Obama internals only +2 in PA? Anyone seen this?

[nyccitizen]

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/

Apologize if this is a dupe post but didn't see it anywhere yet on DU... don't want to be a concern troll just want to know if this has been discussed/debunked/analyzed...

[IndianaJones]

1. Obama is -5 according to Fred Thompson. nt.

[Whalestoe]

2. Sounds like some rope-a-dope.

[grantcart]

38. yup don't look at OH IN or FL come play in PA -- classic

[BuyingThyme]

3. That was the big topic on PigMan today.

(I just happen to stumble upon it.)

[BeyondGeography]

4. You (conveniently?) left out this part

Obama's Pennsylvania communications director Sean Smith said on Corbett's show that the field organizer who sent the e-mail may have been trying to energize Obama volunteers. Smith wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but he said that the e-mail was sent without permission and that the campaign worker has since been reprimanded.

[CreekDog]

30. probably sent home early with pay

:rofl:

[SurfingAtWork]

5. This is becoming the new PBS poll

[Sodan]

10. oh is that AP poll dead already - good!

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Yeah, that's why Obama is reducing ad buys in PA in the coming week by $370,000

Because he's only up 2% in his "internals"

:rofl:

Come up with a new one.


PA Ad Buys for the coming week (previous week in parens):

Obama 2,970,000 (3,337,000)
McCain: 1,811,000 (1,780,000)
RNC: 255,000 (425,000)

Obama reducing PA by $370,000
RNC reducing ad buys $150,000

McCain Increasing Ad Buys $31,000

[hogwyld]

17. Why is he reducing his ad buys?

Money trouble???:sarcasm:

[Sodan]

7. read the comments on that site.. they're crazy.

[nyccitizen]

35. Figured it was bogus but you never know... nt

[Ashy Larry]

8. Just McCain supporters trying to rally the troops.

[Politics_Guy25]

12. This is an obvious concern troll post

It'sn a clear GOP talking point. I've seen it on other websites.

Nice try!

[Jersey Devil]

9. It's based on an LA Times blog piece

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/pennsylvania-in.html

Also posted on at Politico: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Pennsylvania_scenario_20.html?showall

If you listen to the taped phone interview linked at the LA Times, however, it is pretty clear that what happened is some low level Obama staffer in PA was trying to motivate workers not to get complacent and made up some stuff about internal polls being real close and accidentally sent a copy of the email to a reporter.

[Bread and Circus]

11. you're not familiar with this post by any chance?

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/


McCain is going to win and then hopefully the race baiters and socialists will all go away quietly. I doubt it - they have shown no class whatsoever thus far - as in the last three elections.

get used to it - the democratic party is too splintered with old worn out talking points and time after time after time you lose.

This year you got a slick double talking new Marx dressed in a clean suit. Result will be the same - Democrats lose!

Comment by Robert NYC — October 22, 2008 @ 4:45 pm

============================================================

I'm sure you are very "concerned".

[WI_DEM]

16. Good catch!

[melody]

21. good work!! n/t

[CreekDog]

33. The OP was 5 minutes after that comment on the other blog

inquiring minds...

[nyccitizen]

34. My name is not Robert and that was not me...

I am not a troll and if you looked at my past post history you would know that.

[ORDem]

49. BS. n/t

[nyccitizen]

52. Okay, you got me...

I joined DU several months ago and wrote nearly 250 pro-Obama posts just as an elaborate ruse to throw you off so I could ultimately post this, where I asked people to clarify the existence of a not-so-favorable poll. You got me.

You're an idiot.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

54. That's him

Also on Youtube:

nyccitizen (1 week ago) Show Hide
0
Marked as spam
Reply
As a NYC resident that worked in the WTC, I narrowly escaped.I lost several friends in the tragedy. You are a disgusting person for using footage of a person leaping to their death to escape the flames from the jet crash to forward yr political viewpoint.

As one of the few Republicans living in this city, it is the people like you that use this tragedy for manipulation rather than focus on the issues on how t/candidates differ on issues that anger me. Stick to the issues you ignorant fucktard.

[NWHarkness]

13. Some staffer lowballing expectations

According to the Obama campaign, a field organizer told his volunteers that they were only up to in order to motivate them to not get complacent. Somehow, the press got his email.

[enough]

19. I got a near-hysterical e-mail from the local Obama staffer in my backwater area of SE PA.

Saying that McCain is planning to go all out to either win or steal PA and everyone needs to go all out. Not her usual tone at all. (Usually she is up-beat and enthusiastic, motivated but confident, not hysterical.)

[RichGirl]

14. Didn't this come up weeks ago.

Even if those were the numbers then, we can't assume they have stayed static. If this is the case, why isn't Obama spending more time in PA. It's also odd that a state that voted for both Gore and Kerry is lower than Virginia, a state that hasn't voted for a dem in over 40 years. They'be got Rendell and Casey and Biden is considered an honorary senator there.

[WCGreen]

25. From last week....

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703/752/630799

[WI_DEM]

15. And so that is why Obama isn't planning to make any more visits to PA

and concentrate on red states during the final two weeks?

[secondwind]

18. I heard that Rendell is concerned, and is asking Obama to come to PA, since

he hasn't been there since 10/11.

[melody]

22. Yeah, that's why Obama hasn't scheduled any PA trips and has scaled back ads in PA

Because their internals know far less about it than Rendell.

Okay.

[melody]

20. I smell pizza!

See also: Bread and Circus' post above.

[RagAss]

23. Our special tonight is Mushroom and Onion.....

[sarahdemva]

24. Obama has a solid 8 point lead nationally

that means he is 10+ ahead in PA.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. If Obama felt he was only up two in PA, don't you think he'd be staked out there?

[amborin]

43. some of his campaign organizers

have URGED him to spend more time there

[Drunken Irishman]

46. It doesn't matter what they want.

If the internal poll showed Obama only up two, HE would campaign there. Stop acting like Obama is stupid.

[Douglas Carpenter]

27. The Real Clear Politics average of nonpartisan polls: Obama 51.7/McCain 40.3 = Obama + 11.4

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

Intrade Prediction Market shows the Markets believe Sen. Obama has a 85% chance of winning Pennsylvania and Sen. McCain has a 14.5% chance of winning Pennsylvania

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=Pennsylvania

[jesus_of_suburbia]

28. I think Murtha calling them racists was for a reason. He knows something we don't. WORK WORK WORK!

We can't believe this election is going to be easy.


Murtha saying his voters are racist and Rendell begging Obama to come back.

They know something we don't.



Donate if you can... if not, get out and encourage neighbors to vote Barack!

[CreekDog]

29. from the article:

"Smith wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but he said that the e-mail was sent without permission and that the campaign worker has since been reprimanded."

reprimanded with a piece of pie. :rofl:

(never seen these guys leak anything without a purpose...remember those debate briefing notes that got "leaked"...they read like a press release)

[Connie_Corleone]

31. Obama would be spending the majority of his time there if that was true.

[amborin]

44. he's

been URGED to by his campaign

[dennis4868]

50. who in his...

campaign has urged him? Just don't make things up....

[amborin]

55. not

making things up

was in an article i posted yesterday

[Warren DeMontague]

32. O NOES!

Jesus must have rode into town on his dinosaur, and told everyone in PA what a horrible Marxist in a suit Obama is.

Eh?

[nyccitizen]

36. Fine, call me a troll if you want but Rendell said...

...publicly that he was concerned, that he wanted Obama back in PA. Why would the State's Democratic Governor say that if he thought it was in the bag?

[GarbagemanLB]

37. Maybe so there is no overconfidence? Do you honestly think it is that close with the Obama campaign

saying they won't be returning to PA?

Look at their actions, not their words.

[mvd]

40. Agreed

I was worried when I first heard about the 2%, but now that it has been debunked and Obama is not returning (even with all that money left,) I feel a lot better.

[grantcart]

39. rope a dope -- come and spend money in PA instead of OH IN and FL

They have been doing it all campaign and McCain has been falling for it all along.

I hope they go to PA and spend their little hearts out lol.

[CreekDog]

41. you think Rendell talks strategy with Obama through the media?

i mean do you really? :rofl:

[dennis4868]

53. and who knows if Obama...

is talking strategy at all with Rendell...he probably does not trust him after the primaries...

LISTEN PEOPLE....OABAMA IS FUCKING SMART! IF HE THOUGHT FOR A MINUTE HE NEEDED TO BE IN PENN BECAUSE OF TIGHTENING IN THE POLLS HE WOULD BE THERE FASTER THAT HE COULD EAT A CHEESE STEAK SANDWHICH....HE KNOWS WHAT HE IS DOING....JUST SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE SHOW :-)

[amborin]

42. see here:

<http://www.openleft.com/viewQuickHits.do#5224>


Obama Poll Shows Tight Race in Pennsylvania? (tyva)

Political Wire cites "an internal poll from Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania has him just two points ahead of Sen. John McCain, according to The Hill."

"WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race." The Obama campaign "wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but said that the e-mail was sent without permission."

Posted at Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:09



"The McCain Pennsylvania Theory
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:00



OK, so commenters in the previous swing state thread have laid out what they see as McCain's rationale behind targeting Pennsylvania instead of Colorado, and I can kind of see how it makes sense. In the extended entry, I provide a full explanation.
Chris Bowers :: The McCain Pennsylvania Theory
Here is the McCain Pennsylvania targeting theory, as best as I can tell:

McCain has to win a state where he is way down: Right now, McCain is more than 8.0% behind in states worth 277 electoral votes (the Kerry and / or Gore states plus Virginia). With only 270 needed to win, and 269 to tie, he has to target a state where he trails by more than 8%. That isn't even an option.


Take a look at the 8% or more states: A quick glance at last week's polling from the 277 8% or more states (the Kerry and / or Gore plus Virginia states) doesn't show a pretty picture for McCain. A short list of states quickly emerges:

State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls

New Hampshire 4 50.0% 43.0% +7.0% 1
Virginia 13 51.8% 43.8% +8.0% 4
Minnesota 10 51.3% 41.3% +10.0% 3
New Mexico 5 53.5% 43.5% +10.0% 2
Pennsylvania 21 51.7% 40.7% +11.0% 3
Wisconsin 10 51.0% 39.3% +11.7% 3

If a state isn't listed here, then it is even worse for McCain. These six, crappy options are his only choices.



Why not New Hampshire? McCain has did well in New Hampshire during the 2000 and 2004 primaries, and it is also the closest state here. So, why not New Hampshire? Because he needs to pick up at least nine electoral votes to crack the 277 8%+ Obama states, and New Hampshire is only worth 4.

Why not Virginia?: Why doesn't McCain just target Virginia, which is worth enough electoral votes and closer than Pennsylvania? Because Virginia is the most early voting of all early voting states, with early voting starting one month ago. During that month, Obama has repeatedly and continually posted large leads in Virginia. By comparison, Pennsylvania has no early voting (except for no-fault absentee). Given that, compared to Virginia, a far lower percentage of the vote in Pennsylvania has already been cast, a 3% difference in polling doesn't really mean anything. Easier to come back from an 11% deficit with 3% of the vote in than a 8% deficit with 30% of the vote in.

Why not Minnesota? Or Wisconsin? Or New Hampshire and New Mexico? Why shouldn't McCain just target a smaller, cheaper combination of states that reaches nine electoral votes, instead of Pennsylvania? The reason is Colorado, and it's nine electoral votes. While McCain only trails by 5% in Colorado, some estimates are that 50% of Colorado votes will be early votes. This means that McCain needs a way to overcome not only the 277, but potentially 277 + 9 (Colorado). The only state on this list that provides that sort of coverage is Pennsylvania.
So, when presented with a list of crappy choices, Pennsylvania is the best option for McCain. It's large size and lack of early voting provides McCain with potential time and a potential margin no other targeting strategy can. He has to win a state where he currently trails by 8% or more, and Pennsylvania is clearly the best option.

During this time, please ignore anything Ed Rendell says, as he is a long-time concern troll for Democrats (remember: he loves Rick Santorum, Justice Alito, and Fox News, but hates Social Security). On top of it all, any trolling Governor in his position would write dozens of memos to cover his ass in the event of a Pennsylvania debacle. If, somehow, it all goes wrong, Rendell can at least say to Fox News "hey, I warned Obama to campaign more in Pennsylvania."


In summary, early voting and large poll deficits have forced McCain into a desperate play for Pennsylvania. There is basically no way it will work, but at least I will have a good way to rally the other committee people at our ward meeting on Thursday evening. That, and the World Series will unfortunately collide with the election now.


Oh, and any commenters (such as Jack Murtha) who might be tempted to say that McCain's strategy is also based on Pennsylvanians somehow being more racist than the rest of the country, please just shut up right now."

[mvd]

45. Speaking of PA polls, I was just polled by Quinnipiac!

They must have a PA coming out soon. I was happy to answer in favor of Obama.

[Dawgs]

47. If that's true then why should we trust any of the state polls?

Obama has been consistently up in PA since 9/23. He's been up by 10+ in 7 of the last 9 polls.

For now, I think I'll trust that ALL of the pollsters are doing a fairly good job.

[WinkyDink]

48. Swill and tripe.

[LibraLiz1973]

51. I live in PA, and Actually he is -13

days until he kicks McCain's ass back to the stone age.