AP Poll "Tightens" -- Set Up for a Stolen Election (see how;)

[autorank]

They're "seeding" the airwaves and Internet with the fiction of a "too close to call"
election. It's bogus, don't believe it.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0810/S00367.htm

Setup for a Stolen Election
AP Poll "Tightens" to a Point

Michael Collins

The Associated press came out with a remarkable poll Thursday. It claimed that the presidential race had tightened from the consistent leads Obama has shown over the past weeks to become one of those "too close to call" national elections. Their poll, conducted by German polling firm GfK, showed 44% for Obama and 43% for McCain.

How could this be? In the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls, Oct 24, Obama's average lead is 7.5%. The four national polls conducted on the same days as the AP poll show an average 9.2% Obama lead. The polls after the AP "tightening" effort shows an 8.7% Obama lead. Clearly the AP-GfK poll is an exception or outlier, as those are called.

Yet the AP presents this as news, not opinion.

Snip

The built in bias of the AP poll is obvious when one reviews the internals. 45% of the 800 person likely voter sample described themselves as "born again or evangelical" Christians. The remaining 55% said no (AP-GfK p. 24). AP should have known that it's 2006 exit poll showed that 36% of respondents were born again, a much lower percentage than included in their McCain friendly poll of yesterday. Also, AP should have known the 2006 exit poll the group had a 60% preference for Republican candidates over Democrats.

The election magic for McCain was complete before the presidential preferences were even sampled. The over representation of Christians and the born agains in the sample guaranteed a preference for McCain.

Link: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0810/S00367.htm

[Mme. Defarge]

1. Back in 2004

I recall someone proposing a theory of how the election was stolen, and I thought it invloved electronically changing vote tallies via AP. I don't understand this at all, and must have mis-interpreted what the writer was saying. Any thoughts on this?

[Me.]

2. They Can Try

But their playbook is being ripped to shreds.

[autorank]

12. They are like rabid terriers

But there's no solution.

In this case, the claim is so absurd and the arguments are so weak, they'll take heat form the polling
professionals. My favorite part of the analysis is Poll Analysis, page 18.

There are four sets of responses on the question -

Are Obama's/Biden's attacks on McCain mostly fair/mostly unfair - 54% avg MOSTLY FAIR

Are McCain's/Palin's attacks on McCain mostly fair/mostly unfair - 55% avg MOSTLY UNFAIR

So how do you gat a poll that squeezes Obama in a serious way and, at the same time, shows that
the sample is far more sympathetic to the attacks of Obama on McCain and far less sympathetic of
McCain's attacks.

That make no sense. There are other arguments in the article but this is my favorite given the axiom
that U.S. voters hate negative and attack campaign strategies.

[Me.]

28. Are You Doing An SNL With The Terrier Bit?

Where they meant terrorists? Otherwise terriers want to know what you have against them.

“The AP poll is not only an outlier, it’s just preposterous!” Zogby told the Herald last night.

[EC]

3. Well, if we figure that the 45% born agains are also

included in the 60% Repub leaning, couldn't we also figure that at least 20% of those leaning Repub are for Obama since they are running even? Hmmmmm

[MagickMuffin]

4. Thankfully there are other polls that shows otherwise

The AP has become extremely RW and no one should take them seriously. They seem to be the only ones reporting it as too close to call.

I do agree that this has worked in the past. But NOT this time. The Democrats are turning out in record numbers.

:hi: autorank:

[autorank]

14. Ola!

You're right. It won't work this time because people in the polling community will kick up a storm
and the trouble causers like us will say what the mainstream folks can't.

If this is not a half backed and randomly argued presentation by AP and the German partner, then
they've got a motive.

Sometimes, with all it's contradictions, it reminds me of an old Twilight Zone episode called
"To Serve Man"

(re old stuff, but new also - saw Jil Simpson speak at the National Press Club Wed night)

[MagickMuffin]

22. Interesting tidbit about the German company doing the polling

This is kinda off topic but thought you would find it interesting none the less.

McCain mentioned in every debate the Citizens Against Government Waste. I decided to do some research on this company. It turns out the founder is J. Peter Grace.



Some background on Grace:

***********************************************

J. Peter Grace & Operation Paperclip

Considering that the Newcomen Society and CFR to which J. Peter Grace belonged were branches of Cecil Rhodes's eugenics club, The Round Table , it is not out of character that Grace would be involved in Project Paperclip -- a post World War II CIA arrangement to remove classified information from dossiers so that former SS members and 900+ Nazi scientists could emigrate to the U. S. Hundreds of war criminals would find employment within government agencies and companies such as W. R. Grace chemical company whose president was J. Peter Grace.Considering that the Newcomen Society and CFR to which J. Peter Grace belonged were branches of Cecil Rhodes's eugenics club, The Round Table , it is not out of character that Grace would be involved in Project Paperclip -- a post World War II CIA arrangement to remove classified information from dossiers so that former SS members and 900+ Nazi scientists could emigrate to the U. S. Hundreds of war criminals would find employment within government agencies and companies such as W. R. Grace chemical company whose president was J. Peter Grace.
...
The Covert Action Information Bulletin describes the manner in which Radio Liberty, under the supervision of Grace and other prominent figures, functioned as a front for ex-Nazis: In 1950, the American Committee for Liberation from Bolshevism was created. The trustees included J. Peter Grace, Charles Edison, William Henry Chamberlain, H. J. Heinz II, Isaac Don Levine , and Eugene Lyons.
...
From 1982-95, J. Peter Grace (CFR) was Chairman of the Advisory Committee of AmeriCares, which included William E. Simon (CFR), Treasury Secretary under Richard Nixon who was backed by another Knight of Malta Elmer H. Bobst, the CEO of Warner Lambert.

**********************************************************

If you would like more info check out these links: A lot of articles at the link

http://www.zoominfo.com/Search/ReferencesView.aspx?PersonID=13151831


John McCain has some very unusual friendships. And yet Obama needs to be investigated.:eyes:

[azmouse]

5. They won't steal the election.

Book it. Obama will win.

[ihavenobias]

6. I agree but I'm cautiously optimstic...emphasis on "cautiously" n/t

[leftynyc]

9. I can't allow myself such optimism

As Toby on West Wing said - "Are you trying to tempt the whatever from high atop the thing?!!". I was crushed in 2000 and 2004.

[azmouse]

16. I can understand how you feel that way after the last two presidential elections.

I wish I could share how I feel with everyone here.
It's just this sense of calm optimism this year that I've never felt before.
Everything will be alright.

[autorank]

17. Well, I like your optimism but calling these folks out when the get sketchy is part of the deall

It wasn't in 20004 but was in 2006, which I think and have been told, helped put a spotlight on
the notion that elections do get stolen. It looked like about 10 states were lost that had no reason
to be lost, lacked an explanation. NM1 Heather Wilson is caught removing a social services file on her
husband a few days before the election, she's behind by a significant amount against a competent
candidate, and she wins by around 1% or less. There were others like that where there was no
way to explain a continual lead that evaporated.

Of course 2000 was stolen. Gore one and 2004 was as well, just with more finesse.

I've seen Obama's voter intimidation bill and also the letter from his campaign to Mukasey. Those are
excellent "notices" that he knows. I'd expect to him strategically drop some huge hint that he knows
what has gone on in the past. The Democrats can't do anything without it like in Ohio where 3rd
parties, valiant as they were in defending our rights, didn't have the push with the court to make a
real challenge possible.

The opponents are brutal. Their leadership has contempt for democracy here and abroad. Time to keep
the heat on.

Do you know anything beyond what I've mentioned about Obama, specifically related to awareness of
potential problems? The two actions I mentioned are excellent but I'm always happy to hear more good
news.

[grantcart]

7. Really? since there are no national elections but 51 state elections

how does a national poll have any effect on particular states and setting up the now dozens of teams that will have to go county by county in dozens of states to steal the election.

[autorank]

18. What was the point of the article on the Emory University Pollster

that you posted, I think it was you. Found it, your post
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7572289

It's in the article but briefly, the poll was either poorly done or serves some tactical purpose.
Since AP and the German firm are quite capable, it's not likely this was a big mistake. This fits
with the network news mantra that this will be too close to call (how would they now for the prior 8
or so weeks. You create the atmosphere for an event and then when it happens, it seems "real."

The Bush strategy of mentioning "Saddam" - "911" - "Saddam" - "911) created an effective association,
i.e., "reality" between the two to facilitate the invasion. Evidence showed up to justify that, only
to turn out to be bogus while real evidence was present to negate the "911" lie and the claims of
WMD. Once the road is built, in terms of public perception, then the technicians can do their
thing. But then again, maybe AP and the Germans just had a bad day, but I doubt it.

[LSK]

8. in which state??? VA? CO? MO? IN? OH? FL? NC?

Because McCain needs ALL OF THE ABOVE.

[Marsala]

19. ALL OF THEM! HE'LL STEAL ALL OF THEM!

And California and Connecticut and Massachusetts! It will be explained as a backlash against gay marriage!

We're doomed! They'll steal EVERYTHING! And there's NOTHING we can do, at all! We need at least a 10, no, a 20 point lead!

[autorank]

20. The reason the poll is interesting is the evidence that it's so wrong

by external and internal analysis. It's really screwy unless they're hyping drama to sell papers or
working to create the perception of something that is not taking place.

Montana - within reach, competitive.

North Dakota - tie, a chance to win.

These are states that have not gone for a Democrat in decades.

They are in trouble and I hope McCain just takes a few laps, collects some cheers, and backs off
the nastiness.

The "voter fraud" emphasis is also disturbing. Election fraud has been around for two centuries but
for the past 150 or so years, it has been primarily about race and suppressing and disenfranchising
blacks, Latinos, and the poor.

[msallied]

10. Oh jesus fucking christ. Does this help anything? At all?

[WI_DEM]

11. It's the only poll that shows it that close.

[autorank]

25. 2 of 16 majors had it at 1% the rest were 4% to 14% Oama

The reason it's important is that AP placed it on it's main wire as news, even though it was an outlier with weak support. What's up with that. If they're helping build the argument that it's a close election with nonsense like this, they're informed by no less than John Zogby. Call them out from the internet sites to the nightly news. This poll is just a mess. Click on one of the links and you can read the analysis from AP/GfK.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. IT WON'T BE STOLEN!

Jesus Christ, will people stop pushing this bullshit. I'm tired of defeatism here.

Yeesh, the AP doesn't have that much fucking power. :eyes:

And if the AP did, why can't they get every other major pollster to fall in line?

[autorank]

21. Why do you think it won't be stolen. Wishing won't make it so.

Gore won, very few rally stood with him to fight for that victory and look where we are.

It sure looks like Kerry won, but there wasn't the will to fight.

Now it's a matter of pointing this stuff out in real time, as is done with all the lousy machines
and with the massive race based strategies like the "voter fraud" fiction.

It's not OK that the theme "too close to call" showed up at all as a prediction on the network/cable
news shows. This is an extension & justification of that. It's a lousy poll and only 1 other of
16 around the time it was conducted agrees. So why did they proceed. Propaganda sure sounds like
a good candidate.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Gore didn't win.

Kerry didn't win.

They lost because they ran stupid campaigns. They put all their chips into two states that COULD be stolen and failed to defend other states needed to win the presidency.

Had Gore carried his home state of Tennessee, he would have won. He didn't. He lost his home state. Had Gore won New Hampshire, he would have been president. He didn't. Florida was only an issue because the campaign put everything into Florida. It was a dumb move.

Four years later and you have the same problems, but this time with Ohio. Had Kerry won Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico/Nevada, he'd be president right now. Instead, he focused on Florida & Ohio, that was it.

The biggest difference, of course, is the fact Gore and Kerry never held sizable leads in either states on election day. In fact, Kerry was losing both Ohio and Florida the day of the election in an average of polls according to RealClear Politics.

Obama is up 8-15 points in PA.

[autorank]

33. Gore lacked sufficient justices

The lousy campaign emerges based on the reported results. Gore won the popular vote. In Florida, a recount was interrupted by the Supreme Court. Lost in that shuffle was the fact that 50,000 voters, legally registered, were "cleansed" from the rolls before the election. Around half were black and, 70% or so showed up to vote and were sent home. But forget that for a moment. Just look a the absence of a recount, the denial of election challenges locally in black voting districts, the 200,000 ballots thrown away, mostly black precincts. It was systematic.

Bush won on massive cheating up and down the system. Why push the blame off on the two Dem. candidates when it's not about their performance in terms of clean elections, it's about the system working for citizens, us, the people who are to be served by that system.

We could argue over the theft of 2004 for a while. If you're interested, take a look at http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00165.htm. It's not speculation, it's using the data that supported the 2004 reported vote and finding how that exit poll data had to be stretched, among other things. Few surprises.

Obama has made some very good moves on blunting fraud, particularly his campaign lawyers letter to Mukasey, which I see as a stroke of genius.

Independent of good or bad campaigns, deliberate misinformation by the folks with the monopoly on news distribution. Zogby will peel the bark off of this one. His negative comments, quite harsh, are a first in my memory for pollsters, usually a reserved bunch.

I believe that Obama has the turnout and numbers to crush McCain. I also know that there are people out there with zero respect for democracy, unless it serves their ends - Bush, Cheney, and their donors. Where there's a will there are multiple ways.

[nc4bo]

15. Not. This. Time. nt

[glitch]

24. The riggers must be furious with the constant misfires of the McKKKlan campaign.

Very difficult to make any of this appear semi-plausible.

[autorank]

26. glitch,my sentiments

It's barely plausible, even under the influence or with a bump on the head.

But you know, they do think were' fools so that emboldens them.

[glitch]

27. It is remarkable what they find plausible, isn't it? And the corpse media happily babbles along.

I'd ask what can they be thinking but I doubt thought enters into it all. Sigh.

[autorank]

29. Right. It looks like they're losing their touch but it's really just a lot less

people paying attention to them. But here's double good news just for you...don't tell any one:

Zogby (you've seen this)
http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1127236&srvc=2008campnews&position=5

The numbers:

# The AP-Gfk poll shows McCain gaining among white voters and those earning less than $50,000 a year, with the GOP nominee hitting paydirt with his “Joe the Plumber” tax talk.

# A George Washington University Battleground Poll also has the two locked in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to McCain’s 47 percent.

# The Zogby poll, a three-day rolling average of 1,208 likely voters surveyed nationwide, has Obama gaining ground day by day. “These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers,” Zogby said.

# Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll had the margin at 11 points in the Democrat’s favor.

Second one

Washington Post print edition, huge headline -

Obama Mopping the Floor with McCain in Polls (or something like that)

It's not in the online edition but lots of people read it.

Here's their summary page. If they're not pushing the AP deal, that's great news. And they're not.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/politics/polls/?sub=AR

& a pic of me and my wife

[glitch]

30. Talk about embarassing! AP doesn't even realize it lost it's credibility years ago.

"The AP doesn’t engage in food fights," said Paul Colford, the AP’s director of media relations. "We stand by our polls." :rofl:

Oh, it's tough being a rigger these days. And as for the dirty tricksters, crikey! You can't even go a half a day without being debunked. Love that Net!

& Hubby & I having a moment:

Oops! Have I shared too much? (Any excuse to give this photo more exposure)

[triceratops]

31. O/T: Ravens will rip you on Sunday

really interesting observations, tho.

[autorank]

32. I'm going to adopt them as my team,.

I saw them play the Raiders in Baltimore, great sports town, two years ago. What an experience. Great stadium, great stuff going on outside and the staff is really friendly. Entirely differed deal than Redskins Stadium, which is closest to me. We got there early just to hang around and watch the warm ups. Then maybe 10-15 minutes before kick off, Ray Lewis comes into the end zone and begins communicating with a being in the sky. I knew this because he was looking up, talking sort of, and waving his hands around. It was one of the cooler thing I've ever seen an athlete do. Then he dominated the game and you ripped us then.

I went to their camps for a couple of years w/ my father. I was 6-7 and recall vividly that they all seemed like giants, nice ones who might crush me with their huge hands etc. They were through the early 80's but it's been hard times since.

Who knows, maybe we'll buy a ref or two;) keep it close for a quarter. I'm about to start my annual eposide of SPOD, which begins when the Raiders have no chance for the playoffs. (SPOD-seasonal pissed off disorder)

Hope the Ravens do it all this year.