Obama's Firewall: The Kerry states + Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado

[bluestateguy]

I sense that Obama is now trying to build a firewall around these states, an impenetrable lead in the polls that will make it impossible for the other side to catch up. This firewall would amount to 273 electoral votes, and function as a sort of insurance policy; in case Missouri does not materialize; Ohio gets stolen; the GOP's usual tricks prevail in Florida; we get Bradley Effected in North Carolina; we don't make it in Nevada and Montana and North Dakota drift back to Red.

[Bicoastal]

1. You forgot Virginia!

I know it's strange to say, but Virginia is a blue state now! :bounce:

[DCBob]

6. Gov Tim Kaine on Faux this morning said that if Obama wins VA it's essentially over.

It is nearly impossible for McCain to win if he loses VA. It was very smart to target VA early on. At around 8pm on election night when VA is called for Obama we can begin to celebrate!

[Alhena]

2. Kerry + Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada will get us a tie

and put it to the Democratic House of Representatives (barring a faithless elector scenario). I am confident Obama would win the popular vote in that scenario, which means it will be very hard not to give him the election if the electoral college is tied.

No, we don't want a tie, but Nevada is looking very good so it's good to know it's out there as a "tie" firewall.

[Trajan]

3. Absolutely

Those are the states that win it ....

and for exactly the reasons you mentioned .....

I noticed this yesterday .... Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico will win it ....

[seabeyond]

4. i think exactly those three states were stolen in 2004. i watched the numbers early on with

those states and i think they were for kerry. about 7 in the evening news showed bush in yellow room with family and he saying he will win, and boooom, i those three states go bush and wondered what the fuck, they are stealing it right in front of our face

i think kerry and obama are working closely with what happened in '04

[KansasVoter]

5. But we HAVE to hold PA.

[Overseas]

7. I think Repubs want to steal Colorado because it has lots of fundies.

I think they'll be trying to steal that one. Colorado has some big Christian fundamentalist churches so Republicans may think they can keep the culture war ginned up there enough to cover up a few percentage points flipped in future voting. So they'll want to hold it if at all possible.

Their Secretary of State Mike Coffman was a loyal Republican who has been doing his best to purge people.

North Carolina may have a Reverse Bradley -- the Republican Desertion Effect. Those who will vote O. without admitting it to their conservative neighbors because they know the Republicans favor the rich and McHate doesn't think you're rich til you earn $5 million. (Or at least that was his position until he decided to tell Joe the Plumber that he was rich.)