Saw an interview with a sheet-wearing self-avowed racist the
other day where he claimed to be undecided and it got me
thinking about the polls in general. Taking the dude at his
word, I'm willing to believe he hasn't decided to vote for
McCain--I can't believe he's really considering voting for
Obama. He'll almost certainly vote McCain, not vote, or choose
a "protest" vote. In other words, he isn't a true
swing voter. This got me thinking more about the polls and the
polls I've participated in.
I've already mailed my Oregon ballot in for Obama, so I'm
obviously not undecided, in fact, I'm committed. However, my
Mom is still holding onto her ballot, intending to vote for
Obama. In her 70s, she doesn't like McCain or republicans, but
is not exactly 100% comfortable with Obama either. In almost
any poll, my Mom and I would both count for Obama, especially
if I'd been polled a couple days before sending my ballot. We
are not the same--Obama has my vote sewn up, my Mom will vote
for him, unless something changes her mind in the next week or
so.
The point is that no poll lead is truly safe without
drilling deep into the statistics. Theoretically, if you had a
state that polls 50.1 for Obama, 49.9 for McCain, but that was
very polarized, i.e., everyone was like me and unshakable,
that would truly be a dark blue state despite almost perfectly
fitting the definition of a tossup. Likewise, a seemingly huge
advantage like we have in Pennsylvania, could be much less
than it appears if all (or even many) the Obama poll answers
come from folks like my Mom.
As far as I know, none of the EV sites out there really
account for this. They talk about "states leaning"
red or blue, but it isn't the states that vote, it is the
people in them.
At this point, how many voters are like me, and how many are
like my Mom?