Whoever wins Ohio wins the election? Dem Rep on MSNBC comment just now. Huh?

[Native]

[SKKY]

1. Do they seem to be trying to "talk up" a tightening of the race, or is it just me?

I don't see a tightening of the race. Sometimes MSNBC doesn't know which side of the fence they want to be on.

[dana_b]

3. it's not just you

ALL the outlets are talking about the polls tightening and the race getting closer.

[Occam Bandage]

5. Despite that being the opposite of what the polls are actually saying.

[BlooInBloo]

4. And DUers are predictably following suit.

[Trajan]

9. Considering how poorly you treat DUers ...

I get the impression you dont like many of us ....

[BlooInBloo]

12. That's nice.

[VeraAgnes]

21. Well said.

O8)

[AnotherMother4Peace]

26. I need to agree with you.

[VeraAgnes]

20. Ohio senator Sherrod Brown,

Ohio Democratic Party Leader both have said that as Ohio goes, goes the election. This is what history has also proven.

[dana_b]

2. I heard that too

okaaaaayyy.... I thought it was going to take more than JUST Ohio or JUST Florida this year. Do any other states even exist? Why don't we just forget voting unless you live in Ohio?

[Dawgs]

6. Stupid. Obama can win Kerry states + VA and ONE of 8 other states & win without Ohio.

Kerry + VA +

Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Nevada
OR Indiana

= >270

[saltpoint]

7. There is other math to dispute that claim, but I think we'll take Ohio

this time.

[Trajan]

8. There are a number of possible permutations that would find Obama at the top ...

Many of those possible combinations do not include Ohio in the Obama column ... and STILL leads to Obama winning ....

I wont go through the different possibilities : Feel free to go through the variations yourself here :

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

You can change the status of any state by left clicking over the state ... Have fun ....

[Native]

17. Thanks! Didn't know we could mess with changing the status of the states.

[Trajan]

18. Yeah ... It makes it easy to recalculate the possible combinations

Great thing is: It is VERY easy to find the path to a win for Obama ....

It is exceedingly difficult to find a path for McCain ....

Damned near impossible ...

[suston96]

10. That is why all the "investigations" into new Ohio (mostly Democratic) registrations......nt

[Motown_Johnny]

11. maybe he meant PA and got confused... but even that isn't really true

even Chuck Todd has spelled out a path to 270 for Obama without PA, OH or FL

[VeraAgnes]

13. Yes, that is true.

History has set precedence to this needed vote.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

23. History doesn't mean crap. This is 2008.

Obama has zillions of winning combinations without Ohio.
TN has voted with the winner all but two times in the last 70 years, but it would be stupid to say that as TN goes so goes the nation. There are shifts over time and Ohio has shifted more conservative than the country as a whole.

Obama will do 5 points better nationally than in OH. That means if Obama wins by 4 points he will lose Ohio, but still easily win the electoral college. I personally think Obama will carry OH, but that is ABSOLUTELY AND DEFINITELY NOT where the election is going to be decided.

[Stagecoach]

14. Which is why I think

Media outlets on election night will be able call certain states in Obama's favor, but they purposely won't, in order to "hold the audience". Let's remember, they've purposely sold ad time for election night coverage....and the longer they can keep Obama under 270 the longer they have people watching.

[POAS]

15. In part it is to avoid

complacency. Keep the voters and the troops motivated to GOTV.

[Smuckies]

16. I hope not..

Because Ohio is anyone's game.

[Genevieve]

19. Ratings, ratings. nt

[LiberalHeart]

22. They say that because Ohio has been wrong only twice in 108 years.

Edited to add link to info re this:

http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081026/NEWS09/810260332

[Native]

24. Ah hah!

[Hippo_Tron]

25. There also used to be a saying "As Maine goes, so goes the nation"

And then in 1936 it was changed to "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont". This isn't like any election in the past 108 years.