PENNSYLVANIA and VIRGINIA are the key to victory!!

[Dawgs]

Early on there are only two states that everyone needs to watch; Pennsylvania and Virginia.

If Obama wins those two, where he now leads by 7.0(RCP) in Virginia and 10.8(RCP) in Pennsylvania, he will only be five short of a victory.

There are no signs of him losing any of the other Kerry states(a new NH poll shows Obama leading by 15). Also, I'm not including Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado; where Obama has held the lead throughout the general election. Iowa appears, as it always has been, to be a lock for Obama.

So, if Obama wins PA and VA he will only need to win Iowa(7 EVs), Missouri(11), Colorado(9), New Mexico(5), Nevada(5), Ohio(20), North Carolina(15), or Florida(27). He is currently leading in every one of these states. Indiana is currently a toss-up. You can visually see all of these states in the map below.

http://photos-d.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-snc1/genericv2b/1211/74/01AwcA9jEaBPsAAAADAAAAAAAAAAA:.png

[bookman]

1. Agree on PA and VA..

..add Iowa (a huge lead) and it's done.

[Dawgs]

2. Agree, but I didn't want to add Iowa to show how easy it will be with Obama winning PA and VA.

I personally think he will win PA, VA, OH, NC, and even GA. But, to try and make it easy on election night, I came up with the least amount of states to watch to see a victory.

[tekisui]

3. If Obama wins PA, it's over. mcPOW has no path to victory without PA.

VA will indicate a big win, as would NC, MO, or FL.

[stratomagi]

4. Actually I'm looking for returns in only 2 states the night of the 4th.

VA and NC. PA is not a swing state, and will go blue regardless...but since the east coast will come in first and if Obama captures both, then in my mind the race is over and we have our 44th president.

[Dawgs]

5. That's fine. You're doing basically what I'm saying.

I would say your thoughts are even more optimistic; because if Obama wins VA it's over. He'll win one of the others - certainly Iowa.