Honestly, who cares about Polls?

[Haole Girl]

Polls said John Kerry would win in 2004. I remember the Zogby poll, days before the 2004 election, vividly.

How can we trust any polls?

How?

:shrug:

[BlooInBloo]

1. (facepalm)

[Haole Girl]

3. Ok. Tell me. Educate me...

are they accurate? Then what happened in 2004??

[Bicoastal]

15. Quit obsessing over Zogby. One "bad" poll out of so many good ones is A-OK.

[hisownpetard]

2. I only clicked on this because I thought it was a poll.

Oh, well...

[Haole Girl]

4. lol!

:hi:

[Sodan]

5. Just GOTV.

[Haole Girl]

19. Thanks

:hi:

[mirror wall]

Have you read through fivethirtyeight.com?

I suggest you do so. In various articles, the site author debunks the notion that polls have no impact on reality. www.fivethirtyeight.com

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Haole Girl]

14. Wow...

nothing like a fresh personal attack. Jeez. Thanks.
:eyes:

[Kajsa]

23. That was uncalled for.

She has a concern based on what happened in 2004.

WTH?

[Haole Girl]

10. Oh, don't get me wrong. I know all too well they have impacts...

and that's a large part of what annoys me right now.

[4_Legs_Good]

6. The Kerry polls were late in coming. He was behind almost always

from the moment of the Swiftboat attacks on. Ocassionally he'd come back a little, but it was GWB's to lose.

This time we've been ahead since a couple days after the Republican convention, and with only about a week off when we weren't ahead.

Scrub through dates on Electoral-vote.com and compare us with 4 years ago - where we only lost by, what, 40,000 votes in Ohio. Things are looking MUCH better this year.

David

[Haole Girl]

8. This is what I remember:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/000155.php

[4_Legs_Good]

22. Yeah, I remember that too...

and Zogby on the Daily show the night before the election spouting the same stuff.

But my point is that this was the last minute prediction, not the general feeling for weeks leading up to the election. It's been ours to lose essentially since Obama got the nomination, and we only dipped into the negative for a few days after the Republican hatefest. So I think the treds are still all pointing our way.

We'll see...

David

[Frumious B]

9. Most polls consistently showed Bush leading Kerry in 2004.

What happened is that people cherry-picked polls. Any poll that showed Kerry tied or leading slightly was treated like manna from heaven and posted a zillion times. This year it is the right wing blogosphere that is doing the cherry-picking. Go back and look up the actual polling history of the Bush/Kerry race. You'll be surprised at how your memory plays tricks on you.

[Haole Girl]

11. link:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/000155.php

[Frumious B]

16. That's cherry-picking one pollster who showed the results you wanted.

Here's a counter-example.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[Meshuga]

12. I agree and...

Who gives a crap about national polls anyway? We can be very much ahead but the electoral college is what matters.

[Haole Girl]

13. I sincerely hope people still go vote on election day...

no matter what any media outlet predicts.

[Donkeykick]

17. The only poll I care about...

is the one I know that I'm voting in. ;)

[Haole Girl]

18. Thanks. Hope more people feel as you do

What is beginning to worry me is the thought some people might get overconfident and think their vote isn't needed... or that it won't make a difference. Especially with the media attention on poll numbers. Guess that was my point (very well missed, I might add) here. :hi:

[slackmaster]

20. The same people who make the most obtuse posts raging about what's on TV seen to care most

They seem to be hungry for input.

[cwydro]

21. I hear ya there - I don't trust polls at all.

I am not getting my hopes up too far; neither will I be depressed in advance.

Only time will tell.