What time will election be called and what state will put Obama over?

[I LIKE IKE 61]

My prediction:

It will not be over by 9:00 pm. This night will stretch untill 11:00 before we have a projected winner. California will most likely put Obama over the top. Networks are not going to want to call states early. They will be nervous about calling any close states. So many close states in the East will bottleneck election night to some degree. I foresee 10:30 with Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana still not called yet. Add to that the 10:00 states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana still not called. West closes at 11:00.

[cosmicone]

1. 7:15 PM Eastern

Virginia polls close at 7 PM. If Obama wins Virginia, it is over for McLame. There is no combination that can help McLame without winning Virginia.

[VWolf]

3. Agreed. The only variable is

what time VA will be called for Obama.

The networks are already preparing for an early evening.

[BlooInBloo]

23. "There is no combination that can help McLame without winning Virginia." - Sure there are...

lots of em.

They're just all astronomically unlikely.

[scheming daemons]

2. We'll know it is over when they call PA and VA between 8-9pm eastern... but....

It will OFFICIALLY be over (270 EVs) when Nevada, Colorado, and NM are called.

CA, WA, and OR will be gravy.

[VWolf]

4. Which leads to the next question:

At what point will McCain concede?

Ya think he'll contest any states?

[nycmjkfan]

5. 6:15pm

Indiana polls close at 6pm est. If Obama wins that, it will be a landslide!

[cosmicone]

11. Obama will probably not carry Indiana n/t

[IndianaJones]

17. i think he will. nt.

[IndianaJones]

16. I'm on central..7 pm EST. nt.

[Thrill]

6. Whatever time the Missouri Polls close

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. I figure VA, FL, PA, and NC will wind up getting called around the same time.

So it'll be early to bed for me.

[Lex]

8. The second they call NC for Obama, then it's ALL OVER because

if he wins in NC, then he's essentially won (even if the West Coast hasn't reported yet).

NC will be a bellwether.

[sampsonblk]

9. Early

The news media won't say it, but its over as soon as the first strongly red state comes in big for Obama.

[hedgehog]

10. I predict the polls will close in California before they close in Ohio.

The various election boards in Ohio never bought any extra machines for this election. How'd you like to be the poll worker that has to go out and tell 500 people standing in line that the polls close in 5 minutes? Ain't gonna happen, IMO!

[tedoll78]

12. In order..

Indiana. It's the first state (along with Kentucky) whose polls close first. If Indiana goes, it's going to be a VERY early night, and a very blue map.

If not Indiana, then Virginia and North Carolina are the next states to watch. If Obama wins either (more likely Virginia), then it's over. Catastrophe would have to strike for him to lose at that point.

And the networks will drag their feet on a declaration of victory for quite a while, just to keep viewers tuned-in.

[DemNoir]

13. Early no later than 9

The first call of a Bush state for Obama and it will be all over but the whining and pontificating.

[crankychatter]

14. I don't gamble and I don't drink

if I never won, it wouldn't be a problem

I do find Giraffes to be oddly erotic

crankychatter <<< tries to fit in

[Wolfies Revenge]

15. when you see doom and gloom on FAUX faces

my guess is late afternoon/early evening when they get a whiff of early exit polling.

[KittyWampus]

18. One week later. After multiple legal challenges are either resolved or abandoned

[Stagecoach]

19. Here's my hour by hour scenario

7:00pm Eastern

These states get called for Obama
New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia

These states get called for McCain
Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

At this point it'll be Obama 20, McCain 31

7:30pm Eastern
West Virginia gets called for McCain

That makes it Obama 20, McCain 36

8:00pm Eastern

These states get called for Obama
Connecticut, District of Columbia, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsyvlania, Rhode Island

These states get called for McCain
Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas

At this point, it's Obama 142, McCain 106

8:30pm Eastern
Arkansas goes to McCain....to make it Obama 142, McCain 112

9:00pm Eastern

These states get called for Obama
Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin

These states get called for McCain
Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wyoming

At this point, it's Obama 202, McCain 148

10:00pm Eastern

These states get called for Obama
Iowa

These states get called for McCain
Indiana, Idaho, Montana, Utah

At this point it's Obama 209, McCain 171

11:00pm Eastern

These states get called for Obama
Florida, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington

These states get called for McCain
None

That'll make it Obama 313, McCain 171

By 11:30pm McCain is giving his concession speech.

[Patsy Stone]

22. You forgot Missouri

Which will make it an earlier concession speech, I think.

[JimGinPA]

20. When They Call Virginia - It Won't Matter Though...

I'm sure I'll be up late anyway - I'll be too excited to sleep!

[I LIKE IKE 61]

21. Thanks for the responses.

As I can see there is plenty to consider. It will help how I see election night. Virginia seems to be the big one to watch, then North Carolina. Indiana will get called early? If its close it might take awhile. The Virginia Senate race was not call a few years ago until very late. If Virginia is close wouldn't they hold back? I think North Carolina is going to take awhile. Ohio is going to take a long time because its going to be close and also because of 2004 the networks are not going to want to call it untill they are sure. Also Florida is going to drag at least some. Networks are "gun shy" about calling close races.

I still say 11:00 and California, Washington state, and Oregon will decide it.

[BlooInBloo]

24. I'll be up late drinking. Already called off work the next day.