Can someone explain to me why NH is a close race?

[MJkcj]

This might seem a little random but my high school daughter is doing a school project and she needs to pretend she is a Mccain supporter in NH and has to write a letter to a local newspaper persuading other NH voters why they should vote for McCain... I am at loss to help her because i do not know enough about NH and what their "local" issues are. (for example I get why VA is a tight race because there are a lot of military bases and those people are so conservative. But NH?)

She knows all the reasons why i support Obama and can't stand the McCain/Palin ticket but she needs to present the "other side". I tried to help her research but them I thought people on this board is are so knowledgeable maybe you can offer insight into what drives a NH resident

[PBS Poll-435]

1. NH is the most purple among the very blue Northeast

It cost Gore the election.

And Sununu beat Shaheen in 2002.

[LynnTheDem]

2. Can anyone explain why this is a close race PERIOD.

92% of Americans say we`re badly on the wrong track.

So 42% want 4 more years of it.

:wow:

[grantcart]

21. Well if you accept 30% of the country as being racist to the point of

never voting for a black candidate or a democrat under any circumstance, that leaves 70% as a 'winnable number'


If you add in non racist people who vote simply on the issue of right to life you are left with about 50% of the population

Obama basically has to win 90% of the population that is not an outright racist or voting only on 'right to life'.

That's what keeps it close.

[Thrill]

3. NH has always been a McCain fan. Since he ran in 2000

having said that. Don't most polls have Obama up six or more there? Thats not close

[WinkyDink]

4. NH hates taxes.

[MJkcj]

10. Bingo

So its state of mostly older people who hate taxes and big government and still buy into the old argument that Democratic = tax and spend... at least now I understand where they are coming form even if i know they are WRONG! thanks for the insight

[WritingIsMyReligion]

12. And yet its meal tax and rooming taxes are outrageous, are they not?

NH is selectively tax-free and then outrageously tax-heavy in other areas. It all balances out. Nonetheless, there are some pretty loony libertarian types in NH, that's for sure. :D

[Warren Stupidity]

18. Property taxes business taxes and on and on

We have the same expenses as our neighbors with progressive income taxes, so we have to raise just as much revenue per capita, but we do it primarily through huge and very regressive property taxes, which in turn has created a long standing mess with educational funding equity.

[WritingIsMyReligion]

22. I forgot about NH property taxes and their astounding rate there.

:D

[featherman]

5. The McCain brand is well known in NH from his many weeks of campaigning there

in 2000 and 2008 primaries. Like Iowa, it was retail politics that covered many, many small towns in a small state so I think there is both a history of personal contact with and some lingering affection for McCain.

NH will vote Dem but the margin will likely be the narrowest in the New England states.

[Gore1FL]

6. NH is an early primary state that McCain won twice

He campaigned for months in both campaigns. McCain has personally met a large number of people in that state--and did so before his campaign was run into the ground by strategists who applied the Atwater/Rover/Schmidt playbook.

The approach I would take, is that she is supporting him because of personal reassurances he gave her in 2000 and 2008, and then spend a paragraph bemoaning how tragic it is that she knows the real McCain and cannot understand why his campaign isn't effectively communicating his real personality to the nation at large.

That way,she gets to write the a supportive piece, and give McCain and his campaign a smack-down at the same time.

[MJkcj]

9. love that. thank you.

I think her teacher will enjoy that too. he is so obvously for Obama but has to play it even handed in the classroom and not show a bias... this way we cna have a little fun with the project

[Warren Stupidity]

7. McCain is pretty popular here

He has run in the primaries several times and done quite well.

But I think we should be OK. The race is always close here, we are a swing state, and just a short time ago we were a reliable Republican state.

[MJkcj]

13. Yeah it looks like most maps have NH in the blue column

so I guess Obama is going to prevail despite McCain's popularity... lets hope so!

[WritingIsMyReligion]

8. If New England is blue, then NH is purple.

A lot of libertarians and even Ayn Rand-ish types abound in the "Live Free or Die" state. It's sort of like taking northern Maine, adding 1.3 million people or so, and calling it its own state. The McCain of 2000 was very popular there, and I assume some people still associate the McCain brand with that incarnation of BoxBoy, despite the fact that John McCain version 2008 is a nut and nothing like the "maverick" of 2000. Like Maine, NH likes to play at being a "maverick" state, although Maine is much more sparsely populated and does not have the southern cities--Manchester, et al--with their many issues that NH does. Maine also DOES have a considerable "latte liberal" contingent in the south that I would say is missing from much of NH.

Nonetheless, it IS New England, and its proximity to both MA and VT, two comparatively bleedingly liberal states, means that it can't quite escape that influence. As McCain '08 further distances himself from McCain '00, going into religious nuttery and downright anti-intellectualism that doesn't play well with the Randians and general libertarians, the state has swung back to blue after flirting with red earlier in the electoral season.

On Edit: It's more like 1.3 million in NH, not 1.4

[MJkcj]

16. thank you - this help a lot

this is great background for her to use on the project. thank you so much!

[WritingIsMyReligion]

20. NH is an interesting, if sometimes frustrating, state. Quite stubborn.

It's basically the shopping mall for Mainers and Bay Staters when it comes to liquor, appliances, etc. because of the lack of sales tax, while ME and MA have more considerable sales taxes. Fireworks are also legal there for the general public to buy, and every 4th of July there's a rash of Mainers trying to smuggle them back across the border, with "trying" being the operative word (state police caravans all up and down the borders).

Glad we all could be of use! :)

[QueenOfCalifornia]

11. I wouldn't be able to help your daughter

since I know the McCain straight talk express is an epic fail.

I guess she needs to get the RW talking points and use them.... poor thing. I hope she doesn't have a breakdown...

[insanity]

14. It's already been said, but TAXES

[No Elephants]

15. A couple of thoughts. I have listened to people who retired from NY to NH. They actually believe

the maverick meme and the slash the budget meme. So, they see McCain as a fairly liberal guy who will not spend their monney. Another thing.

Around 2004, there was a religious group that actually was having it's adherents to re-settle to NH, precisely to make it more red Again, I saw these people being interviewed on TV at the time, so I have no links.

NH is traditionally an anti-tax state. Now, no one likes taxes, but that is central to NH's identity. Because it has no sales tax, people from other New England states drive there to shop.


Try googling NH Demographics and NH Politics.

[Robyn66]

17. Speaking as a resident of NH

There are a lot of people who think that McCain doesn't mean what he is saying and doing in this election and they still think he is the McCain of 2000. I didn't like the McCain of 2000 either although I didn't think he was a rotten human being-guess I was wrong. As for taxes- they are wierd about it up here. They freak about the idea of a sales tax or income tax but we are killed with property taxes which are supposed to fund ALL of our public services so our schools are over burdened and our fire and police department work out of buildings that should be condemed! So go figure! I don't know why anyone in NH supports McCain except there are a LOT of Social COnservatives up here- at least in my town.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. It's not.

Obama will win NH by 5-10 points.