Why do people keep saying Kerry was ahead in the polls in the weeks running up to the election?

[harry_pothead]

When he wasn't.

Only a HANDFUL of October 2004 polls showed Kerry to be ahead -- 5 to be exact -- compared to 32 that showed Bush ahead. Not only that, but several polls showed Bush up by 6 or more, compared to Kerry who's best was a *single* AP/Ipsos done on 10/4-10/6 showing him up 4. September 2004 was worse. Only two polls had Kerry up, +1 and +2 respectively, compared to yet another 32 that showed Bush up, most of them by 8 or more with a few showing him with a 10+ lead. The polls that showed Kerry ahead, both in Sept and Oct, were most likely statistical outliers.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

The last time Kerry polled consistently ahead was in mid August, right before the swiftboat attacks started. In September Bush was running sizable leads of around 6 to 7 points. Kerry was able to cut it to the 2-4 range in October (probably from doing well in the debates) but still did not catch up to the chimp.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

RCP's 2004 state by state projection was accurate save WI. (they projected it for Bush)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Final.html

The point isn't to rehash 2004 -- it was a terrible election outcome with disastrous results for the country -- the point is to remind us all that the same polls and electoral map projections which are now showing a very likely Obama victory did *NOT* show Kerry ahead at the same time 4 years ago like some people seem to think. Nor is there any evidence that the Bradley Effect has been a factor recently. Bobby Jindal, Harold Ford, Michael Steele, all did equal or better than the final polls indicated. So did Barack Obama in the primaries on average. (NH being an outlier and weird situation)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Our lead is real.

Obama/Biden 2008.
Go dems for house and senate.
NO on 8.

[Lint Head]

1. I refudse to watch it.

:dem:

[Miss Chybil]

2. Watch what? nt

[Phredicles]

3. Yep, same goes for Gore. I don't know if

people are honestly mis-remembering things or if :tinfoilhat: it's just what they want us to think happened:tinfoilhat:.

Obama his a great man, a great statesman, and a great campaigner. Gore and Kerry were two of those only.