McCain camp is betting the entire campaign on PA ... How plausibe is that they will win PA?

[TheCoxwain]

I know the polls are good .... But I am concerned enough that I am planning to travel to PA to help GOTV ...



How do you feel about it?


Update:

If any one living in the border states wants to signup go here

http://my.barackobama.com/cometoPA

I believe the Obama campaign will possibly arrange housing

[MadinMo]

1. Didn't Ghouliani do that with Florida in the primaries?

[Avalux]

7. Yes he did and we know what that got him - nothing. n/t

[peace13]

2. IN 2004 PA stood with Kerry as Ohio did.

The question is will the votes be counted in PA?

[CatBO]

3. What I don't understand is...

Forget how plausible PA is. If they don't win all the other states that he has to win, PA won't matter a whit. By betting only on PA, they're killing their chances of winning the others.

I am struck by what I read yesterday from a Republican adviser: Republicans are mad because at this point McCain needs to be traveling to states where he can at least boost downticket races, but he refuses to do so. He's not doing anything to help the Republican party, and he's not even doing much to help himself at this point.

I have never seen a campaign so poorly run. I am beginning to earnestly think McCain set out to ruin the Republican party after what happened to him in 2000, and this was his way of doing it. What other explanation is there?

[palintology]

8. Maybe he is simply tired ...

... the poor old man can not keep up with Mooselini.

[Essene]

20. yes, and i think on some level... he enjoys seeing Palin failing

I dont think Mccain likes being told what to do by ANYBODY.

He was forced to pick her.

This is a man who i think sincerely once said he hated her type. And i think he was sincere when he said he hates the types of politics his campaign is currently engaged in.

I think Mccain stopped LEADING his own campaign somewhere back in August.

I dont think he's trying to undermine it or whatever, but i think on some level his anger and indignation over being told he must pander to "the base" has lead him to stop really caring... to perhaps even enjoy the self-destructive nonsense that his campaign now represents.

[man4allcats]

15. An interesting observation...

I hadn't thought of this, but maybe McCain is simply and only intent on getting some payback. On the surface it seems a bit far-fetched, but everyone knows Republicans are nuts by definition. Perhaps McCain really is that crazy.

[Essene]

17. it IS poorly run... and i think Mccain just doesnt care

I think Mccain stopped truly caring the night he was forced to pick Sarah Palin.

There's a self-destructive tone to him, and i think the campaign reflects it.

All bets are on PA because the campaign really has no strategy anymore for Ohio, Florida, etc... and the one thing they agree on is that he has to win PA in the unlikely event that the other states swing his way. I think Mccain realizes that all their tactics are worthless at this point in OH and Florida. He is looking at western/central PA as the last hope.

[Chloroplast]

18. It's easier to contest smaller states if you can carry a Democratic stronghold like PA.

McCain knows that he has lost nearly 10 Bush states and he can't contest each one. He CAN contest Bush states that may go for Obama if he's able to carry a consistently blue state; there's a reason ACORN has played such a huge part of his campaign the past few weeks. Anyone with a wit of sense knows that fake registration cards are weeded out by the County Clerk and other safeguards but he needs to sow those seeds of doubt.

McCain has run a horrible campaign because he is a horrible man. Since he last ran in 2000, he has become a paranoid curmudgeon of a fool; he accuses Republicans that have criticized him of 'betrayal' and 'disloyal' behavior. This isn't a man that needs to be in public office PERIOD. He needs to leave on whatever high note he can find and head into retirement.

[jenmito]

4. He won't "win" it. It's plausible he'll STEAL it, though, which is evidenced by the GOP

filing lawsuits to try to disenfranchise voters, purge voters, etc.

[treestar]

5. The more he concentrates on PA, the fewer votes he will get

The more Phailin talks, the fewer votes they will get. Aiming it all at one state and most of the voters there will be :puke:

Another bad decision by the McDecider.

[KewlKat]

6. Well with the Todd story ....... hmmmm ..............

If it were me, I'd go.

[ecstatic]

14. Ashley was their last hope, and she blew it

forgot her lines or something. :shrug:

[bcoylepa]

9. come to PA

help us to keep it blue

I think we will go blue - I live in rural Bradford Cty - not gonna break for Obama here - but I believe the state is gonna vote for Obama
but I do wish we had paper ballots or verified voting machines

[zbdent]

10. Murtha was right about Western PA (I'm from that area originally)

it was just another bit of faux outrage (like Kerry calling the troops stupid in that commencement speech that hardly anybody saw the jokes in their entirety), because the light was shown on the truth ...

[man4allcats]

11. Re: "How plausible is it that they will win PA?"

I'm certainly no expert on this, but if Intrade's predictions mean anything, I would say their odds in PA are not good. Check out the map at the aforementioned link. Of course, as DUer peace13 noted up-thread, the votes don't mean much if the count is fraudulent. Then again, we all know the number one tool for combating election fraud - massive voter turnout. They can't steal it if the vote is overwhelming.

[Larry in KC]

12. I think it's just a plausible way to appear to be trying for the win.

They need some "path to victory," no matter how unlikely. No campaign ever officially gives up, no matter how long their shot grows.

This Pennsylvania focus is plausible enough that it has some of us worried, even if it is drawing to an inside straight (more like holding a 2 and a 6, betting all your chips, and hoping to draw a 3, 4, and 5). It makes it seem like they may just know something, rather than spreading bits of their dwindling resources into 10 states, all of which they're trailing in.

To further the analogy, it's conceivable that they could hit that very-unlikely inside straight, only to find that Obama's holding a full house all along.

[Cosmocat]

16. YEP ...

same anology I have used - BO is holding two pairs, and might get the full house even if McCain makes his inside straight ...

[Larry in KC]

19. Great minds, Cosmocat!

I promise I didn't crib it from you. Seems to fit well with McCain's known weakness in this area. Fun to beat someone at his own game, too (I know he apparently likes craps better, but this analogy's more fun).

I think Barack's already quietly holding that full house.

[Essene]

21. Dear Larry in KC... not all of us play poker

but i think i got your analogy. :)

As ive said above, i think Mccain gave up a long, long time ago and has basically let campaign run off with this insanity by itself. I think this notion of "appearances" is right on the money.

And furthermore, i think on some level that the old Mccain is laughing...

The old Mccain used to trash campaigns like this. The old Mccain used to call the intolerance and divisive politics of the religious-right "unamerican." The old Mccain used to truly want to be seen as honorable.

These guys he surrounded himself with forced him to drop Lieberman and to take Sarah Palin.

I think on some level... he got angry... and then said to himself "fuck these assholes, this is going to blow up in our faces." And i think he's perhaps had more than a few laughs at how foolish the far-right have shown themselves to really be.

Similarly... i wont be surprised if we find out that Mccain's known of some secret health problem for a couple months.

[Larry in KC]

22. Don't want to sound like McCain... my own poker playing is strictly penny-ante

I agree with several of your ideas, and I think it will be interesting to hear some of the facts leak out in the months following the election.

I'm not sure about the laughter, though; I get the feeling that the emotions McCain is feeling about his presidential run are highly negative.

[TheCoxwain]

13. Bumping up my own thread to highlight update to my Original post

[alcibiades_mystery]

23. It's not even plausible that they're betting the whole campaign on PA

The whole thing is a pathetic and transparent ruse.

They have no hope in PA, and they damn well know it. RNC + McCain ad buys this week in PA are DOWN $140,000, or more than 12%. They're not contesting it. They're just saying they are.