Zogby 10/19: O48, M45

[BzaDem]

http://www.zogby.com/

[WeDidIt]

1. Zogby

'nuff said.

[shotten99]

2. Whatcha guys think?

Is it getting closer or are they playing w/ numbers?

[anonymous171]

3. Zogby is playing with the numbers in order to manipulate press coverage.

[Zynx]

4. Zogby only gives Democrats a 2 point party ID edge. Not very likely.

If Obama has 88% of the Dem vote and leads among indies by 8 as he claims, his lead is a lot bigger than 3 points.

[MidwestTransplant]

15. Are you sure about his party ID numbers? I couldn't find them.

[Teaser]

16. yeah, it's a two point difference

crazy weighting

[GrizzlyMan]

18. Where did you find that, I searched high and low and couldn't

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. It's Behind The Firewall For Paying Customers

~

[Teaser]

23. you pays your money

you gets your weightings.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Zo(m)by Is Just A Crap Pollster

And what's up with rounding to the tenth when there's a 3.1 MOE...

F-king buffonery...

[Zynx]

46. Math is your friend. You can actually figure it out Algebraically.

[Marsala]

7. It's a statistically insignificant change

Zogby numbers are doing the random walk, amplified by his poor party ID.

[Democat]

40. Here's the problem with that logic.

If McCain makes a "statistically insignificant" gain every day, he can be ahead of Obama in less than a week!

[CreekDog]

10. a point or two closer, yes

besides, McCain does better on the weekends when his voters are at home watching Matlock.

[gaiilonfong]

5. that idiot zogby said independents

like getting their info from David Letterman and the Newman dinner from the other night, which is why McSame is doing much better now with indys
what a friggin loser
LMAO

This poll is JUNK

[DeepBlueC]

6. and Letterman gave a ringing endorsement...?

are you fucking kidding me? I thought he nailed him to the wall.

[4lbs]

8. Zogby said that some undecided independents moved towards McCain.

The reason given was McCain's comedy speech at that Al Smith charity dinner and his "I Screwed Up!" appearance on Letterman.

[anonymous171]

9. Wait a minute. So is he just adjusting the numbers as he sees fit or

is he taking another poll?

[4lbs]

13. He's polling daily.

It's the same polling methodology.

Tomorrow's 10/19 numbers are a rolling 3-day average. So it's the average of 10/16, 10/17, and 10/18.

He's just stating what he thinks is the reason that it seems to be tightening and noting that fewer people are undecided from before, notably among Independents.

[Teaser]

14. He's smoking Lysol

.

[silverojo]

21. I knew this would happen.

The media spin is always in favor of the Repukes. Let's just hope Obama can get people focused on the real issues again. Independent voters have a tendency to get distracted by something shiny, which is why they're so fucking fickle.

[regnaD kciN]

33. It's even weirder than that...

...he says that Obama's edge among independents dropped in half, from 16% to 8%.

However since this is a three-day tracker, that would imply that, in today's sample, McCain gained 24 points over his performance in Wednesday's sample. If true, that's an epic shift of mammoth proportions, which (if repeated) should give McCain the lead in the Zogby poll by Tuesday at the latest. I'm curious as to whether any other of the Sunday tracking polls (which, of course, won't release their results until later today) pick up such a huge shift among independents. And, if not, can we all assume Zogby is full of it?

[Realityhack]

11. Zogby is not a reliable source n/t

[VoodooGuru]

12. Zog, shmog. nt.

[mvd]

17. Zogby is an arrogant hack as far as I'm concerned

His polls are a joke.

[Fluffdaddy]

20. Damn, I'm worrying again

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. You Should Be Concerned But It Has Nothing To Do With Z(om)by

I suspect this race will be closer than we expect.

[Lorien]

24. How can it be? that's the real question

my whole street is covered in Obama signs-and I'm in Florida! After everything that's happened I just don't see how it can be even remotely close.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Don't Know

I do know John Kennedy beat Richard Noxon 49.7 to 49.6 so anything is possible...

[Azathoth]

26. Obama is holding steady -- undecideds are starting to break for McCain

The national numbers are gonna tighten even more in the next two weeks. The state polling is really all that matters now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. The State Polling Is A Sub Set Of Nat'l Polling

If McSame is closing in nat'l polls he must be closing in state polls as well...

That being said I am not going to freak out over the notoriously unreliable Zo(m)by Poll...

[Teaser]

29. actually no

It is an overlapping set, perhaps, but no national poll polls every state with enough statistical depth to really claim that one is a subset or superset of another.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Think I Said It Wrong

What I meant if Candidate A is moving up in national polls he presumably is moving up in state polls as well because it is part of the same universe of voters... But I guess the argument remains that Candidate A is only improving his position in states he is already winning...

I am not going to make too many inferences on a poll from a pollster with a checkered past who is more pundit than pollster...

I expect a close race and an Obama win...Nothing has shaken me from that expectation...

[regnaD kciN]

39. Not necessarily...

If one candidate is moving up in national polls, it is safe to assume that he or she is gaining in some state polls...but which ones? If most of McCain's pickup is in deep-red or deep-blue states, it's not going to make much difference.

Personally, unless the next seventeen days can show McCain closing dramatically in all of a) Virginia, b) Florida, and c) Colorado, any gains he may make are liable to be meaningless. As far as I can tell, if Obama wins any of those three states (or Ohio, North Carolina, or Missouri for that matter, but I think those more likely to swing to McCain in the final weeks), the race is over.

[Fluffdaddy]

31. Damn DSB, you are more of a pessimist then I am

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. ?

I think Obama win ...I just think it will be close...


My favorite example is 76...The enviroment was horrible for Republicans that year and Gerald Ford came within 30,000 votes in Ohio and I believe Hawaii of beating Jimmy Carter who at one time had a 33 point lead... In fact the final Gallup Poll showed Jimmy Carter losing....

[Fluffdaddy]

35. Hell it's 3:30 in the am and I just got in from drinking all night, What the hell do I know?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I Might As Well Stay Up For MTP

Colin Powell's endorsement if it comes will be good for a couple of news cycles...

[Fluffdaddy]

41. I know I will not be able to hang. I'm setting up my dvr now.

[Azathoth]

34. Not necessarily

A lot of the movement toward McCain in the national polls is likely coming from red states, including states like Georgia and West Virginia where "undecideds" are really just demoralized Republicans (or Republican-voting Dems) looking for an excuse to vote McCain. As the election gets closer, they're gonna suddenly start finding those excuses, including stupid shit like McCain's performance at the Al Smith dinner.

As far as Zo(m)by goes, this is a guy who predicted Obama would win the California primary by double digits. 'Nuff said.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Yeah-I Addressed The "Piling On" In Post Thirty

After the CA debacle he said his internals showed a tightening for Clinton when in actuality they showed a widening for Obama...

I expect a close race but it has nothing to do with Zo(m)by...


Also, Zo(m)by's punditry is inane or reductionist at best...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Yeah-I Addressed The "Piling On" In Post Thirty

After the CA debacle he said his internals showed a tightening for Clinton when in actuality they showed a widening for Obama...

I expect a close race but it has nothing to do with Zo(m)by...


Also, Zo(m)by's punditry is inane or reductionist at best...

[Democat]

42. Holding steady at 48% won't cut it

Obama's going to have to gain a bit to win - holding at 48 while undecideds break for McCain could mean big trouble.

I agree about the state polls, but they seem to follow the national polls and if it's timed just wrong, we might not see the problem until it's too late to fix it. Of course, I'm sure Obama's polls tell him a lot more than Zogby, so hopefully he's working on whatever it is that needs to be worked on.

I suspect the negative campaigning by McCain has taken some toll, regardless of how much people say they don't like it. It's very hard to believe that negative ads make no difference after 2000 and 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Obama Needs To Be Around 50....

After all Barr, Nad(i)r, Mckinney , and the other flotsam and jetsam are going to get some votes...

[Political Heretic]

44. PLEASE FOLKS - ONLY STATE POLLS MATTER THREE WEEKS OUT

This isn't a national election.

It is an election in which the electoral college choses the president.

Please shift from posting every national poll out there to daily swing state polls.

State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
Ohio (20) 48.9 45.7 Obama +3.2 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Nevada (5) 49.0 44.8 Obama +4.2 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
North Carolina (15) 47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Missouri (11) 49.3 46.8 Obama +2.5 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
West Virginia (5) 46.3 47.8 McCain +1.5 Toss Up Bush +12.9 Bush +6.3
Florida (27) 49.2 46.0 Obama +3.2 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Indiana (11) 45.0 48.8 McCain +3.8 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Colorado (9) 50.6 44.6 Obama +6.0 Leaning Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Georgia (15) 44.2 51.0 McCain +6.8 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
Virginia (13) 51.8 43.7 Obama +8.1 Leaning Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
New Mexico (5) 50.7 42.3 Obama +8.4 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
Minnesota (10) 51.3 42.6 Obama +8.7 Leaning Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
Washington (11) 50.3 41.0 Obama +9.3 Solid Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Wisconsin (10) 52.4 42.0 Obama +10.4 Solid Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Michigan (17) 50.7 40.2 Obama +10.5 Solid Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Montana (3) 42.8 52.0 McCain +9.2 Solid Bush +20.5 Bush +25.0
Oregon (7) 54.7 40.0 Obama +14.7 Solid Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Iowa (7) 52.8 41.0 Obama +11.8 Solid Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
New Jersey (15) 50.8 39.5 Obama +11.3 Solid Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
New Hampshire (4) 52.0 41.6 Obama +10.4 Solid Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
Pennsylvania (21) 53.8 39.8 Obama +14.0 Solid Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Texas (34) 40.3 53.7 McCain +13.4 Solid Bush +22.9 Bush +21.3
California (55) 53.3 38.8 Obama +14.5 Solid Kerry +9.9 Gore +11.8
Massachusetts (12) 56.0 35.7 Obama +20.3 Solid Kerry +25.1 Gore +27.3
Mississippi (6) 41.7 52.0 McCain +10.3 Solid Bush +19.6 Bush +16.9
Kentucky (8) 39.5 54.3 McCain +14.8 Solid Bush +19.9 Bush +15.1
Kansas (6) 40.7 52.7 McCain +12.0 Solid Bush +25.4 Bush +20.8
Louisiana (9) 38.3 53.7 McCain +15.4 Solid Bush +14.5 Bush +7.7
Arkansas (6) 33.0 49.3 McCain +16.3 Solid Bush +9.7 Bush +5.4
Connecticut (7) 55.8 36.8 Obama +19.0 Solid Kerry +10.3 Gore +17.5
New York (31) 59.7 34.7 Obama +25.0 Solid Kerry +18.3 Gore +25.0
Tennessee (11) 38.0 53.7 McCain +15.7 Solid Bush +14.3 Bush +3.9
Alabama (9) 33.5 57.3 McCain +23.8 Solid Bush +25.7 Bush +14.9
Arizona (10) 39.0 50.3 McCain +11.3 Solid Bush +10.5 Bush +6.3
Illinois (21) 55.0 37.3 Obama +17.7 Solid Kerry +10.4 Gore +12.0

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. We Know That But The Nat'l Polls Are Fresher

It would be nice if there was fifty state tracking but there isn't...

I guess the cost would be prohibitive...

[Jennicut]

47. If Zogby was right then we would be watching John Kerry run his reelection campaign.

Sorry, Zogby is a fool and totally irrelevant. Why anyone posts his polls here is beyond me except maybe to get a good laugh.