and others will disagree, but I would place the threshold for an electoral landslide at 60%.

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. So generally speaking, 10% a margin would be the threshold.

That's about what I was thinking, without really knowing.

Thanks.

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. That would be 323 EV.

I'd say winning 100 EV more than necessary (370) would be a true "Landslide", with maybe a little-"l" landslide being 320-369. 300 would be a "comfortable victory".

[Two Sheds]

5. with the size of the electorate today....

more than five percentage points is getting into landslide territory.
EC? I say a hundred electoral votes.

[JoePhilly]

8. I'd say if he breaks 300 ... nice round number.

[WeDidIt]

9. 375 EVs or more. n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. 360 would be more than double McCain's 178.

370 would be 100 more than necessary. Either one would qualify, I think.

[laconicsax]

11. Well, let me explain, with the help of the Internet.

According to Wikipedia, a landslide is

A landslide is a geological phenomenon which includes a wide range of ground movement, such as rock falls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows, which can occur in offshore, coastal and onshore environments.

There are also five main causes of a landslide:

-Geological causes, where the composition of the sliding mass plays a significant role.
-Morphological causes, where the geographical nature of the sliding area plays a significant role.
-Physical causes, where sudden natural events ranging from excessive rainfall to volcanic eruption trigger a landslide.
-Human causes, where human activity in an area triggers a slide.
-Electoral causes, where being a terrible candidate for an unpopular incumbent political party results in huge numbers of voters voting against your failed ideology in such numbers that your opponent wins by a wide margin.

A 'wide margin' is of course defined based on party affiliation. If the winner is a Democrat, the margin must be more than 4-1 at which point the winning candidate can declare a mandate. If the winner is a Republican, a mandate can be claimed if the margin is 537 votes in a state of 16 million, one SCOTUS vote, or over 500,000 fewer popular votes nationally.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. lol... Actually,

after thinking about it a bit further, a landslide could clearly be claimed if Obama won more than twice the EV's of McCain. So that'd be 359 EV to 179 EV. I'll go with 360 as a nice round number though.

[laconicsax]

14. Only a landslide if he gets 430 or more. Any less than that and it's just a 'close victory.'

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Yea, I don't expect the MSM to call it a landslide. I'll settle for

'convincing win' and 'clear mandate'.

[grantcart]

16. when your a black guy with an Islamic sounding name? == 271

[Ichingcarpenter]

17. A pictorial of a Landslide for your education

[Awsi Dooger]

18. 5 percent or higher

That would be my estimate. Clinton in '92 won by 5.5% and the media declared it a landslide, which caused Republicans to howl.

If Obama wins by 5% or higher he's almost assured to drag the major electoral prize states along with him, like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. A sweep like that would have every major network and newspaper declaring it a landslide.

[Hekate]

19. McCain giving his concession speech. That's all I ask. nt