Do you guys think the Polls are underestimating Obama's actual lead

[gabeana]

I think so, especially with his GOTV organization

[Zynx]

1. I think they underestimate by 1-2 points. That said I think Obama's lead will appear to be 7 on

election day and he will win by 8.5

[BklynChick]

2. yes

[Wapsie B]

3. Yes I think they're way underestimating Obama's actual lead.

We're talking landslide here. Anything less needs to be investigated.

[sandnsea]

4. In CO, OH, VA, FL

No. I don't think so. I think those states are very close and we've got to have one of them to win. The gigantic lead in some of these other states just don't matter.

[movonne]

6. I think you can put CO firmly in O's corner...

[rzemanfl]

5. Yes. I also think there will be a large "the hell with it" staying

home factor amongst the knuckle draggers and greed ghouls.

[iceman66]

7. I do,

and that is why I think he will win despite the 'Diebold effect'.

[KansasVoter]

8. NO

[WeDidIt]

9. They did in the primaries

so I don't see them changing now.

[kestrel91316]

10. Pretty sure they are. The media is highly motivated to discourage

Obama supporters.

[DJ13]

11. Yes, by 5 - 8%

And Im probably giving the pollster shysters too much benefit of doubt there.

[fujiyama]

12. Many states show pretty major leads at this point for Obama

I mean, assuming they are accurate we have seen shifts in some states of 10+ points from what Kerry got. Many of the Kerry states which were considered battlegrounds are showing double digit leads - MN, WI, IA, MI, PA, NH...

So, I really doubt they can underestimate it by much, though in states with large African American populations - like GA and NC (and even states like MS and LA which aren't considered in play), it's very difficult to gauge African American turnout. So "likely voter" models may be off.

[Vote2008]

13. No!!!

[Elle1993]

14. I don't care if obama is up or down 14 points,I don't trust them

I think he has a lead to big for MSM to report

[mckara]

15. Yes by 2-3%

[murray hill farm]

16. The polls are dependent on land phones.

When most of the population uses cells...especially the younger and more likely Obama supporter. For the last week or more, only those who have not already voted in early voting are polled. Just imagine what a true poll would look like.

[Lisa0825]

17. YES.

I think there will be a Reverse Bradley Effect. I think there are a lot of disaffected Republicans out there who aren't telling anyone but will vote for Obama. On top of that, I think that the new voters can't be accurately polled and will show up in droves!

[CitizenPatriot]

18. the ones that don't take into account newly registered voters

are way off.

here in GA, we registered 400,000 new voters-- mostly dems.

this is why there are all of the "what's going on with georgia" articles in the past few days.

What's going on in Georgia is that this red state can't be taken for granted by GOPPERS anymore.

A nice break in the map:-)

[fed_up_mother]

19. No, I believe they're overestimating, which is why we have to work even harder this week

[rug]

20. Yes. He'll break 400 EVs.

[Two Sheds]

21. No. I think there is a kind of reverse reverse Bradley effect

I drive through affluent white neighborhoods and I never see McCain signs. I can't see these people breaking for Obama in large #'s (fortunately they don't have to). I think it's good news overall in that they don't feel they can publicly back a Republican before the election but I think they'll go for McCain in the booth enough to narrow the margin a bit. I'm calling for a PV margin in favor of Obama between 3 and 4%.

[Dawgs]

22. YES!!

He's up by 11-15 points nationally, not 8.