Front cover of the NYT--Schmidt claims Gore was this far behind Bush in 2000...

[Bicoastal]

...one week before the election.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24mccain.html

“The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.”

Any credibility to that? The Times doesn't seem to question it.

[book_worm]

1. Actually there is some credibilty to that, I'm afraid.

Gore was running about seven-points behind Bush in a Gallup tracking poll around this time (or a little earlier) I will find the link. But this election is so much different than that one.

Here's a link from Oct 27, 2000 Gallup tracking and actually Bush is up 52-39
http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/

[Drunken Irishman]

2. But what were the average of polls?

[book_worm]

7. Actually it was worse than I thought on Oct 27 Bush led Gore 52-39 in Gallup tracking

While not a prediction of the voters' choice in November, Friday's results show Bush garnering 52 percent of the vote and Gore drawing 39 percent. The survey of 851 likely voters was conducted October 24-26 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/

But again, a very different election and it went back and forth between Bush and Gore all season unlike this season.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Those Gallup numbers were crazy.

I mean, way off. One day they'd have Gore up 10 and the next Bush up 2.

Very unreliable compared to the current tracking poll.

[CreekDog]

16. and Bush had a DUI revealed on election eve

and Bush was busy in California before the election when he should have been in Florida.

[Lithos]

4. The internals were different as I recall

And who was "polled" was extremely questionable as well. All of the games you see where they misrepresent groups were in full force back then.

L-

[Curtland1015]

3. Check this out...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/info/polls-2000.html

Obama seems to be in a much better position to me.

[tblue]

6. Yeah. Much better.

Thanks.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Looking at those numbers.

Bush held an average lead of 46-44, or a two point margin.

Not even close to where we are right now.

[tblue]

5. John McCain is no Al Gore.

Don't get caught up in this. We just need to get the vote out.

[pot luck]

8. Apparently not. Here's an article on this topic.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/24/should-gore-s-2000-comeback-give-mccain-hope.aspx

Bush led Gore by an average of 3.5% not the 7% or 8% that Obama is leading McCain by.

[book_worm]

11. that's true, here are some other poll numbers from October 2000

CNN/TIME POLL: Oct. 4-5 (2000)

Bush 47%
Gore 45%
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL: Oct. 6-8 (2000)

Bush 52%
Gore 42%
Nader 4%
POA (Rasmussen) POLL: Oct. 8-10 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 40%
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%
Undecided: 9%

GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL: Oct. 11 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 45%
GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL: Oct. 14 (2000)

Bush 48%
Gore 44%
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL: Oct. 16 (2000)

Bush 48%
Gore 43%

ZOGBY POLL: Oct 16 (2000)

Bush 44%
Gore 42%
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%
NEWSWEEK POLL: Oct 16 (2000)

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

http://boards.msn.com/MSNBCboards/thread.aspx?threadid=811347&boardsparam=PostID%3D23154165

[CreekDog]

12. No, but then again, Bush had a DUI revealed the weekend prior to Election Day

which kind of complicated things.

oh, that and Bush tried for states he had no business winning --this is something Obama is not doing. his media team is trying for Georgia and North Dakota, but the candidate is in true battlegrounds like CO, OH, VA and NM, unlike Bush who actually visited the Bay Area, yes, the Bay Area right before the 2000 election (that didn't go over so well actually, even out in Pleasanton).

[anonymous171]

13. State polls are the only thing that matters.

[fujiyama]

14. I have heard that the Gallup poll was incredible volatile that year

Obama has some very strong leads this time - The Pew poll is the one I'll use because they basically had Gore a point ahead in their final poll in '00. This time, their numbers reflect other major pollsters - Obama over10 points ahead.

Could things change in a week? Sure. But we need a major event to change what happens. Also, more people are voting early than ever before. We'll see how things play out. I am feeling pretty optimistic about this thing overall...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Res Ipsa Loquitur

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm